IEA：預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議遵守率達(dá)108%

據(jù)7月10日Trend報(bào)道，如果歐佩克+繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)，全球石油供應(yīng)在2020年將減少710萬桶/天，明年將出現(xiàn)170萬桶/天的溫和復(fù)蘇。6月份全球石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降，比4月份的水平低1370萬桶/天。歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的遵守率為108%。這包括沙特的額外減產(chǎn)，減產(chǎn)量超過要求100萬桶/天，將歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量降至近30年來的最低點(diǎn)。

據(jù)國際能源署（IEA）稱，歐佩克+的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)得到了市場推動(dòng)的大幅減產(chǎn)的補(bǔ)充，主要是美國。4月份美國石油總產(chǎn)量較3月份下降近100萬桶/天，我們預(yù)計(jì)5月和6月將分別出現(xiàn)130萬桶/天和50萬桶/天的進(jìn)一步逐月下降。不過，今年下半年供應(yīng)可能開始增長。

美國產(chǎn)量觸底回升，然后緩慢增長，而歐佩克+成員國將從8月起將現(xiàn)有減產(chǎn)幅度放寬約200萬桶/天。

煉油利潤率還將受到非常疲弱的第二季度主要產(chǎn)品庫存過剩的挑戰(zhàn)。預(yù)計(jì)2020年全球煉油廠日產(chǎn)量將減少640萬桶，至7510萬桶/天，2021年將增加470萬桶/天。

6月份原油價(jià)格連續(xù)第二個(gè)月上漲。北海原油期貨價(jià)格在38- 43美元/桶之間波動(dòng)，受基本面收緊的支撐，但受當(dāng)前形勢和經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的限制。到7月初，油價(jià)穩(wěn)守在43美元/桶上方。近期較平淡的升水將刺激原油庫存的上漲。由于庫存充足，成品油價(jià)格落后于原油，擠壓了煉油廠利潤。運(yùn)費(fèi)在本月繼續(xù)下降。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Trend

原文如下：

IEA estimates 108% compliance rate with OPEC+ agreement

If the OPEC+ cuts stay in place as agreed, global supply could fall by 7.1 mb/d in 2020 before seeing a modest recovery of 1.7 mb/d next year, Trend reports with reference to the Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“Global oil production fell sharply in June to stand 13.7 mb/d below the April level. The compliance rate with the OPEC+ supply agreement was 108 percent. This includes over-performance by Saudi Arabia which cut production by 1 mb/d more than required, reducing OPEC crude output to its lowest point in nearly three decades,” reads the IEA report.

This solid performance by the OPEC+ group has been supplemented by substantial market-driven cuts, mainly in the United States, according to the IEA.

“Total US oil production fell by nearly 1 mb/d in April versus March and we estimate that May and June will see further month- on-month falls of 1.3 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, respectively. However, in the second half of the year supply could start to grow: we see US production bottoming out and then slowly growing and OPEC+ countries are set to ease their existing cut by around 2 mb/d from August.

“Refining margins will also be challenged by a major product stocks overhang from the very weak 2Q20. Global refinery runs are forecast to fall by 6.4 mb/d in 2020 to 75.1 mb/d and increase by 4.7 mb/d in 2021,” reads the report.

“Crude prices increased in June for the second successive month. North Sea Dated prices oscillated between $38-$43/bbl, supported by tighter fundamentals but capped by rising numbers of Covid-19 cases and economic uncertainty. By early July, prices were firmly above $43/bbl. The flatter contango seen recently will encourage crude stock draws. With ample stocks, product prices lagged crude, squeezing cracks and refinery margins. Freight rates continued to ease over the month,” said the IEA.