7月石油市場或將動蕩不安

據(jù)7月13日報道，油價在周末回升，如果說周五的油價和疫情有一絲樂觀的話，那就是remdesivir(瑞德西韋)藥物的消息。然而，盡管有好消息，但在美國病毒病例日益激增的情況下，仍面臨巨大風險。

亞洲早盤油價下跌，交易商將注意力轉向本周舉行的歐佩克最高產油國會議，會議可能會啟動目前的協(xié)議計劃，即開始縮減已有效穩(wěn)定市場的大規(guī)模減產。然而，在不引發(fā)“減產規(guī)模縮減恐慌”的情況下做到這一點仍然是一個挑戰(zhàn)。

鑒于全球病毒病例的上升，這表明石油市場仍處于危機狀態(tài)，歐佩克是否會像專家所要求的那樣，延長減產，為市場再提供一個多月的回旋余地或者會將目前減產目標下調，這兩種情況都可能對油價產生有利的影響。后一種選擇將使歐佩克能夠以更量化的實時指標逐步擴大產量，而不是依賴于回溯的指標。

7月對石油來說可能是個不穩(wěn)定的月份。最近美國及其它地區(qū)感染人數(shù)激增，使需求風險再度成為關注焦點。在減產計劃按初始階段規(guī)模延長了一個月后，歐佩克計劃在下月放松減產，加上美國產量可能出現(xiàn)反彈，將在供應方面帶來壓力。

即使是中期的石油牛市狂熱者也必須讓位于市場的短期交易敏感性和傾向。隨著交易量減少，交易區(qū)間繼續(xù)縮小。夏季市場也反映出，目前似乎沒有人對事情抱有多大信心——這是惡性循環(huán)。不確定性越高，活躍度就越低，因為仍被困在唯一的交易中。發(fā)生的事件往往被放大或夸大，最典型的例子就是周五股市的大幅下跌，盡管最近市場和疫情的影響已經脫鉤，但在交易清淡的市場上，雪球效應很快就會開始發(fā)揮作用。

盡管有證據(jù)表明，油價已過了低谷期，供需正在重新平衡，但由于短期基本面可能不明朗，阻力依然存在。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

July May Be A Shaky Month For Oil As Demand Risk Returns To Focus

Oil prices recovered into the weekend, and if there was a glimmer of optimism for oil and the virus on Friday, it was the remdesivir news. However, despite the good news, it remains incredibly torturous digging out from under those US virus case counts that are rising by the day.

Oil prices slipped lower in early Asia as traders turned their focus to the OPEC meeting of top producer this week, The meeting could put in motion the current agreement plans to begin scaling back the massive output cuts that have effectively stabilized markets. However, the challenge remains doing so without causing a "taper tantrum."

Due to the uptick in virus cases globally, which suggests oil markets remain a sick patient, will OPEC+ deliver just what the doctor ordered and provide one more month of wiggle room by extending the historical output cut? Or will we see the introduction of a backwardation target? Either of which could be interpreted quite favorable for oil prices. The latter option would allow OPEC to scale in production gradually on a more quantified real-time measure rather than relying on rolling backdated metrics.

July could be a shaky month for oil. The recent surge in coronavirus infection numbers in the US and elsewhere have brought demand risk back into focus. The planned easing of OPEC+ production cuts next month after a one-month extension of the initial phase of the production cut plan and a potential rebound in US production could add pressure on the supply side of the equation. And factor in Libya lifting the force majeure, it adds another unwanted level of supply-side uncertainty at an extremely critical point in the oil price recovery phase.

Even medium-term oil bull zealots must give way to the markets short term trading sensibilities and proclivities. Trading ranges continue to narrow as exchange volumes dwindle. Summer markets yes but also reflect that no one has seemed to have much conviction on anything right now - the perfect definition of a vicious circle. The more uncertainty grows, the less activity picks up as we remain stuck in the only trade if you have to the environment. Moves that do occur tend to get magnified or blown out of proportion. The perfect example was the significant move down on Friday despite the fact there had been something of a de-coupling of the market and pandemic effects of late. It does not take much for the snowball effect to start in motion in thinly traded markets.

While the evidence suggests we are past the trough for oil and that supply and demand are rebalancing, near-term headwinds remain as the short-term fundamentals are about as muddy as possible.