石油市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇受到燃料需求疲軟沖擊

據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于疫情繼續(xù)蔓延，美國(guó)部分地區(qū)的汽油需求似乎正在減弱。受感染人數(shù)激增影響最嚴(yán)重的州也是一些石油消費(fèi)規(guī)模最大的州，有數(shù)千萬(wàn)名司機(jī)。美國(guó)大部分地區(qū)的汽油消費(fèi)繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)小幅上升。

截至6月19日當(dāng)周，美國(guó)汽油需求回升至每日860萬(wàn)桶，高于4月初的每日500萬(wàn)桶低點(diǎn)。但到6月底，需求略有下滑。周三，EIA報(bào)告稱需求再次上升，盡管該報(bào)告的積極影響被原油庫(kù)存的上升所抵消。目前，美國(guó)汽油日需求量仍比去年低約100萬(wàn)桶。

在世界其他地區(qū)，經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)反彈。德國(guó)的工業(yè)活動(dòng)在6月份加快了步伐，前幾個(gè)月的嚴(yán)格封鎖大幅降低了每天的感染人數(shù)，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體基本上已經(jīng)重新開(kāi)放。

但是美國(guó)很多地區(qū)在沒(méi)有真正控制住病毒的情況下試圖恢復(fù)“正?！?。JBC能源公司在周二的一份報(bào)告中寫道:“目前對(duì)美國(guó)病例總數(shù)做出樂(lè)觀判斷還為時(shí)過(guò)早，尤其是德克薩斯州和佛羅里達(dá)州，昨天已經(jīng)超過(guò)300萬(wàn)?！?/span>

疫情還在印度和巴西以及世界其他地區(qū)繼續(xù)傳播， JBC補(bǔ)充道："全球現(xiàn)有確診病例約為450萬(wàn)，且沒(méi)有放緩跡象，我們的能源產(chǎn)品，尤其是汽油的需求預(yù)期面臨越來(lái)越大的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

一天前，該能源公司下調(diào)了對(duì)美國(guó)汽油需求的預(yù)期，稱復(fù)蘇“越來(lái)越值得懷疑”。JBC稱："我們預(yù)計(jì)需求的下滑幅度將在7月底緩慢增強(qiáng)，較之前的基本預(yù)期減少35萬(wàn)桶/天?！?/span>

渣打銀行表示，目前的原油價(jià)格“包含了很多樂(lè)觀情緒”?？梢钥隙ǖ氖?，石油產(chǎn)量的急劇下降使市場(chǎng)吃緊。市場(chǎng)的供需平衡不再是1億桶/天，而是在一個(gè)少10%的水平上“平衡”。實(shí)際上，7月份的日均需求可能在8900萬(wàn)桶左右，而供應(yīng)量只有8800萬(wàn)桶。據(jù)Rystad Energy稱，石油市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)達(dá)到了一個(gè)新的“低水平平衡”狀態(tài)。

但即使目前石油市場(chǎng)的生產(chǎn)量小于需求，仍然存在大量庫(kù)存積壓，而且病毒還可能導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)再次陷入低迷狀態(tài)。渣打銀行分析師在一份報(bào)告中寫道:“我們認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)正?；枰荛L(zhǎng)時(shí)間，目前需求數(shù)據(jù)的下滑以及需求預(yù)估再度下調(diào)，將使這一過(guò)程更加漫長(zhǎng)。”

世行補(bǔ)充稱，庫(kù)存過(guò)剩將持續(xù)到2022年，但這實(shí)際上取決于歐佩克+是否會(huì)繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持減產(chǎn)。

EIA公布了最新的短期能源展望，上調(diào)了對(duì)汽油需求的預(yù)期。該機(jī)構(gòu)目前預(yù)計(jì)，2020年的汽油消費(fèi)量將比2019年減少210萬(wàn)桶/天，比6月份預(yù)期的減少230萬(wàn)桶/天略有上調(diào)。但如果美國(guó)再次陷入低迷，這種樂(lè)觀的前景將面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

”Rystad Energy的石油市場(chǎng)分析師Louise Dickson在一份聲明中表示：“如果原油庫(kù)存現(xiàn)在繼續(xù)增加，而限制措施放松，交易員們擔(dān)心，如果再次出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的封鎖態(tài)勢(shì)，需求將會(huì)如何，畢竟，石油庫(kù)存已經(jīng)處于相當(dāng)高的水平?！?/span>

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Oil Market Recovery Threatened By Weaker Fuel Demand

Gasoline demand appears to be weakening in some parts of the United States, as the coronavirus continues to spread. The states hardest hit by the surging number of infections are also some of the largest, with tens of millions of drivers. Much of the country continues to see a slight uptick in gasoline consumption.

Gasoline demand in the U.S. climbed back to 8.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the week ending on June 19, up from a low of 5 mb/d in early April. But demand slipped a bit by the end of June as the virus began to spread at a faster clip. On Wednesday, the EIA reported another increase in demand, although the report was offset by a rise in crude inventories, and the slightly muddying caveat that it was a holiday weekend. Gasoline demand is still roughly 1 mb/d below last year’s levels.

In other parts of the world, economies continue to rebound. Germany’s industrial activity picked up pace in June. Strict lockdowns in prior months helped dramatically lower the number of daily infections, and some economies have largely reopened.

But many parts of the U.S. have tried to return to “normal” without ever really getting the virus under control. JBC Energy wrote in a note on Tuesday.

The virus also continues to spread in India and Brazil, among other parts of the world. “With global active cases globally slightly less than 4.5 million and showing no sign of a slowdown, we are increasingly seeing downside risk to our total product (particularly gasoline) demand forecast,” JBC added.

A day earlier, the energy firm cut its forecast for U.S. gasoline demand, calling the recovery “increasingly questionable.” Draconian lockdowns were unlikely, as there is almost no political appetite for strict stay-at-home orders, but nevertheless, the spread of the virus will take a toll as governments implement some restrictions and people voluntarily stay home. “[W]e expect demand declines to strengthen moderately through July,” with demand down by 350,000 bpd relative to a prior base case, JBC said.

Others saw a similar negative turn. Standard Chartered said that current crude oil prices “contain a lot of optimism.”

To be sure, the sharp decline in oil production has tightened up the market. Instead of supply and demand balancing at 100 mb/d, the market is now “balanced” at a level that is 10 percent smaller. In fact, demand could average around 89 mb/d in July, with supply at only 88 mb/d. The oil market has now reached a new “balance at the bottom,” according to Rystad Energy.

But even if the oil market is technically in a deficit, there is still a massive inventory overhang and the threat of another downturn because of the virus. “[W]e think normalisation is going take a long time, and the current drift down in demand data and a renewed drift down in demand forecasts will make that process even longer,” Standard Chartered analysts wrote in a note.

The inventory overhang would last until 2022, the bank added, but that really hinges on OPEC+ sticking with the production cuts until then.

The EIA put out its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, in which it revised up its estimate for gasoline demand. It now sees 2020 gasoline consumption declining by 2.1 mb/d relative to 2019 levels, a slight improvement from June’s estimate of demand being down 2.3 mb/d.

But that sunnier outlook is at risk if the U.S. suffers another downturn.

“If crude stocks are growing now, while restrictions are loose, traders worry about what will happen to demand in the case serious lockdowns come back again. Stocks are already at quite high levels,” Louise Dickson, oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a statement.