石油市場復(fù)蘇受到燃料需求疲軟沖擊

據(jù)今日油價7月9日報道，由于疫情繼續(xù)蔓延，美國部分地區(qū)的汽油需求似乎正在減弱。受感染人數(shù)激增影響最嚴重的州也是一些石油消費規(guī)模最大的州，有數(shù)千萬名司機。美國大部分地區(qū)的汽油消費繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)小幅上升。

截至6月19日當周，美國汽油需求回升至每日860萬桶，高于4月初的每日500萬桶低點。但到6月底，需求略有下滑。周三，EIA報告稱需求再次上升，盡管該報告的積極影響被原油庫存的上升所抵消。目前，美國汽油日需求量仍比去年低約100萬桶。

在世界其他地區(qū)，經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)反彈。德國的工業(yè)活動在6月份加快了步伐，前幾個月的嚴格封鎖大幅降低了每天的感染人數(shù)，一些經(jīng)濟體基本上已經(jīng)重新開放。

但是美國很多地區(qū)在沒有真正控制住病毒的情況下試圖恢復(fù)“正常”。JBC能源公司在周二的一份報告中寫道:“目前對美國病例總數(shù)做出樂觀判斷還為時過早，尤其是德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州，昨天已經(jīng)超過300萬?！?/span>

疫情還在印度和巴西以及世界其他地區(qū)繼續(xù)傳播， JBC補充道："全球現(xiàn)有確診病例約為450萬，且沒有放緩跡象，我們的能源產(chǎn)品，尤其是汽油的需求預(yù)期面臨越來越大的下行風(fēng)險。”

一天前，該能源公司下調(diào)了對美國汽油需求的預(yù)期，稱復(fù)蘇“越來越值得懷疑”。JBC稱："我們預(yù)計需求的下滑幅度將在7月底緩慢增強，較之前的基本預(yù)期減少35萬桶/天。”

渣打銀行表示，目前的原油價格“包含了很多樂觀情緒”?？梢钥隙ǖ氖牵彤a(chǎn)量的急劇下降使市場吃緊。市場的供需平衡不再是1億桶/天，而是在一個少10%的水平上“平衡”。實際上，7月份的日均需求可能在8900萬桶左右，而供應(yīng)量只有8800萬桶。據(jù)Rystad Energy稱，石油市場現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)達到了一個新的“低水平平衡”狀態(tài)。

但即使目前石油市場的生產(chǎn)量小于需求，仍然存在大量庫存積壓，而且病毒還可能導(dǎo)致市場再次陷入低迷狀態(tài)。渣打銀行分析師在一份報告中寫道:“我們認為，經(jīng)濟正?；枰荛L時間，目前需求數(shù)據(jù)的下滑以及需求預(yù)估再度下調(diào)，將使這一過程更加漫長?！?/span>

世行補充稱，庫存過剩將持續(xù)到2022年，但這實際上取決于歐佩克+是否會繼續(xù)堅持減產(chǎn)。

EIA公布了最新的短期能源展望，上調(diào)了對汽油需求的預(yù)期。該機構(gòu)目前預(yù)計，2020年的汽油消費量將比2019年減少210萬桶/天，比6月份預(yù)期的減少230萬桶/天略有上調(diào)。但如果美國再次陷入低迷，這種樂觀的前景將面臨風(fēng)險。

”Rystad Energy的石油市場分析師Louise Dickson在一份聲明中表示：“如果原油庫存現(xiàn)在繼續(xù)增加，而限制措施放松，交易員們擔(dān)心，如果再次出現(xiàn)嚴重的封鎖態(tài)勢，需求將會如何，畢竟，石油庫存已經(jīng)處于相當高的水平?！?/span>

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Oil Market Recovery Threatened By Weaker Fuel Demand

Gasoline demand appears to be weakening in some parts of the United States, as the coronavirus continues to spread. The states hardest hit by the surging number of infections are also some of the largest, with tens of millions of drivers. Much of the country continues to see a slight uptick in gasoline consumption.

Gasoline demand in the U.S. climbed back to 8.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the week ending on June 19, up from a low of 5 mb/d in early April. But demand slipped a bit by the end of June as the virus began to spread at a faster clip. On Wednesday, the EIA reported another increase in demand, although the report was offset by a rise in crude inventories, and the slightly muddying caveat that it was a holiday weekend. Gasoline demand is still roughly 1 mb/d below last year’s levels.

In other parts of the world, economies continue to rebound. Germany’s industrial activity picked up pace in June. Strict lockdowns in prior months helped dramatically lower the number of daily infections, and some economies have largely reopened.

But many parts of the U.S. have tried to return to “normal” without ever really getting the virus under control. JBC Energy wrote in a note on Tuesday.

The virus also continues to spread in India and Brazil, among other parts of the world. “With global active cases globally slightly less than 4.5 million and showing no sign of a slowdown, we are increasingly seeing downside risk to our total product (particularly gasoline) demand forecast,” JBC added.

A day earlier, the energy firm cut its forecast for U.S. gasoline demand, calling the recovery “increasingly questionable.” Draconian lockdowns were unlikely, as there is almost no political appetite for strict stay-at-home orders, but nevertheless, the spread of the virus will take a toll as governments implement some restrictions and people voluntarily stay home. “[W]e expect demand declines to strengthen moderately through July,” with demand down by 350,000 bpd relative to a prior base case, JBC said.

Others saw a similar negative turn. Standard Chartered said that current crude oil prices “contain a lot of optimism.”

To be sure, the sharp decline in oil production has tightened up the market. Instead of supply and demand balancing at 100 mb/d, the market is now “balanced” at a level that is 10 percent smaller. In fact, demand could average around 89 mb/d in July, with supply at only 88 mb/d. The oil market has now reached a new “balance at the bottom,” according to Rystad Energy.

But even if the oil market is technically in a deficit, there is still a massive inventory overhang and the threat of another downturn because of the virus. “[W]e think normalisation is going take a long time, and the current drift down in demand data and a renewed drift down in demand forecasts will make that process even longer,” Standard Chartered analysts wrote in a note.

The inventory overhang would last until 2022, the bank added, but that really hinges on OPEC+ sticking with the production cuts until then.

The EIA put out its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, in which it revised up its estimate for gasoline demand. It now sees 2020 gasoline consumption declining by 2.1 mb/d relative to 2019 levels, a slight improvement from June’s estimate of demand being down 2.3 mb/d.

But that sunnier outlook is at risk if the U.S. suffers another downturn.

“If crude stocks are growing now, while restrictions are loose, traders worry about what will happen to demand in the case serious lockdowns come back again. Stocks are already at quite high levels,” Louise Dickson, oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a statement.