世界能源需求2040年后仍將依賴石油和天然氣

據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)2020年7月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)《巴黎協(xié)定》要求到2040年前把全球氣溫上升控制在2攝氏度以內(nèi)的目標(biāo)，各國(guó)政府已經(jīng)開(kāi)始向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型。在這一轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中，人們對(duì)上游石油行業(yè)的前景越來(lái)越擔(dān)憂和懷疑。一些業(yè)內(nèi)專家認(rèn)為，對(duì)化石燃料的需求將會(huì)減弱，從而導(dǎo)致一些資產(chǎn)陷入困境。

但全球領(lǐng)先的綜合能源數(shù)據(jù)提供商之一的伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie/WM）的分析師認(rèn)為，石油需求在2040年前將不會(huì)大幅放緩。事實(shí)上，W M負(fù)責(zé)全球勘探的副總裁安德魯萊瑟姆和高級(jí)研究分析師亞當(dāng) 威爾遜在他們的題為《在低成本、低碳世界的勘探未來(lái)》最新報(bào)告中指出，2040年以后，世界的大部分能源需求仍將依賴石油和天然氣。因此，他們認(rèn)為，繼續(xù)勘探對(duì)于滿足全球未來(lái)的能源需求至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)樗麄兊难芯勘砻鳎?040年，只有大約一半的石油供應(yīng)來(lái)自已投產(chǎn)油田。

萊瑟姆和威爾遜在報(bào)告中進(jìn)一步指出，世界可能需要超過(guò)1000億桶油當(dāng)量的資源——石油和天然氣的比例大約是50:50。他們表示，這意味著油氣行業(yè)需要把過(guò)去5年的勘探成功率至少維持到2030年。

此外，分析師表示，“即使全球氣溫上升控制在2攝氏度的情況下，未來(lái)20年全球?qū)κ秃吞烊粴獾睦塾?jì)需求也將至少達(dá)到1.1萬(wàn)億桶油當(dāng)量。”“根據(jù)我們對(duì)基本情況的預(yù)測(cè)，這一數(shù)字很有可能高達(dá)1.4萬(wàn)億桶油當(dāng)量。大約6400億桶油當(dāng)量能夠由來(lái)自陸上油田已探明和已開(kāi)發(fā)油田滿足。這將有大約4600億至7600億油當(dāng)量的“供應(yīng)缺口”。

WM的分析師指出，所有這些供應(yīng)缺口——實(shí)際上還會(huì)更多——都可以從現(xiàn)有的發(fā)現(xiàn)中得到滿足。但是，他們強(qiáng)調(diào)這些需要投資，同時(shí)指出只有成本最低和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益最好的資源才有優(yōu)勢(shì)，才會(huì)吸引資本。

然而，他們也熱切地指出，許多已探明資源并不符合要求，因此，繼續(xù)尋求新的石油和天然氣儲(chǔ)量將能夠在這個(gè)激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中保持自己的存在。

這對(duì)南美洲國(guó)家圭亞那來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好兆頭，埃克森美孚公司在相對(duì)較低盈虧平衡的斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊中發(fā)現(xiàn)了數(shù)十億桶的石油資源。由于在斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊及其周圍區(qū)塊仍有幾個(gè)目標(biāo)，圭亞那的油氣勘探潛力仍然很大。

國(guó)際能源署（IEA）說(shuō)，由于全球石油產(chǎn)量將恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)，圭亞那、巴西和挪威的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)至關(guān)重要

?？松梨诠绢A(yù)計(jì)，到2026年前，其在斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊的石油日產(chǎn)量將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)75萬(wàn)桶，而WM曾表示，這一數(shù)字在本10年結(jié)束前很可能會(huì)超過(guò)100萬(wàn)桶。

不夠快

WM市場(chǎng)和轉(zhuǎn)型主管普拉卡什·沙爾瑪在一份單獨(dú)分析報(bào)告中指出，把全球氣溫上升幅度控制在2攝氏度以內(nèi)的努力甚至沒(méi)有以同樣快的速度進(jìn)行，這使得WM的有關(guān)化石燃料存在的時(shí)間將比一些利益相關(guān)者所預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)間要長(zhǎng)得多的結(jié)論更加可信。

沙爾瑪認(rèn)為，這種轉(zhuǎn)變沒(méi)有如預(yù)期那樣迅速的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵原因是，可再生能源還沒(méi)有給投資者帶來(lái)令人信服的理由。目前，可再生能源回報(bào)方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)太大了。

事實(shí)上，WM的分析師預(yù)測(cè)，到2040年前風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能在電力供應(yīng)中所占比例僅為24%，而2019年這一比例為7%。盡管這一數(shù)字可能表明競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力正在提高，但他熱切地指出，太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能在燃料組合中所占的份額要達(dá)到50%或更高的份額仍存在實(shí)際限制。

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

World will still rely on oil and gas for much of its energy needs beyond 2040 – WoodMac Analysts

In keeping with the goal of the Paris Agreement which calls for a limit to the increase in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2040, countries have begun the transition to renewable forms of energy. In the midst of this transition, there have been growing concerns and doubts about what would become of upstream petroleum. Some industry experts have posited that demand for fossil fuels would weaken leaving some assets stranded.

But analysts at Wood Mackenzie, one of the world’s leading providers in comprehensive energy data, do not believe that the demand for oil will slow significantly before 2040. In fact, Andrew Latham, Wood Mac’s Vice President for Global Exploration and Adam Wilson, a Senior Research Analyst, noted in their latest report, “Exploration’s future in a low-cost, low-carbon world”, that the world will still rely on oil and gas for much of its energy needs well beyond 2040. As a result of this, they posited that continued exploration will be critical in meeting this future demand since their research shows that only about half the supply needed to 2040 is guaranteed from fields already on stream.

Expounding further, Latham and Wilson noted that the world may need over 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources (boe) – split roughly 50:50 between oil and gas. They said that this means the industry needs to maintain its success rate of the past five years until at least 2030.

Further to this, the analysts said, “Cumulative global demand for oil and gas over the next two decades will be at least 1,100 billion boe even in a 2°C scenario. It could be as much as 1,400 billion boe on our base case forecasts. Around 640 billion boe can be met by proven developed supply from onstream fields. This leaves a ‘supply gap’ of some 460 billion to 760 billion boe.”

The Wood Mac Analysts noted that all of this supply gap– indeed much more – could be met from existing discoveries. They stressed however that these need investment while noting that only resources with the lowest cost and best economics are advantaged and should attract capital.

They were keen to note as well that much of the known resource, however, does not fit the bill hence the continued quest for oil and gas will be able to hold its own in this competition.

This bodes well for the South American country of Guyana where multi-billion-barrel oil resources have been found by ExxonMobil at the Stabroek Block in fields with relatively low breakevens. The exploration potential also remains strong with several targets remaining at Stabroek as well as the surrounding blocks.

Solid gains from Guyana, Brazil and Norway key as global oil output set to limp back to life – IEA

ExxonMobil anticipates that by 2026 it will be producing well over 750,000 barrels of oil per day at Stabroek and WoodMac has said this is likely to exceed the 1-million-barrel-per-day mark by the end of the decade.

NOT FAST ENOUGH

In a separate analysis that was done by Prakash Sharma, Head of Markets and Transitions at WoodMac, it was noted that the efforts to limit the increase of global temperature by below two degrees Celsius is not even happening as fast as it should, which lends more credence to the entity’s conclusion that fossil fuel will be around for much longer than some stakeholders project.

Sharma contended that one of the key reasons the transition is not happening as fast as it should is simply because renewable energy is yet to make a compelling case to investors. The risks regarding returns are just too great at the moment.

In fact, the WoodMac Analyst foresees wind and solar energy contributing a mere 24% of power supply by 2040 compared with 7% in 2019. Although the figure might suggest that competitiveness is improving, he was keen to note that there are practical limitations to reaching a fuel mix of 50% or greater share for solar and wind.