EIA上調(diào)布倫特原油價格預(yù)測

據(jù)今日油價網(wǎng)站7月7日消息 美國能源信息署（EIA）將2020年下半年布倫特原油價格預(yù)期上調(diào)至每桶41美元，比EIA上月的預(yù)測高出4美元。

在其短期能源展望中，預(yù)計(jì)全球石油庫存將在下半年和明年全年繼續(xù)下降。

EIA在月報摘要中稱：“EIA預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個月高庫存水平和剩余原油產(chǎn)能將限制價格上漲壓力，但隨著庫存下降到2021年，這些價格上漲壓力將增加?！?/span>

EIA預(yù)測全球液體燃料庫存在2020年上半年將以670萬桶/日的速度增長，然后在2020年下半年以330萬桶/日的速度下降。最后，在2021年，EIA預(yù)計(jì)庫存將進(jìn)一步下降110萬桶/日。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，今明兩年美國石油產(chǎn)量將下降，WTI價格將在明年保持在每桶50美元以下。EIA的預(yù)期是，美國今年的石油平均日產(chǎn)量將為1160萬桶，明年將為1100萬桶/日，與去年平均1220萬桶/日相比有所下降。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，從2019年起，美國液體燃料消耗量將平均下降210萬桶/日，至1830萬桶/日。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

EIA Raises Brent Crude Oil Price Outlook

The Energy Information Administration raised its price outlook for Brent crude to $41 per barrel for the second half of 2020—this is $4 per barrel higher than the EIA’s forecast last month.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook expectation that global oil inventories will continue to decline in the second half of the year and throughout next year.

“EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase,” the EIA said in a summary of its monthly report.

Specifically, the EIA is forecasting that global liquid fuel inventories will rise at a rate of 6.7 million bpd in H1 2020, and then decline at a rate of 3.3 million bpd in H2 2020. Finally, in 2021, the EIA expects that inventories will decline further by 1.1 million bpd.

The EIA expects U.S. oil production to fall this year and next, with WTI prices sitting below $50 per barrel through next year. The EIA’s expectation is that oil production in the United States will average 11.6 million barrels per day this year, and 11.0 million bpd next year. This is off from an average of 12.2 million bpd last year. The EIA expects U.S. liquid fuels consumption to fall this year by an average of 2.1 million bpd from 2019, to 18.3 million bpd.