受東北亞套利影響 美國上周原油出口大幅下降

據(jù)原油新聞2020年7月8日休斯頓報道，美國能源信息署(EIA) 8日公布的石油數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于對東北亞的套利激勵效果減弱，美國上周原油出口降至去年11月份以來的最低水平。

在7月3日結(jié)束的一周里，美國原油平均日出口量僅為239萬桶，為去年11月初237萬桶以來的最低水平。美國上周原油日出口量比前一周大幅下降了70多萬桶。

把美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油（WTI）引入亞洲的套利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)一直難以奏效。例如，根據(jù)分析公司的原油Arbflow數(shù)據(jù)，今年6月份，美國WTI MEH原油在日本的交付價格比俄羅斯ESPO原油交付價格低14美分/桶。就在今年4月份，經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢對WTI MEH的支持超過7美元/桶。事實(shí)上，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，WTI MEH原油在本周初的交割價略高于ESPO原油。

另外，達(dá)科他接入管道(DAPL)的關(guān)閉將減少美國墨西哥灣沿岸的低硫原油產(chǎn)量，從而導(dǎo)致低硫原油價值走高，比如WTI MEH。實(shí)際上，自7月6日裁決以來，WTI MEH原油價差每桶上漲了20美分，而路易斯安那輕質(zhì)低硫原油價差每桶上漲了70美分。

李峻 編譯自 原油新聞

原文如下：

US crude exports drop amid pressured Northeast Asia arbitrage

US weekly crude exports fell to their lowest level November last week, according to US Energy Information Administration oil data July 8, as arbitrage incentives to Northeast Asia have eroded.

The US exported just 2.39 million b/d of crude for the week ended July 3, their lowest since the 2.37 million b/d seen in early November. Exports last week were down more than 700,000 b/d from the week prior.

Arbitrage economics for WTI into Asia have been difficult to work. For example, WTI MEH delivered into Japan at a scant 14 cent/b discount to Russian ESPO in Japan over June, according to Analytics crude Arbflow data. As recently as April, economics favored WTI MEH by over $7/b. In fact, the data shows WTI MEH delivering at a small premium to ESPO at the start of this week.

Additionally, the closure of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which has been ordered by a US Judge to be shut by Aug 5, would lower the volumes of light sweet crude available on the USGC, thus leading to higher values for sweet grades, like WTI MEH. Indeed, since the July 6 ruling, differentials for WTI MEH have risen by 20 cents/b while differentials for Light Louisiana Sweet crude have gained 70 cents/b.