美國(guó)液化天然氣出口將降至25％

據(jù)7月8日Offshore Energy消息：受全球市場(chǎng)疲軟影響，EIA預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)7、8月份液化天然氣出口將大幅下降。

該機(jī)構(gòu)在其最新的短期能源展望中表示，美國(guó)6月LNG平均出口量為36億立方英尺/天，預(yù)計(jì)7、8月平均出口量?jī)H為22億立方英尺/天。

該機(jī)構(gòu)稱，7月和8月的預(yù)測(cè)意味著美國(guó)液化天然氣出口能力的利用率僅為25%。

隨著全球天然氣需求逐漸復(fù)蘇，美國(guó)LNG出口將從9月開始增長(zhǎng)，2020年12月到2021年2月平均增長(zhǎng)為71億立方英尺/天。

今年液化能力將繼續(xù)上升，位于得克薩斯州的第三列自由港液化天然氣列車5月開始商業(yè)化運(yùn)營(yíng)。今年夏天晚些時(shí)候，路易斯安那州的卡梅倫液化天然氣第三列車和喬治亞州的三個(gè)小型液化裝置將投入使用。

EIA稱，這將使美國(guó)液化天然氣出口能力達(dá)到基本負(fù)荷89億立方英尺/天，峰值101億立方英尺/天。

2020年前四個(gè)月，美國(guó)液化天然氣日均出口量為77億立方英尺，但在4月至5月之間下降17％。

暖冬和疫情措施導(dǎo)致全球天然氣需求下降，歐洲和亞洲天然氣庫(kù)存偏高，減少了對(duì)液化天然氣進(jìn)口的需求。歐洲和亞洲歷史上較低的液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格降低了對(duì)價(jià)格高度敏感的美國(guó)出口的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性。

根據(jù)EIA數(shù)據(jù)，2020年夏季，買家取消了美國(guó)6月和7月交付的逾70批貨物。另外還取消了8月40多批貨物。

相比之下，美國(guó)在2020年1月出口74批貨物。

EIA稱，亨利·哈伯6月現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為1.63美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，較5月下降12美分/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的月度均價(jià)至少為1989年以來(lái)最低。目前，天然氣需求減少的影響超過(guò)了美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量下降的影響，正導(dǎo)致天然氣價(jià)格走低。

未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，這些條件將在很大程度上持續(xù)，第三季度平均價(jià)格將維持在1.65美元/百萬(wàn)英熱。

然而，隨著天然氣需求增加和產(chǎn)量的持續(xù)下降，特別是在第四季度空間供暖需求上升時(shí)，總體價(jià)格上行壓力將在2020年晚些時(shí)候出現(xiàn)。2020年第四季度亨利·哈伯油田的平均現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將為2.46美元/百萬(wàn)英熱，使2020年的年平均價(jià)格達(dá)到1.93美元/百萬(wàn)英熱。

EIA補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，由于天然氣產(chǎn)量下降繼續(xù)給價(jià)格帶來(lái)上行壓力，預(yù)計(jì)2021年亨利·哈伯平均價(jià)格將達(dá)到3.10美元/百萬(wàn)英熱。

馮娟 摘譯自 Offshore Energy

原文如下：

EIA: US LNG exports to dip to just 25 pct capacity

US LNG exports are expected to nosedive in July and August due to a weak global market hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the EIA.

The agency said in its newest short-term energy outlook that US LNG exports averaged 3.6 Bcf/d in June and expects that they will average 2.2 Bcf/d in July and August this year.

The July and August forecasts imply a 25 percent utilization of US LNG export capacity, it said.

Hovewher, EIA expects US LNG exports to increase beginning in September and average 7.1 Bcf/d from December 2020 to February 2021 as global natural gas demand gradually recovers.

As per liquefaction capacity, it continued to rise this year, and in May the third Freeport LNG train in Texas started commercial operations.

Later this summer, the Cameron LNG third train in Louisiana and three of Elba Island’s small-scale liquefaction units in Georgia will come online.

This will bring total US liquefaction export capacity to 8.9 Bcf/d of baseload and 10.1 Bcf/d peak, EIA said.

U.S. LNG exports averaged 7.7 Bcf/d through the first four months of 2020, but declined by 17 percent between April and May.

A mild winter and Covid-19 mitigation efforts have led to declining global natural gas demand and high natural gas inventories in Europe and Asia, reducing the need for LNG imports, EIA said.

The agency said that historically low natural gas and LNG spot prices in Europe and Asia have reduced the economic viability of US exports, which are highly price sensitive.

According to EIA, in the summer 2020, buyers cancelled more than 70 US LNG cargoes for June and July deliveries.

Additionally, they cancelled more than 40 cargoes for August deliveries.

In comparison, the US exported 74 LNG cargoes in January 2020.

EIA said Henry Hub spot prices averaged $1.63 per million British thermal units in June, down 12 cents/MMBtu from May and the lowest inflation adjusted monthly average price since at least 1989.

Currently, the effects of reduced natural gas demand are outweighing the effects of falling US natural gas production and are contributing to low natural gas prices.

EIA expects that these conditions will largely persist in the coming months, keeping the third quarter average price at $1.65/MMBtu.

However, EIA expects general upward price pressures to emerge later in 2020 as demand for natural gas increases and production continues to decline, particularly in the fourth quarter when space heating demand rises.

EIA forecasts that the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.46/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2020, bringing the 2020 annual average to $1.93/MMBtu.

EIA added that it expects Henry Hub to average $3.10/MMBtu in 2021 as falling natural gas production levels continue to exert upward price pressures.