全球化肥價格將在未來六個月保持低位

據ICIS網站7月6日消息 荷蘭投資銀行荷蘭合作銀行（Rabobank）稱，由于原材料成本驟降、產能不斷增長以及需求平平，化肥價格預計在未來6個月內仍將保持低位。

在該行6月份發(fā)布的半年期全球化肥展望中，分析師表示，能源價格下降，將對未來幾個月的行業(yè)產生較大影響。

用于生產尿素和磷酸鹽的天然氣和煤炭等主要原料降低了投入成本，但農民利潤也受到擠壓。

荷蘭合作銀行高級分析師馬修斯?阿爾梅達表示：“我們預計，未來六個月，整個化肥的價格幾乎沒有上漲空間。由于投入相對便宜，利用率保持在較低水平，而且我們對大宗商品價格的預期也將維持在較低水平，預計這種低價格環(huán)境至少將持續(xù)6個月?！?/span>

未來幾個月氮肥的主要問題是全球對中國尿素的需求。

對于磷酸鹽，荷蘭合作銀行預計，各地區(qū)情況喜憂參半，如果出現(xiàn)第二波病毒，那么當地停產和航運限制，磷酸鹽在世界某些地區(qū)的供應可能會減少。

生產成本將繼續(xù)保持在較低水平。

由于季節(jié)性需求的變化，鉀肥的短期前景也因地區(qū)而異。

南美的大豆價格可能有利，而馬來西亞和印度尼西亞的棕櫚油價格較低可能會壓低鉀肥需求。

王磊 摘譯自 ICIS

原文如下：

Fertilizer prices to remain low over next six months – bank

Fertilizers prices are expected to remain low over the next six months owing to the plummeting cost of raw materials, growing production capacity, and mediocre demand, according to Dutch investment bank Rabobank.

In the bank's Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook, published in June, analysts said the decreasing energy prices on the back of the coronavirus pandemic would have the biggest impact on the industry in coming months.

Major feeds, such as natural gas and coal, used for the production of urea and phosphate, has lowered input costs, but farmer margins have also been squeezed.

"We expect that there is little upside for prices over the next six months across the nutrient complex. With relatively cheap inputs, utilisation remaining at low levels, and our outlook for commodity prices also staying low, we expect this low price environment will continue for at least the next six months," said Matheus Almeida, senior analyst at Rabobank.

The major question for nitrogen in the months ahead is global demand of Chinese urea.

India, a major importer of Chinese tonnes, is increasingly looking to becoming self-sufficient, resulting it being less dependent on Chinese imports.

For phosphates, Rabobank expects a mixed picture regionally, with their being a potential for less availability in some parts of the world owing to local shutdowns and shipping restrictions if there is a second wave of coronavirus.

Production costs will continue to remain low.

The short term outlook for potash also varies from region to region because of shifts in seasonal demand.

Soybean prices in South America may prove favourable, while low palm oil prices in Malaysia and Indonesia could push down potash demand.