全球LNG項(xiàng)目因?qū)夂虻膿?dān)憂和疫情而延遲

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)7月7日倫敦報(bào)道， 據(jù)周二公布的一份報(bào)告顯示，近一半的全球液化天然氣出口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的前景在近幾個月里出現(xiàn)了下滑，因?yàn)槿藗儗夂蜃兓?、公眾抗議以及冠狀病毒大流行造成的延誤的擔(dān)憂日益加劇。

全球能源監(jiān)測機(jī)構(gòu)的研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，在全球45個在建前開發(fā)的大型液化天然氣出口項(xiàng)目中，至少有20個項(xiàng)目(資本支出約2920億美元)目前面臨融資延遲。

這標(biāo)志著投資者對許多人曾認(rèn)為前途光明的燃料市場的態(tài)度發(fā)生了明顯轉(zhuǎn)變。由于需求增長放緩、來自可再生能源技術(shù)的競爭加劇，以及該行業(yè)排放導(dǎo)致氣候變暖的問題遭到反對，這個市場已經(jīng)受到打擊。

歐洲投資銀行(European Investment Bank)副行長表示，該報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)了投資液化天然氣資產(chǎn)的不可接受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Andrew McDowell在一封電子郵件中對路透表示，投資液化天然氣(LNG)終端等新的化石燃料基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度看越來越不明智。

該行在去年11月宣布，將在2021年底停止為化石燃料項(xiàng)目提供融資。

液化天然氣行業(yè)對更為樂觀的前景押下了重注，因?yàn)樵S多分析師預(yù)測，未來10年的某個時(shí)候，需求將超過供應(yīng)。

總部位于舊金山的非營利研究機(jī)構(gòu)的研究人員表示，2019年，世界各地的企業(yè)承諾在新建液化天然氣出口終端上投入1600億至1700億美元，幾乎是2018年承諾的650億美元的三倍。

各公司已經(jīng)宣布了總計(jì)7580億美元的項(xiàng)目建設(shè)計(jì)劃，這些項(xiàng)目目前仍處于前期建設(shè)階段。但研究人員告訴路透社，由于目前有20個項(xiàng)目處于危險(xiǎn)之中，其中包括美國的9個項(xiàng)目，如果拖延無限期地持續(xù)下去，該計(jì)劃的資本支出可能會減少2920億美元，即38%。

瑞典養(yǎng)老金機(jī)構(gòu)基金部門主管Erik Fransson表示，液化天然氣基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施面臨著成為擱淺資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，應(yīng)該予以避免。該機(jī)構(gòu)管理著120億美元的資產(chǎn)。、

與此同時(shí)，權(quán)威者表示，自疫情爆發(fā)以來，液化天然氣終端的開發(fā)速度已經(jīng)推遲了至少18個月。

《全球能源監(jiān)測》執(zhí)行董事特德·納斯（Ted Nace）對路透表示：“就進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)新項(xiàng)目而言，該行業(yè)目前確實(shí)處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài)。”

液化天然氣投資在許多國家都得到了政府的大力支持。美國、歐洲和其他地方的石油公司仍計(jì)劃在未來10年增加液化天然氣出口。

這引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂，即由此產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳和甲烷的排放，可能會加大實(shí)現(xiàn)2015年巴黎氣候協(xié)議中設(shè)定的溫度目標(biāo)的難度。

盡管燃燒天然氣產(chǎn)生的每單位能源比煤炭排放的使地球變暖的二氧化碳要少，但氣候科學(xué)家警告說，該行業(yè)的快速增長以及甲烷(一種強(qiáng)有力的溫室氣體)的泄漏，威脅著限制氣候變化的進(jìn)展。

至于未來的項(xiàng)目，路透調(diào)查顯示，12家公司今年初表示，計(jì)劃在2020年做出最終投資決定，在北美建設(shè)新的液化天然氣出口工廠。現(xiàn)在，這一總數(shù)已降至4個，分析師預(yù)計(jì)今年只有一個項(xiàng)目會繼續(xù)推進(jìn)。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global LNG projects jeopardized by climate concerns, pandemic delays: report

Prospects for nearly half of the world's projects to build infrastructure for exporting liquefied natural gas have faltered in recent months, amid rising concerns about climate change, public protests and delays due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report published Tuesday.

Out of 45 major LNG export projects in pre-construction development globally, at least 20 - representing a capital outlay of some $292 billion - are now facing delays to their financing, researchers at Global Energy Monitor found.

That marks a stark shift by investors away from what many had considered a promising fuel market, already buffeted by slower growth in demand, rising competition from renewable energy technologies and opposition over the industry's climate-warming emissions.

The vice president of the European Investment Bank said the report underlined the unacceptable risk of investing in LNG assets.

"Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure like liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals is increasingly an economically unsound decision," Andrew McDowell told Reuters in an email.

The bank had announced in November that it would stop financing fossil fuel projects at the end of 2021.

The LNG industry has made big bets on a more positive outlook, as many analysts have predicted that demand would outstrip supply sometime in the next decade.

Companies committed $160 billion to $170 billion to new LNG export terminal construction around the world in 2019, almost triple the roughly $65 billion committed in 2018, said researchers at the San Francisco-based non-profit research group.

In total, companies had announced plans to build $758 billion of projects that are as yet in the pre-construction phase. But with 20 projects now in jeopardy, including nine in the United States, that planned capital outlay could be reduced by $292 billion, or 38 per cent, if the delays persist indefinitely, the researchers told Reuters.

"LNG infrastructure faces the risk of becoming stranded assets and should be avoided," said Erik Fransson, head of the fund department at the Swedish Pensions Agency, which has $12 billion of assets under management.

Meanwhile, the pace of LNG terminal development has been pushed back by at least 18 months since the pandemic, the authors said.

"The sector is really shut down at the moment in terms of advancing further new projects," report co-author Ted Nace, executive director of Global Energy Monitor, told Reuters.

LNG investment has had strong government support in many countries. And oil companies in the United States, Europe and elsewhere still plan to boost LNG exports over the next decade.

That has raised worries that resulting emissions of carbon dioxide and methane could make it harder to achieve the temperature goals in the 2015 Paris climate accord.

Though burning natural gas emits less planet-warming carbon dioxide than coal per unit of energy produced, climate scientists have warned that the industry's rapid growth as well as leaks of methane - a potent greenhouse gas - threaten progress in limiting climate change.

As for future projects, 12 companies had said at the start of this year that they planned to make final investment decisions in 2020 to build new LNG export plants in North America, according to a Reuters survey. That total is now down to four, and analysts only expect one project to move forward this year.