第二波疫情將日減全球石油需求250萬桶

據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2020年7月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）預(yù)測(cè)，在第二波疫情的影響下，今年全球的石油日需求量可能會(huì)減少250萬桶。

Restad指出，在包括美國(guó)在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)國(guó)家里，第二波疫情已經(jīng)“越來越明顯”。Rystad對(duì)更廣泛的第二波疫情對(duì)全球石油需求的影響進(jìn)行了建模，結(jié)果顯示，全球石油日需求量可能從目前基本情況估計(jì)的8900萬桶跌至8650萬桶。

盡管Rystad預(yù)計(jì)第二波Covid-19對(duì)全球石油需求的影響不會(huì)像第一波那樣強(qiáng)烈，因?yàn)橄拗菩源胧﹥H限于特定地區(qū)和行業(yè)，但Rystad仍警告說，高峰月份的需求影響可能會(huì)在第二波疫情中達(dá)到1800萬桶/天。Rystad強(qiáng)調(diào)，第一波Covid-19疫情造成的需求負(fù)增長(zhǎng)最嚴(yán)重的月份是4月份，當(dāng)月的需求增長(zhǎng)為-2600萬桶/天。

Rystad表示，如果第二波疫情影響需求成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，明年全球石油需求的復(fù)蘇將會(huì)慢得多。根據(jù)Rystad目前的基本方案，Rystad預(yù)計(jì)全球每月石油需求量將日減400萬至500萬桶，并適時(shí)將新冠病毒疫情大流行對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響的時(shí)間進(jìn)一步拖長(zhǎng)。

Rystad指出，無論需求出現(xiàn)何種程度的意外下滑，都將“導(dǎo)致油價(jià)暴跌”。Rystad補(bǔ)充稱，如果世界出現(xiàn)第二波疫情大流行，市場(chǎng)的儲(chǔ)存“頭疼問題”將嚴(yán)重惡化。

Rystad在發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份公司聲明中稱：“在最近幾個(gè)月的大量原油庫存被抵消之前，油價(jià)不可能大幅上漲。”

Rystad補(bǔ)充說，這意味著只要供應(yīng)和需求在相反的軌道上運(yùn)行，即供應(yīng)上升和需求下降，油價(jià)就將繼續(xù)存在相當(dāng)大的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。疫情的第二波傳播將延長(zhǎng)這些產(chǎn)品儲(chǔ)存的時(shí)間，并向煉油廠發(fā)出撤退的信號(hào)。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

The Effects of a 2nd Covid Wave on Oil

Oil demand in 2020 could lose an additional 2.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in a second Covid-19 wave scenario, according to Rystad Energy.

The company outlined that a second wave of the pandemic is already “increasingly apparent” in several countries, including the United States. Modelling the effect of an even wider second wave, Rystad revealed that demand could tumble to 86.5MMbpd from its current base case estimate of 89MMbpd.

Although Rystad outlined that it doesn’t expect the oil demand impact of a second wave to be as strong as the first outbreak as it sees restrictive measures being limited to particular regions and sectors, it still warned of a peak month demand impact of -18MMbpd in a second wave. The most severe month for negative demand impact as a result of the first wave was -26MMbpd back in April, Rystad highlighted.

If the second wave materializes, global oil demand will recover much slower in 2021, according to the company. It will land between 4MMbpd and 5MMbpd lower per month than it would under Rystad’s current base case and drag the pandemic’s market effect further in time, the company predicted.

An unexpected dip of any magnitude in demand will “send the oil price into a tailspin” Rystad noted, adding that the market’s storage “headache” will greatly worsen if there is a second wave.

“A significant oil price boost cannot occur until the massive crude stock builds of recent months are neutralized,” Rystad said in a company statement which was sent to Rigzone.

“This means that oil prices will continue to carry considerable downside risk as long as the supply and demand dynamics are moving in opposing trajectories – with supply up and demand down. A second wave of the virus would prolong the timeline these products sit in storage, and signal to refineries to pull back,” Rystad added.