到2050年全球能源需求將下滑

據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威能源咨詢公司DNV GL在一份新報(bào)告中表示，全球能源需求很可能在2019年已經(jīng)見頂，二氧化碳排放量也可能達(dá)到了峰值。

該咨詢公司稱，未來30年，世界能源需求實(shí)際上將下降，到2050年，需求將處于2018年的水平。報(bào)告的作者Sverre Alvik和Mark Irvine寫道，造成這種情況的原因可能是冠狀病毒大流行的持久影響和能源強(qiáng)度的顯著改善。

顧問們表示:“疫情的持續(xù)影響將使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)在許多年內(nèi)失去動(dòng)力，與疫情爆發(fā)前相比，2050年世界GDP將下降9%。然而，即使增長放緩，到本世紀(jì)中葉，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模仍將是今天的兩倍。不過，能源需求將不會(huì)增長。”

總的來說，這些趨勢對(duì)石油的影響將是負(fù)面的，未來十年，天然氣將取代石油成為使用最多的能源。此外，由于可再生能源的低運(yùn)營成本和快速周轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)間，投資者可能會(huì)開始更加關(guān)注可再生能源。DNV GL表示，可再生能源方面的支出將比石油和天然氣方面的支出恢復(fù)得更快。

好消息是，碳排放量在2019年可能已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值。壞消息是，排放量的進(jìn)一步下降將不足以達(dá)到《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)。

Alvik和Irvine寫道:“即使排放峰值已經(jīng)過去，能源需求也會(huì)在2050年前保持平穩(wěn)，但我們預(yù)測的能源轉(zhuǎn)型速度仍遠(yuǎn)不足以實(shí)現(xiàn)巴黎的目標(biāo)，即將全球變暖幅度遠(yuǎn)低于工業(yè)革命前水平的2攝氏度。要達(dá)到1.5攝氏度的目標(biāo)，從現(xiàn)在開始，我們需要每年重復(fù)在2020年經(jīng)歷的下降。”

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND TO DECLINE THROUGH 2050

Global energy demand may well have peaked last year, and the same may be true for carbon dioxide emissions, Norwegian energy consultancy DNV GL said in a new report.

According to the consultancy, over the next three decades, the world’s energy demand will actually decline, and in 2050 demand will be on a level with what it was in 2018. The reasons for this would be the lasting effect of the coronavirus pandemic and significant improvements in energy intensity, the report’s authors, Sverre Alvik and Mark Irvine, wrote.

“The lingering effects of the pandemic will take the wind out of the sails of the world economy for many years – reducing World GDP in 2050 by 9%, relative to pre-pandemic forecasts,” the consultants said. “Even with slower growth, however, by mid-century the world economy will still be twice its size today. In contrast, energy demand will not grow.”

The effects of these trends on oil will be negative as a whole, with natural gas taking over from it as the most used energy source in the next decade. What’s more, investors may start paying even more attention to renewables, thanks to their low operating costs and fast turnaround times. As a result, DNV GL said, spending on renewables will recover more quickly than spending on oil and gas.

As regards emissions, the good news is that they probably peaked last year. The bad news is that further declines in emissions will not be large enough to be in line with the Paris Agreement goals.

“Even with peak emissions behind us, and flat energy demand through to 2050, the energy transition we forecast is still nowhere near fast enough to deliver the Paris ambition of keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,” Alvik and Irvine wrote. “To reach 1.5-degree target, we would need to repeat the decline we’re experiencing in 2020 every year from now on.”