高盛預(yù)計石油需求將到2022年恢復(fù)到疫情前水平

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)7月2日報道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)周四表示，通勤人數(shù)的增加、向私人交通的轉(zhuǎn)變，以及政府通過加大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出來改善經(jīng)濟(jì)的努力，應(yīng)有助于全球石油需求到2022年恢復(fù)到疫情之前的水平。

據(jù)美國銀行在一份報告中表示，預(yù)計今年需求將下降8%，2021年反彈6%，到2022年完全恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。

高盛表示，石油需求已經(jīng)開始復(fù)蘇，復(fù)蘇的最初步伐令中國和印度等經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長感到意外。需求仍低于正常水平，6月份的需求估計比去年同期水平低12%。

該銀行預(yù)計，汽油在石油產(chǎn)品中的需求恢復(fù)速度最快，而受疫情影響最大的航空燃料消耗可能會受到更大的影響，因為在沒有疫苗的情況下，消費者對航空旅行的信心可能會保持在較低水平。

根據(jù)上周的行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，雖然隨著封鎖措施的放松，燃料需求正在逐步復(fù)蘇，但第二波冠狀疫情可能會迅速破壞這一趨勢。

路透社周二公布的一項調(diào)查估計，油價今年將穩(wěn)固在每桶40美元左右，因歐佩克主導(dǎo)減產(chǎn)，且經(jīng)濟(jì)從封鎖后緩慢復(fù)蘇，第四季及2021年油價復(fù)蘇勢頭將增強(qiáng)。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs sees oil demand returning to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday a pick-up in commuting, a shift to private transportation and government efforts to improve economies with higher infrastructure spending should help global oil demand return to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022.

Demand is expected to fall by 8 per cent this year, before rebounding 6 per cent in 2021 and fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, the US bank said in a note.

"Oil demand has already started to recover with the initial pace of recovery surprising to the upside in economies like China and India. Demand is still below normalised level with June demand estimated to be 12 per cent below last year levels," Goldman said.

The bank expects gasoline to stage the fastest demand recovery among oil products, while jet fuel consumption, which has been hit the most by the pandemic, could suffer more as consumer confidence in air travel is likely to stay low in the absence of a vaccine.

While fuel demand is gradually recovering as lockdown measures ease, a second coronavirus wave could quickly undermine the trend, industry data showed last week.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday estimated oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns.