伍德麥肯茲預(yù)計(jì)全球油氣行業(yè)將現(xiàn)更多大幅減損

據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，伍德麥肯茲上游研究團(tuán)隊(duì)主管安格斯?羅杰表示，該公司預(yù)計(jì)全球油氣行業(yè)還將出現(xiàn)更多的大幅減損。

在荷蘭皇家殼牌公司和英國(guó)石油公司宣布減損后，羅杰說，由于油價(jià)暴跌和疫情大流行，全球主要石油公司正在重新評(píng)估長(zhǎng)期油價(jià)假設(shè)和投資預(yù)期回報(bào)率。

羅杰在發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份聲明中說：“英國(guó)石油公司和殼牌公司只是全球最近宣布大幅減損的兩家公司?！?/span>

他補(bǔ)充說：“這一過程還將繼續(xù)，我們預(yù)計(jì)整個(gè)油氣行業(yè)還將出現(xiàn)更多的大幅減損?！?/span>

伍德麥肯茲負(fù)責(zé)企業(yè)分析的副總裁帕克說，殼牌公司宣布的減損不僅僅是會(huì)計(jì)技術(shù)問題，也不僅僅是對(duì)近期價(jià)格假設(shè)的調(diào)整。

帕克在伍德麥肯茲的一份公司聲明中稱，“這是關(guān)乎對(duì)整個(gè)油氣行業(yè)造成沖擊的根本性變革?！?/span>

他補(bǔ)充說：“殼牌公司通過這種減損向我們傳達(dá)了陷于困境資產(chǎn)的信息，就像英國(guó)石油公司幾周前所做的那樣。”

帕克繼續(xù)說，就在幾年前，油氣行業(yè)內(nèi)甚至沒有幾個(gè)人支持氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、峰值需求、陷入困境資產(chǎn)、清算業(yè)務(wù)模式等想法。如今，油氣公司都在圍繞這些理念制定戰(zhàn)略。

帕克接著說，從現(xiàn)在起，需求可能仍會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，但他補(bǔ)充說，企業(yè)格局正在改變，“各大油氣公司也在隨之改變”。

6月份，伍德麥肯茲把最近的油價(jià)暴跌稱為歷史上最嚴(yán)重的一次。疫情大流行和今年早些時(shí)候歐佩克+的崩潰嚴(yán)重影響了油價(jià)。

伍德麥肯茲是一家位于蘇格蘭愛丁堡的能源研究和咨詢公司，其歷史可以追溯到1923年。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

More Large Impairments Expected Across Oil and Gas

Wood Mackenzie expects further large impairments to occur across the oil and gas sector, according to Angus Rodger, a director with Wood Mackenzie’s upstream research team.

Speaking after Royal Dutch Shell plc and BP plc’s impairment announcements, Rodger said major oil companies are going through a process of reassessing long-term oil price assumptions and investment hurdle rates as a result of the oil price crash and the coronavirus.

“BP and Shell are just two of the companies that have announced recent changes,” Rodger said in a statement which was sent to Rigzone.

“This process has further to run and we expect further large impairments to occur across the sector,” he added.

Luke Parker, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of corporate analysis, said the impairment Shell announced is about more than an accounting technicality, or an adjustment to near-term price assumptions.

“It’s about fundamental change hitting the entire oil and gas sector,” Parker said in a Wood Mackenzie statement.

“Within this write down, Shell is giving us a message about stranded assets, just like BP did a few weeks ago,” he added.

“Just a few years ago, few within the oil and gas industry would even countenance ideas of climate risk, peak demand, stranded assets, liquidation business models and so on. Today, companies are building strategies around these ideas,” Parker continued.

Parker went on to say that demand might still grow from here but added that the corporate landscape is changing and “the majors are changing with it”.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie dubbed the latest oil price crash the worst in history. The coronavirus pandemic and an OPEC+ breakdown earlier this year have weighed heavily on oil prices.

Wood Mackenzie is an energy research and consultancy company based in Edinburgh, Scotland. The business traces its roots back to 1923.