亞洲汽油利潤率有所改善但挑戰(zhàn)依然存在

據(jù)世界石油6月30日報道，分析師稱，隨著需求出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，亞洲煉油商從汽油中獲得的利潤較5月初的紀(jì)錄低位增長逾兩倍，不過煉油商在維持供應(yīng)后增加產(chǎn)量可能會限制利潤增長。

Refinitiv數(shù)據(jù)顯示，周一新加坡百萬分之十含硫量的汽油的煉油利潤較迪拜原油每高出每桶6.29美元，高于5月5日創(chuàng)下的1.77美元的紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)。

汽油現(xiàn)貨溢價在今年最高水平附近徘徊，交易商認(rèn)為，由于工業(yè)燃料的最糟糕時期已經(jīng)過去，該地區(qū)的整體煉油利潤率將得到支撐。

咨詢公司FGE亞洲石油主管Sri Paravaikkarasu表示:“工業(yè)活動的恢復(fù)，以及公路貨運(yùn)和運(yùn)輸需求的改善，將支持主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體第三季度汽油需求的復(fù)蘇。”FGE預(yù)計，今年下半年的汽油日需求量將較上半年增加60萬桶，但仍比去年同期少49萬桶。

Paravaikkarasu補(bǔ)充稱:"該地區(qū)第三季度的汽油過剩趨勢為每日90萬桶左右，下半年平均為每日84萬桶，較上半年減少30萬桶。"Refinitiv Eikon從2014年開始的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管近期有所上漲，但汽油利潤仍處于有記錄以來最弱的季節(jié)性水平。

惠譽(yù)解決方案(Fitch Solutions)高級油氣分析師Peter Lee表示:“煉油廠重新增加產(chǎn)量對市場來說不是好兆頭。”

印度、韓國、日本和泰國等國的煉油廠，以及中國煉油企業(yè)，預(yù)計將從本月開始增加產(chǎn)量，因為疫情形勢轉(zhuǎn)好提振了對石油產(chǎn)品的需求。

洪偉立 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Asian gasoil margins improve as lockdowns ease, but challenges remain

Asian refiners’ profits from gasoil have more than trebled from a record low seen in early May as demand recovers after sweeping lockdowns imposed to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, although refiners ramping up production after maintenance could cap gains, analysts said.

Refining profits for gasoil with 10 parts per million of sulphur in Singapore were at $6.29 a barrel over Dubai crude on Monday, up from a record low of $1.77 on May 5, Refinitiv data showed.

Gasoil spot premiums are hovering near their strongest levels this year, while traders believe that overall refining margins in the region will be supported as the worst is behind for the industrial fuel.

“Resumption in industrial activities and an improvement in road freight and transport needs will support a recovery in the third quarter gasoil demand in major economies,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director for Asia oil at consultancy FGE.

FGE expects gasoil demand in the second half of the year to rise by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the first half, but still be 490,000 bpd lower compared with the same period a year ago.

“The region’s gasoil surplus should trend flat q-o-q at around 900,000 bpd in the third quarter and the second half (of 2020) should average at 840,000 bpd, down by 300,000 bpd compared to the first half of the year,” Paravaikkarasu added.

Despite recent gains, gasoil profits are still at their weakest seasonal levels on record, according to Refinitiv Eikon data that goes back to 2014.

“Refiners re-ramping up output does not bode well for the markets,” said Peter Lee, senior oil and gas analyst at Fitch Solutions.

Refineries in countries such as India, South Korea, Japan and Thailand, alongside Chinese refiners are expected to increase output starting this month as the easing of lockdown measures boosts demand for oil products.