印尼液化天然氣進(jìn)口將繼續(xù)上升

據(jù)天然氣資訊6月30日消息稱，據(jù)Wood Mackenzie報(bào)道，印尼的LNG進(jìn)口預(yù)計(jì)將從冠狀病毒引發(fā)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷中恢復(fù)。

該國2020年下半年LNG進(jìn)口量可能達(dá)到310萬噸，同比增長120萬噸，增幅63%。

盡管由于節(jié)后旺季的第一季度增長緩慢，但印尼的LNG消費(fèi)量從2020年第二季度開始持續(xù)增長，達(dá)到110萬噸。管道天然氣的減少和較低的現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格可能支撐了印尼的LNG需求。

政府最近還出臺(tái)了一系列法規(guī)，旨在將七個(gè)關(guān)鍵行業(yè)和電力部門的國內(nèi)天然氣價(jià)格降低至每百萬英熱單位6美元。希望這些措施將提高工業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，特別是出口方面的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，并產(chǎn)生乘數(shù)效應(yīng)。

首席分析師Lucy Cullen最近在Wood Mackenzie的印度尼西亞虛擬能源論壇上發(fā)表講話說：“印尼的情況總體上與亞洲的前景一致。今年該地區(qū)的LNG進(jìn)口量將達(dá)到2.5億噸，比去年增加2.5％，到2025年可能達(dá)到3.15億噸。到2040年，亞洲將占全球LNG消費(fèi)量的40%，而印尼及其東南亞鄰國將成為這一增長的關(guān)鍵引擎。

“我們預(yù)計(jì)，未來幾年，LNG將在印尼天然氣供應(yīng)中占據(jù)越來越大的份額，這將為LNG采購和再氣化基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)提供機(jī)遇。但為了平衡不斷增長的消費(fèi)，印尼還需要關(guān)注國內(nèi)，解決產(chǎn)量下降的問題?！?/span>

雖然Tangguh LNG第一階段表現(xiàn)出色，去年交付了117批貨物，但第二階段擴(kuò)建預(yù)計(jì)將面臨延期。在LNG EPC的主要承包商Chiyoda表示難以如期完成該項(xiàng)目后，BP于2019年宣布首次將項(xiàng)目推遲一年。該項(xiàng)目還面臨著將勞動(dòng)力和材料轉(zhuǎn)移到工廠偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的挑戰(zhàn)，而印尼東部的海嘯活動(dòng)增加了所需的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)備工作量。

根據(jù)Wood Mackenzie的能源市場(chǎng)，在過去幾年中，在一次能源需求中，印度天然氣所占的份額約為12-13%。

Cullen表示：“發(fā)電成本和滿足不斷增長的電力需求是印尼的關(guān)鍵。盡管煤炭價(jià)格會(huì)一直更便宜，但從長遠(yuǎn)來看，更低的天然氣價(jià)格是否會(huì)鼓勵(lì)天然氣在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中發(fā)揮更大的作用，并最終加速國家能源轉(zhuǎn)型，將是一件有趣的事情。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 天然氣資訊

Indonesia’s LNG imports continue to rise

Indonesia’s LNG imports are expected to be resilient against the coronavirus-led global economic downturn, reports Wood Mackenzie.

The country’s 2H20 LNG imports could hit 3.1 million t, a 1.2 million t or 63% increase year-on-year.

Despite a slow first quarter due to post-holiday season, Indonesia’s LNG consumption has continued to rise from 2Q20 at 1.1 million t. Reduced pipeline gas and low spot prices were likely to have supported Indonesia’s LNG demand.

The government has also recently introduced a set of regulations aimed at lowering domestic gas price to US$6/million Btu for seven key industries and the electricity sector. It is hoped that the measures would improve industrial competitiveness, especially for exports, and create multiplier effects.

Speaking recently at Wood Mackenzie’s Indonesia Virtual Energy Forum, Principal Analyst Lucy Cullen said: “The story of Indonesia is consistent with Asia’s outlook at large. The region’s LNG imports will reach 250 million t this year, a 2.5% increase compared to last year, and could hit 315 million t in 2025. By 2040, Asia will account for 40% of global LNG consumption with Indonesia and its Southeast Asian neighbours being key engines of this growth.

“We expect LNG to make up a growing share of Indonesia’s gas supply mix in the years ahead, offering opportunities for LNG procurement and regasification infrastructure development. But to balance rising consumption, Indonesia also needs to look inwards to address declining production.”

While Tangguh LNG Phase 1 showed strong performance with 117 cargoes delivered last year, the Phase 2 expansion is expected to face delays. In 2019, BP announced a first delay by a year after the LNG EPC lead-contractor Chiyoda signalled difficulties completing the project on schedule. The project also faced challenges moving labour and materials to the remote location of the plant, while tsunami activity in Eastern Indonesia added to the amount of site preparation work required.

According to Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Markets Tool gas’ share of total primary energy demand in Indonesia has been about 12 - 13% over the past few years.

Cullen said: “Cost of generation and meeting growing electricity demand is key in Indonesia. While coal will always be cheaper, it would be interesting to see in the longer term whether lower gas prices could encourage greater role of gas in the energy mix, and eventually accelerate the country’s energy transition.”