液化天然氣價(jià)格對美國LNG行業(yè)影響巨大

據(jù)6月28日今日油價(jià)報(bào)道，上周，Tellurian表示，該公司將于明年對Driftwood液化天然氣項(xiàng)目做出最終投資決定。一方面，這是好消息：在與印度Petronet的長期供應(yīng)協(xié)議失敗后，Tellurian停止了對該項(xiàng)目的更新。另一方面，這一聲明使其成為一系列液化天然氣公司中最新一家將最終投資決定推遲一年的公司，這對該行業(yè)來說并不是個(gè)好兆頭。而從該公司首席執(zhí)行官解釋中可以得出，該公司需要天然氣價(jià)格的提升，特別是亞洲現(xiàn)貨市場價(jià)格超過每百萬英熱5美元，但目前，液化天然氣的價(jià)格約為每百萬英熱2美元。要想在一年之內(nèi)攀升超過100%的可能性有待商榷。

根據(jù)殼牌公司的說法，由于今年新增供應(yīng)量緩慢，明年LNG價(jià)格將會(huì)上漲。但這一預(yù)測是在該公司今年2月發(fā)布的《2020年液化天然氣展望》(Outlook 2020)中做出的。自那以后，殼牌退出了查爾斯湖液化天然氣項(xiàng)目，據(jù)報(bào)道，該公司正在考慮出售其澳大利亞液化天然氣業(yè)務(wù)的部分股權(quán)。盡管后者可能是危機(jī)前撤資計(jì)劃的一部分，但在退出查爾斯湖項(xiàng)目之前，該公司對液化天然氣市場持樂觀態(tài)度。

該公司在決定退出查爾斯湖項(xiàng)目時(shí)，提到了市場狀況。印度Petronet在終止與Tellurian的初步長期協(xié)議時(shí)，也考慮到了同樣的市場環(huán)境。目前，現(xiàn)貨市場上的液化天然氣比長期供應(yīng)合同中的價(jià)格便宜得多。正是這種價(jià)格差異改變了項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃表，推遲了FID的日期。有趣的是，正是美國液化天然氣生產(chǎn)商促成了這一局面，盡管他們并非自愿。

液化天然氣也未能幸免于疫情帶來的危機(jī)影響。全國封鎖開始后，對所謂的過渡性燃料的需求也大幅下降。在供過于求的情況下，買家的壓力只會(huì)越來越大，美國生產(chǎn)商不得不在現(xiàn)貨市場傾銷他們的產(chǎn)品。難怪自4月以來持續(xù)下滑的液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格，在5月底觸及每百萬英熱1.85美元的歷史低點(diǎn)。

本月早些時(shí)候，國際能源署(International Energy Agency)發(fā)布了一份關(guān)于天然氣和液化天然氣的新報(bào)告，報(bào)告中稱，由于疫情沖擊了本已疲軟的市場，預(yù)計(jì)2020年天然氣行業(yè)將遭遇有史以來最大的需求沖擊。這一沖擊將導(dǎo)致全球天然氣需求下降4%。IEA表示，需求有望在明年開始恢復(fù)，但其補(bǔ)充稱，這一沖擊仍將導(dǎo)致到2025年約有750億立方米的天然氣需求減少。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

U.S. LNG Industry Needs Prices To Double

Last week, Tellurian said it would make the final investment decision on the Driftwood LNG project next year. On the one hand, the news is good: Tellurian had stopped making updates on the project after its long-term supply deal with India’s Petronet fell through. On the other hand, the announcement makes it the latest in a string of LNG companies pushing their FIDs back by a year, and this does not bode well for the industry. It is enough to look at the reason why Tellurian postponed its final investment decision, as explained by the chief executive: the company needs gas prices--specifically, Asian spot market prices--to be over $5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Right now, LNG trades at about $2 per mmBtu. Can it climb more than 100 percent within a year?

According to Shell, prices will rise by next year because new supply will be slow in coming this year. But that forecast was made in the supermajor’s LNG Outlook 2020, which was released in February. Since then, Shell has pulled out of the Lake Charles LNG project and is reportedly mulling over the sale of a stake in its Australian LNG business. While the latter is likely part of a divestment program running from before the crisis, the exit from the Lake Charles project is interesting, especially in light of the company’s continued optimism about the LNG market.

The company cited market conditions in its decision to pull out from Lake Charles LNG. India’s Petronet must have had the same market conditions in mind when it let its preliminary long-term agreement with Tellurian expire. Right now, LNG is much cheaper on the spot market than in long-term supply contracts. It is this price disparity that is changing timelines and pushing back FID dates. And ironically enough, it is U.S. LNG producers that contributed to this situation, though not willingly.

LNG has not been spared by the coronavirus. Demand for the so-called bridge fuel also slumped when the national lockdowns began. Pressed for buyers in a situation of oversupply that was only going to get worse, U.S. producers had to dump their product on the spot market. No wonder then that LNG spot prices, which have been on a persistent slide since April, reached an all-time low of $1.85 per million British thermal units at the end of May.

The International Energy Agency earlier this month published a new report on gas and LNG in which it said that “natural gas is expected to experience its largest demand shock on record in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic hits an already weakened market.”

This shock will cause a 4-percent drop in global gas demand. The IEA said the lost demand would start returning next year, but it added that the shock will still lead to lost demand of some 75 billion cu m of natural gas in the period to 2025.