印度石油需求預(yù)計將在9月底前反彈

據(jù)6月28日Global Energy報道，第三大石油消費國印度預(yù)計，燃料需求將比國際能源機構(gòu)(IEA)和歐佩克的預(yù)測更早恢復(fù)。印度石油部長達爾曼德拉·普拉丹表示："縱看過去幾周的趨勢，與2019年6月相比，到6月底，我們已經(jīng)恢復(fù)了85%的需求。我相信到第二季度末需求將全面恢復(fù)。"這里他指的第二季度是截至到9月份。

印度3月25日實施的全球最大規(guī)模封鎖，令交通和工業(yè)燃料的需求下降了70%，煉油廠不得不減少原油加工和石油進口。國際能源署和歐佩克預(yù)計，印度的石油需求要到今年年底才能恢復(fù)正常。他表示:“解鎖已經(jīng)開始，許多經(jīng)濟活動暫停了一個半月多的時間。汽油、柴油、液化石油氣和其他商業(yè)燃料的需求正在恢復(fù)到最初的水平，不過對航空燃料的需求我們?nèi)杂悬c擔心?！?/span>

亞洲作為石油需求中心，整個地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇并不平衡，但第二波疫情的影響正威脅著亞洲經(jīng)濟的良性發(fā)展。普拉丹預(yù)計，印度擺脫當前形勢后，未來十年的能源需求將成倍增長，并正在尋找能源來滿足日益增長的需求。他指出，到2030年，印度每年需要4.39億噸的煉油產(chǎn)能，到2040年需要5.33億噸的煉油產(chǎn)能，而現(xiàn)在只有2.5億噸。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Global Energy

原文如下：

India’s oil demand to rebound by September-end; recovery to be sooner than IEA, OPEC estimates

India, the third-biggest oil consumer, expects fuel demand to return to normal earlier than projections by the International Energy Agency and OPEC. “If you look at the trend of the past few weeks, I’m confident that by the end of second quarter, demand will be as usual,” India’s Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said at the BloombergNEF Summit, referring to the quarter ending September. “At the end of June, we have already achieved 85% of our demand compared to June 2019.”

The world’s biggest lockdown put in place on March 25 in India pummeled demand for transportation and industrial fuels by as much as 70%, forcing a reduction in crude processing and oil imports by refiners. The IEA and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expect India’s demand to not normalize until the end of this year. “Unlocking process has started and a lot of economic activities are going on for more than one-and-a-half months,” the minister said. “Petrol, diesel, LPG and other commercial fuels are coming back to original demand. We are a little bit apprehensive about aviation fuel.”

Asia, the demand center for oil, experienced an uneven recovery across the region, but a second wave of infections is threatening to put the brakes on its positive trajectory. Pradhan expects India’s energy demand to grow multifold over the next decade upon emerging from the pandemic and is looking at all energy sources to meet the expanding appetite. The country would need refining capacity of 439 million tons a year by 2030 and 533 million tons by 2040 from about 250 million tons now, he said.