油價(jià)反彈支撐中游板塊

據(jù)今日油價(jià)6月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，自3月低點(diǎn)以來，油氣行業(yè)的中游板塊已收復(fù)了大部分失地。盡管今年石油行業(yè)整體仍處于下跌狀態(tài)，但AMEI指數(shù)今年迄今為止下跌了19.5%，不過仍好于其他所有主要能源板塊基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)。

獨(dú)立能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和master limited partnership (MLP)市場情報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Alerian的最新研究報(bào)告討論了今年中游板塊的“過山車”式行情。報(bào)告指出，從12月31日到3月18日的低點(diǎn)，Alerian MLP基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施指數(shù)(AMZI)下跌了67.4%，略高于西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格的66.6%跌幅。

自3月份以來，有幾個(gè)因素推動(dòng)了中游板塊經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。最重要的因素可能是油價(jià)反彈，加上歐佩克同意大幅抑制石油產(chǎn)量，然后延長減產(chǎn)。

但Alerian亦指出，20 20年第一季度財(cái)報(bào)季前及期間有建設(shè)性的公司業(yè)績報(bào)告，以及大型企業(yè)有彈性的營收可能支撐市場。3月聯(lián)邦基金利率降至零也被認(rèn)為是促使投資者尋求從中游行業(yè)獲得更高收益的潛在因素。

麥哲倫中游公司和能源轉(zhuǎn)移公司都是反對(duì)杠桿率上升趨勢的公司，因此他們可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己能夠更好地承受削減分配的壓力。

如前所述，許多中游公司將首先通過削減資本支出來應(yīng)對(duì)收入的下降。Alerian寫道:“2020年，從每個(gè)MLP的初始指導(dǎo)到當(dāng)前指導(dǎo)的平均支出減少百分比為-24.1%，而美國證券投資協(xié)會(huì)的成員預(yù)計(jì)在今年的初始指引基礎(chǔ)上再削減支出22.5%。”

本季度的財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績可能是人們記憶中最糟糕的，但投資者似乎已經(jīng)將這些因素考慮在內(nèi)了。鑒于中游行業(yè)在當(dāng)前危機(jī)中為支撐其財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)所采取的措施，該行業(yè)繼續(xù)提供了一個(gè)令人信服的收入主張，且風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比大多數(shù)能源行業(yè)要小。

鄒勤 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Rebound In Oil Prices Helps Prop Up Midstream Sector

Since the March lows, the midstream sector of the oil and gas industry has recovered most of its losses. While the overall sector is still down for the year, the 19.5% year-to-date loss in the Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI) is still better than all other major energy sector benchmarks.

The latest research note from independent energy infrastructure and master limited partnership (MLP) market intelligence data provider Alerian discusses this year’s roller coaster in the midstream sector. The report notes that from December 31 to the low on March 18, the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZI) decreased 67.4%, slightly more than the 66.6% decline in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Since March, several factors have helped drive the midstream recovery. The rebound in oil prices, aided by OPEC’s agreement to substantially curb oil output and then to extended those cuts was probably the most significant factor.

But Alerian also identified “constructive company updates before and during 1Q20 earnings season and resilient distributions from larger names” as having likely supported performance. The federal funds rate cut to zero in March was also identified as a potential factor driving investors to seek higher income from the midstream sector.

Magellan Midstream and Energy Transfer are among those bucking the trend of increasing leverage and hence may find themselves better able to withstand the pressure to cut distributions.

As noted previously, many midstream companies will first try to cope with falling revenues by cutting capital expenditures. Alerian writes that “the average percent reduction in 2020 spending from each MLP’s initial guidance to current guidance is -24.1%, while the constituents of the AMEI expect to reduce spending by an additional -22.5% over initial guidance for this year.”

This quarter’s financial results will likely be the worst in memory, but investors seem to have already taken those into account. Given the moves the midstream sector has made to shore up its financial metrics in this ongoing crisis, the sector continues to offer a compelling income proposition with less risk than most of the energy sector.