沙特石油市場(chǎng)份額將創(chuàng)上世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)最高水平

據(jù)路透社6月12日消息，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在一份報(bào)告中稱，沙特阿拉伯在石油市場(chǎng)的份額在2011-2020這十年中將升至1980年代以來(lái)最高水平，因其他地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)投資在疫情來(lái)襲后枯竭。

據(jù)這家華爾街銀行表示，在需求出現(xiàn)前所未有的暴跌后，油價(jià)今年已暴跌逾40%，促使石油和天然氣公司宣布削減開(kāi)支，到2020年將總計(jì)削減6,250億美元。

摩根大通分析師Christyan Malek對(duì)路透社表示，投資緊縮將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量下降，這將在兩年內(nèi)推動(dòng)基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油價(jià)格升至每桶60美元。

由于全球疫情使全球經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯不前，布倫特原油價(jià)格在4月份一度跌至每桶16美元，目前交易價(jià)格接近每桶40美元。

摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)，2020年全球石油日均需求將為9,100萬(wàn)桶，較此前預(yù)估減少900萬(wàn)桶，而到2021年11月，石油消費(fèi)才會(huì)恢復(fù)到疫情前的1億桶/天水平。

但摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)，消費(fèi)模式的改變將導(dǎo)致本十年的日需求量比此前預(yù)測(cè)永久減少300萬(wàn)桶。

與此同時(shí)，由于缺乏對(duì)新產(chǎn)出的投資以及一些油田的關(guān)閉，石油供應(yīng)將減少500萬(wàn)桶/天。該銀行表示，沙特阿拉伯的生產(chǎn)成本最低，產(chǎn)能最大，最適合填補(bǔ)這一空缺。

Malek稱，"隨著非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)和美國(guó)的產(chǎn)量減少，沙特阿拉伯將在爭(zhēng)奪市場(chǎng)份額的戰(zhàn)斗中勝出。"

該銀行預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量在2010年代大幅增長(zhǎng)，但在這十年里幾乎不會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，到2030年僅會(huì)從今年的1090萬(wàn)桶/天攀升至1,100萬(wàn)桶/天。

在油價(jià)下滑之前，頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在2020年達(dá)到1700萬(wàn)桶/天。

因此，摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)，一旦油價(jià)升至每桶60美元，歐佩克成員國(guó)將填補(bǔ)供應(yīng)缺口。60美元是歐佩克成員國(guó)平衡預(yù)算所需的平均價(jià)格。

盡管歐佩克的市場(chǎng)份額從2016年占總石油供應(yīng)的39%的峰值下降到2020-21年的33%，但摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)，到2025年，該組織將重新獲得約40%的市場(chǎng)份額。

Malek稱，沙特阿拉伯的市場(chǎng)份額將從2020年的11.6%增至15%，這是自上世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)的最高水平。

裘寅 編譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Saudi oil market share set to hit highest since 1980s: J.P. Morgan

Saudi Arabia’s share of the oil market is set to rise this decade to its highest since the 1980s as investment in production elsewhere dries up in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, J.P. Morgan said in a report.

Oil prices have plunged more than 40% this year after an unprecedented collapse in demand, prompting oil and gas companies to announce spending cuts that will total $625 billion by the end of the decade, according to the Wall Street bank.

The investment crunch will lead to a loss of output that is set to push benchmark Brent oil prices to $60 a barrel within two years, J.P. Morgan analyst Christyan Malek told Reuters.

Brent LCOc1 fell as low as $16 a barrel in April as the pandemic forced economies around the world to lock down and it is currently trading near $40 a barrel. [O/R]

The U.S. bank expects global oil demand to average 91 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, 9 million lower than earlier estimates, with consumption only recovering to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd in November 2021.

But changes in consumption patterns will lead to a permanent demand loss of 3 million bpd this decade compared with previous forecasts, J.P. Morgan forecasts.

Oil supply, meanwhile, is set to fall by 5 million bpd due to a lack of investment in new output and the closure of some fields. With the lowest production costs and biggest capacity, Saudi Arabia is best placed to take up the slack, the bank said.

“Saudi Arabia will come out on top in the fight for market share as non-OPEC and U.S. production fades,” Malek said.

U.S. shale oil production, which grew sharply throughout the 2010s, will barely rise this decade, climbing only to 11 million bpd by 2030 from 10.9 million this year, the bank forecast.

Before the slide in oil prices, shale output was expected to reach 17 million bpd by the end of this decade.

As a result, J.P. Morgan expects members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) to fill the supply gap, once oil prices reach $60 a barrel, which is the price OPEC countries need on average to balance their budgets.

While OPEC’s market share fell from a peak of 39% of total oil supply in 2016 to 33% in 2020-21, the bank expects the group to regain a market share of about 40% by 2025.

Saudi Arabia’s market share is set to grow from 11.6% in 2020 to 15% over the period, a level not seen since the 1980s, Malek said.