亞洲各地石油需求復(fù)蘇不平衡使油價(jià)承壓

據(jù)彭博社6月11日?qǐng)?bào)道，亞洲各地的燃料需求正在逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)，但這個(gè)全球最大石油進(jìn)口地區(qū)的多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體似乎不太可能復(fù)制中國(guó)的快速?gòu)?fù)蘇。

今年2月，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本上處于停滯狀態(tài)，5月中旬，中國(guó)的消費(fèi)水平已回到去年同期水平。雖然就疫情的影響而言，其他國(guó)家較中國(guó)要晚幾個(gè)月，但燃油消費(fèi)的反彈速度并沒(méi)有中國(guó)那么快。

日本5月份汽油需求仍較上年同期下降27%，而韓國(guó)汽油加工商的開工率比平時(shí)低了5至 10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。上月，印度柴油銷量同比下降近三分之一。

中國(guó)及時(shí)控制疫情，使其經(jīng)濟(jì)得以更快地反彈，這是造成這種差異的原因之一。相比之下，由于布倫特原油價(jià)格自4月份以來(lái)翻了一番，亞洲各地的加工商現(xiàn)在不得不努力應(yīng)對(duì)利潤(rùn)率下降的危機(jī)。

牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)中國(guó)能源項(xiàng)目主任米哈爾梅丹(Michal Meidan)表示:“原油價(jià)格的上漲肯定是受到東部地區(qū)購(gòu)買活動(dòng)的推動(dòng)，煉油商囤積了30美元/桶的石油。但我認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)有點(diǎn)超前了復(fù)蘇可能是漸進(jìn)的，盡管東南亞的驅(qū)動(dòng)力開始回升?！?/span>

需求反彈步伐的區(qū)域不平衡表明，除非消費(fèi)明顯回升，否則石油市場(chǎng)將很難從目前水平恢復(fù)。全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油有望出現(xiàn)七周來(lái)的首次單周下跌現(xiàn)象。

洪偉立 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Asia’s Uneven Oil Demand Recovery Shows Rally Faces Hurdles

Fuel demand is on the mend across Asia as nations emerge from coronavirus lockdowns, but most economies in the world’s biggest oil-importing region appear unlikely to replicate China’s rapid recovery.

Chinese consumption was already back at similar levels to a year earlier in mid-May after the country was largely shut down in February. While other nations are generally a couple of months behind China in terms of the impact from the pandemic, fuel consumption isn’t snapping back as fast.

Japanese gasoline demand was still down 27% in May from a year earlier, while South Korean processors are operating at rates that are 5 to 10 percentage points lower than usual. Indian diesel sales were nearly a third lower last month on a year-on-year basis.

The drastic steps taken by China to contain the virus, which allowed its economy to bounce back faster, are one reason for the disparities. Chinese refiners also benefited from a domestic floor price that boosted margins relative to their peers. By contrast, with Brent prices doubling since April processors across Asia are now having to grapple with depressed margins.

“The crude story is certainly picking up on buying activity in the East, as refiners have stocked up on $30 dollar oil,” said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “But I think the market is getting ahead of itself slightly” and the recovery is likely to be gradual even as driving starts to pick up again in Southeast Asia, she said.

The uneven pace of the rebound suggests that oil will find it tougher to rally from here unless consumption picks up markedly. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is on track for its first weekly drop in seven weeks.