儲(chǔ)存于北海的過(guò)剩石油因需求攀升而下降三分之一

據(jù)世界石油6月10日倫敦彭博社報(bào)道，數(shù)周以來(lái)積壓在北海遠(yuǎn)洋油輪上的基準(zhǔn)石油供應(yīng)開(kāi)始減少。

自疫情導(dǎo)致需求崩潰以來(lái)，該地區(qū)有數(shù)百萬(wàn)桶過(guò)剩原油被儲(chǔ)存在油輪上。但根據(jù)彭博社匯編的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，如今這一數(shù)量正開(kāi)始大幅減少。從英國(guó)，法國(guó)和荷蘭到處都有船只停泊，到5月底，浮船儲(chǔ)量達(dá)到1200萬(wàn)桶。 這個(gè)數(shù)字現(xiàn)在下降了35％。

該地區(qū)浮式儲(chǔ)存量的下降是很重要的，因?yàn)樗婕暗脑偷燃?jí)有助于形成即期布倫特基準(zhǔn)，該基準(zhǔn)用于解決生產(chǎn)商和煉油廠之間數(shù)百萬(wàn)桶的實(shí)際石油交易。包括沙特和俄羅斯在內(nèi)的一些國(guó)家正在引領(lǐng)全球限制石油產(chǎn)量，并削減向歐洲西北部的石油供應(yīng)。這推高了油價(jià)，消除了交易員所謂的“超級(jí)遠(yuǎn)期溢價(jià)”(super-contango)，這種溢價(jià)曾使儲(chǔ)存原油變得非常有利可圖。

法國(guó)巴黎銀行石油策略師Harry Tchillinguirian表示，建立浮式儲(chǔ)備的動(dòng)力已經(jīng)大大減弱。在我們看到需求復(fù)蘇的地方，這些庫(kù)存的持有者很可能會(huì)留意投機(jī)性銷(xiāo)售。

盡管基準(zhǔn)等級(jí)的浮動(dòng)庫(kù)存原油減少使生產(chǎn)商對(duì)削減效果感到樂(lè)觀，但要消除全球市場(chǎng)的過(guò)剩仍有許多工作要做。

根據(jù)Genscape Inc.的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，歐洲主要存儲(chǔ)中心阿姆斯特丹，鹿特丹和安特衛(wèi)普的陸上庫(kù)存上周躍升至兩年來(lái)的最高水平。其中包括來(lái)自世界各地的非基準(zhǔn)等級(jí)。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)分析公司Vortexa Ltd.的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周全球海上原油儲(chǔ)量為1.8億桶。這至少是自2016年以來(lái)的最高水平。

但是北海的跡象更加樂(lè)觀。 隨著浮式儲(chǔ)存原油開(kāi)始下降，該地區(qū)的現(xiàn)貨原油價(jià)格猛漲。布倫特原油在本周初創(chuàng)下了三個(gè)月來(lái)的最高水平。

亞洲煉油商也正在提高其加工能力，有可能進(jìn)一步消耗北海石油。 其中三艘浮式油輪位于英國(guó)和丹麥的船到船轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)站，在那里通常會(huì)裝載在更大的油輪航行至亞洲，而另外四艘已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)到超級(jí)油輪上。

Onyx Commodities首席執(zhí)行官格雷格紐曼(Greg Newman)表示，浮動(dòng)存儲(chǔ)正在被釋放和消耗。我們一直處于穩(wěn)步上升的軌道，貨物也開(kāi)始向亞洲轉(zhuǎn)移。

郝芬 譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Global surplus of North Sea oil drops by a third on climbing demand

A glut of benchmark North Sea oil that’s been sitting on ocean-going tankers for weeks is starting to diminish.

Millions of barrels of the region’s unwanted crude have been stashed on oil tankers since the coronavirus caused a demand collapse. But now the volumes are starting to shrink sharply, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Anchored on vessels everywhere from the U.K., to France and the Netherlands, the floating hoard reached 12 million barrels at the end of May. That figure has now dropped by 35%.

The decline in the region’s floating storage is important because the grades in question help shape the Dated Brent benchmark that’s used to settle millions of barrels of physical oil transactions between producers and refineries. Nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading a global push to limit output and have cut deliveries into northwest Europe. That’s lifted oil prices and eliminated what traders call a super-contango that had made it highly lucrative to store.

“The incentives to build floating storage have greatly diminished,” said Harry Tchillinguirian, oil strategist at BNP Paribas SA. “The holders of the storage are probably keeping an eye out for opportunistic sales where we see pockets of demand recovery.”

While a diminishing floating stockpile of benchmark grades offers producers cause to be optimistic that their cuts are effective, there’s still a lot of work to be done to eliminate a surplus in the global market.

On-land stockpiles in Europe’s key storage hub of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, known as ARA, jumped to their highest level in two years last week, according to Genscape Inc. That includes non-benchmark grades from all over the world.

Similarly, there were also 180 million barrels of crude stored at sea worldwide last week, according to data from Vortexa Ltd., a data analytics firm. That’s the highest since at least 2016.

But the signs from the North Sea are more bullish. As the floating storage has started to clear, the price of physical crude in the region has jumped. Brent, one of the five grades that makes up the Dated Brent benchmark, changed hands at its strongest level in three months earlier this week.

Asian refiners are ramping up their processing too, potentially draining the North Sea oil further. Three of the floating cargoes are at ship-to-ship transfer sites in the U.K. and Denmark, where they would normally load onto a larger ship to sail to Asia, while four others have already transferred onto supertankers.

“Floating storage is being released and being absorbed,” said Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Commodities. “We’ve been in a steady upward trajectory and cargoes are starting to move to Asia too.”