今年全球天然氣市場將經(jīng)歷史上最大需求沖擊

據(jù)天然氣新聞2020年6月10日倫敦報(bào)道，國際能源署（IEA）6月10日表示，由于疫情大流行打擊了本已疲軟的市場，今年全球天然氣市場預(yù)計(jì)將經(jīng)歷“有記錄以來最大的需求沖擊”，今年全球天然氣消費(fèi)量將比去年下降4%。

IEA在最新的天然氣年度報(bào)告中還說，盡管天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年逐步復(fù)蘇，但疫情大流行的中期影響將削弱全球天然氣需求的增長。

IEA在報(bào)告中表示：“截至6月初，所有主要天然氣市場都在經(jīng)歷需求下降或增長遲緩。”

IEA表示，盡管封鎖措施正在逐步解除，但I(xiàn)EA的預(yù)測并沒有假設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)會迅速復(fù)蘇，導(dǎo)致今年需求減少1500億立方米，或下降4%。

不過，IEA在4月底發(fā)布的《全球能源回顧》報(bào)告中對需求下降5%的初步估計(jì)有所上調(diào)。

IEA表示：“然而，影響的程度仍然是前所未有的。”

報(bào)告稱：“這將是自20世紀(jì)后半期天然氣市場大規(guī)模發(fā)展以來，有記錄的最大年消費(fèi)量下降，降幅將是2009年最新一次衰退的兩倍，2009年全球天然氣需求下降了2%?！?/span>

據(jù)初步估計(jì)，去年全球天然氣消費(fèi)量約為3.99萬億立方米，因此下降4%將使今年全球天然氣需求回落至3.83 萬億立方米左右。

李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞

原文如下：

Gas market to experience 'largest demand shock on record' in 2020: IEA

The global gas market is expected to experience its "largest demand shock on record" in 2020, the International Energy Agency said June 10, with consumption set to fall 4% on the year as the coronavirus pandemic hits an already weakened market.

In its latest annual gas report, the IEA also said that while gas demand was expected to recover gradually in 2021, the medium-term impact of the virus would dent gas demand growth.

"As of early June, all major gas markets are experiencing a fall in demand or sluggish growth at best as is the case of China," the IEA said.

The agency said that although lockdown measures are being gradually lifted, its forecasts do not assume that economies will recover promptly, leading to 150 Bcm of lost demand this year, or a 4% decline.

The decline in demand has, though, been revised up from an initial estimate of 5% demand decline published at the end of April in the IEA's Global Energy Review.

"The magnitude of the impact remains however unprecedented," the IEA said.

"This would be the largest recorded annual decrease in consumption since the gas market developed at scale in the second half of the 20th century, and the drop would be twice bigger than the latest downturn in 2009, when demand fell by 2%," it said.

Preliminary estimates put the world's gas consumption in 2019 at around 3.99 trillion cu m, so a 4% decline would see demand slip back to around 3.83 Tcm.