EIA：全球石油市場比預(yù)期更早接近平衡

據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站6月9日消息 美國能源信息署（EIA）在6月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中表示，全球石油需求的更快復(fù)蘇和全球石油產(chǎn)量的急劇下降，正使市場比一個月前的預(yù)測更早接近平衡。

布倫特原油期貨價格于2020年6月4日收于39.99美元/桶，較2020年5月1日上漲13.55美元/桶。同期，俄克拉荷馬州庫欣市交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油（WTI）期貨價格上漲17.63美元/桶，6月4日收于37.41美元/桶。

幾個因素可能為原油價格提供了支撐。初步的石油消費數(shù)據(jù)和主要石油生產(chǎn)商的額外努力表明，全球石油市場的供過于求并沒有EIA在5月STEO中預(yù)測的那么嚴(yán)重。隨著美國和經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織成員國開始從封鎖狀態(tài)重新開放，石油消費的早期指標(biāo)顯示，石油消費量較4月份的低水平有所增加。

EIA估計，5月份全球石油和其他液體燃料的平均消費量為8290萬桶/日，比4月份的消費量增加370萬桶/日，比5月份STEO的預(yù)測多290萬桶/日。

此外，由于歐佩克+成員國自愿減產(chǎn)，以及美國致密油產(chǎn)量迅速下降，全球石油產(chǎn)量一直在下降。

EIA對5月份全球液體燃料供應(yīng)的估計比上月STEO的預(yù)測低50萬桶/日。除了歐佩克＋最初總計970萬桶/日的減產(chǎn)之外，沙特、科威特和阿聯(lián)酋宣布，在最初承諾的基礎(chǔ)上，在2020年6月額外減產(chǎn)約120萬桶/日。部分基于這些削減，EIA已將6月份全球石油液體供應(yīng)預(yù)測較上月下調(diào)220萬桶/日。

EIA在6月6日OPEC+宣布將從5月和6月延長減產(chǎn)至7月之前完成了這一預(yù)測。在做出這一決定之前，有關(guān)擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)管理的談判促成了原油價格的上漲。這一舉措并沒有反映出5月和6月削減計劃的延期。

EIA目前預(yù)計，2020年下半年布倫特原油月均價將達(dá)到37美元/桶，2021年將升至48美元/桶。

原油價格上漲的預(yù)測反映了2020年下半年至2021年全球石油庫存的預(yù)期下降。EIA預(yù)計，未來幾個月庫存水平高企，原油生產(chǎn)能力閑置，將限制價格上漲壓力，但隨著庫存下降至2021年，這些價格上漲壓力將加大。

王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

EIA: Oil market closer to balance sooner than expected

The faster recovery of global oil demand and steeper declines in global oil production are bringing markets closer to balance sooner than the forecasts a month ago, the US Energy Information Administration said in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil settled at $39.99/bbl on June 4, 2020, an increase of $13.55/bbl from May 1, 2020. The front-month futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Okla., increased by $17.63/bbl during the same period, settling at $37.41/bbl on June 4.

“Several factors likely provided support to crude oil prices. Initial oil consumption data and additional efforts by major oil producers indicate that the oversupply in global oil markets has not been as severe as EIA had forecast in the May STEO. As US states and countries in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began to reopen from lockdown, early indicators of petroleum consumption have shown increases from the low April levels,” EIA said.

EIA estimates that the global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels averaged 82.9 million b/d in May, up 3.7 million b/d from April consumption and 2.9 million b/d more than forecast in the May STEO.

In addition, global oil production has been declining as a result of voluntary production cuts from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+), as well as from rapid declines in tight oil production in the US.

EIA’s estimate of global liquid fuels supply in May is 500,000 b/d lower than forecast in last month’s STEO. In addition to OPEC+’s initial production cuts—totaling 9.7 million b/d—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE announced additional reductions of about 1.2 million b/d for June 2020 beyond their initial commitments. Partly based on these cuts, EIA has revised down the forecast for supply of petroleum liquids globally during June by 2.2 million b/d compared with last month’s forecast.

EIA completed this forecast before OPEC+ announced on June 6 that it would extend production cuts from May and June through July. Leading up to this decision, talks of extended production management contributed to higher crude oil prices. This STEO does not reflect an extension of the May and June cuts.

EIA now expects monthly Brent prices will average $37/bbl during the second half of 2020 and rise to an average of $48/bbl in 2021.

The forecast of rising crude oil prices reflects expected declines in global oil inventories during the second half of 2020 and through 2021. EIA expects high inventory levels and spare crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase.