美國(guó)2020年原油產(chǎn)量降幅將高于預(yù)期

據(jù)6月10日Oil Monster消息：美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)周二表示，2020年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將下降67萬桶/天，至1,156萬桶/天，與之前預(yù)測(cè)的54萬桶/天相比，下降幅度更大，原因是鉆探活動(dòng)大幅減少。

據(jù)估計(jì)，美國(guó)石油和其他液體燃料消耗量將減少240萬桶/天，至1,806萬桶/天，而此前的預(yù)測(cè)為減少219萬桶/天。

由于疫情沖擊了全球需求，并限制了旅行，今年油價(jià)暴跌。

EIA稱，全球石油消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)將減少830萬桶/天，至9253萬桶/天，降幅高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的815萬桶/天。不過，隨著各國(guó)放松封鎖，全球需求已開始小幅上升。

"初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球石油市場(chǎng)的再平衡速度快于EIA此前的預(yù)測(cè)。"EIA署長(zhǎng)琳達(dá)·卡普亞諾在一份聲明中稱?！拔覀冾A(yù)計(jì)，全球石油庫(kù)存將從6月開始減少，原因是6月全球石油產(chǎn)量急劇下降，以及全球石油需求高于此前預(yù)期。”

石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)、俄羅斯和其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)4月同意每日減產(chǎn)970萬桶。該組織上周六同意將減產(chǎn)維持到7月，約占全球供應(yīng)量的10％。

北美各地的生產(chǎn)商也紛紛減產(chǎn)，美國(guó)的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量已降至歷史最低水平。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)下降，到2021年3月將降至1,060萬桶/天，而復(fù)蘇跡象或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)在2021年底。

2021年美國(guó)石油需求將增加140萬桶/天，至1,946萬桶，而EIA此前的預(yù)測(cè)為145萬桶/天。

馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

U.S. Crude Oil Output Decline in 2020 to be Steeper Than Previously Expected

U.S. crude output is set to fall by 670,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 11.56 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, steeper than the 540,000 bpd decline it forecast previously as drillers have slashed activity.

The agency now expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to plunge 2.4 million bpd to 18.06 million bpd in 2020 compared with its previous forecast for a drop of 2.19 million bpd.

Oil prices collapsed this year as the coronavirus pandemic slammed global demand and restricted travel across the world.

The EIA said 2020 world oil consumption is expected to plummet by 8.30 million bpd to 92.53 million bpd, a sharper slide than the 8.15 million bpd previously forecast.

However, demand across the world has started to edge higher with countries easing lockdowns and stay-at-home orders.

“Initial data show the global oil market rebalancing faster than EIA previously forecast,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.

“We expect (global oil) inventories to begin drawing in June, as a result of sharper declines in global oil production during June and greater global oil demand than previously expected.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers agreed in April to cut supply by 9.7 million bpd. The group agreed on Saturday to sustain those cuts, equal to about 10% of global supply, through July.

Producers across North America have also slashed output and U.S. rig counts have fallen to a record low.

The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will continue to decline, to 10.6 million bpd in March 2021, then increase slightly through the end of 2021.

U.S. oil demand is expected to rise 1.4 million bpd to 19.46 million in 2021 compared with the EIA’s previous forecast for a rise of 1.45 million bpd.