原油和凝析油供小于求將持續(xù)到2021年

據(jù)油田技術(shù)6月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，雷斯塔能源分析顯示，被迫停產(chǎn)的石油和慷慨的歐佩克+自愿減產(chǎn)措施延長(zhǎng)至7月，不僅將平衡全球原油和凝析油需求，而且規(guī)模足以從2020年6月開(kāi)始造成每月石油供應(yīng)小于需求，并至少持續(xù)到明年年底。

今年早些時(shí)候?qū)е耊TI油價(jià)下跌的供過(guò)于求狀況已經(jīng)成為過(guò)去，只要?dú)W佩克+繼續(xù)嚴(yán)格遵守協(xié)議，石油需求復(fù)蘇軌跡不會(huì)發(fā)生根本改變。上個(gè)石油供應(yīng)過(guò)剩月份似乎是5月份，當(dāng)時(shí)原油和凝析油的日產(chǎn)量比需求高出約610萬(wàn)桶。

現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，6月份全球石油日產(chǎn)量將出現(xiàn)約150萬(wàn)桶的缺口。預(yù)計(jì)將7月擴(kuò)大到460萬(wàn)桶/天，8月將達(dá)到420萬(wàn)桶/天，在2020年剩余時(shí)間缺口略微減少后，將在2021年1月達(dá)到520萬(wàn)桶/天的峰值。盡管供應(yīng)小于需求的情況在那之后會(huì)有所緩解，Rystad估計(jì)這種情況將會(huì)持續(xù)到明年。

Rystad Energy石油市場(chǎng)主管Bjrnar Tonhaugen表示：“通過(guò)迅速收緊即期市場(chǎng)，幫助壓低價(jià)格，并創(chuàng)造一個(gè)有利于迅速緩解石油儲(chǔ)備的供應(yīng)環(huán)境，從而創(chuàng)造一個(gè)小的牛市周期，因?yàn)楣?yīng)相較需求的減少將引發(fā)庫(kù)存大量減少?！?/span>

Rystad Energy估計(jì)，在2020年剩下的幾個(gè)月里，全球原油和凝析油日產(chǎn)量將維持在8000萬(wàn)桶以下。6月原油日產(chǎn)量可能達(dá)到7140萬(wàn)桶，并將逐月增長(zhǎng)，到12月將達(dá)到7840萬(wàn)桶的峰值。

另一方面，2020年6月需求將達(dá)到7290萬(wàn)桶/天，從9月開(kāi)始將超過(guò)8000萬(wàn)桶/天，12月達(dá)到8230萬(wàn)桶/天的月度最高水平。

然而，如果油價(jià)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步上升，將刺激美國(guó)部分停產(chǎn)產(chǎn)能恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。此外，如果鉆探商提前結(jié)束停產(chǎn)期，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)的速度可能會(huì)快于歐佩克+的預(yù)期，從而彌補(bǔ)部分供需逆差。

王佳晶 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: Fresh OPEC+ cuts point to crude and condensate supply deficits through 2021

The forced oil production shutdowns and the extension of the generous OPEC+ voluntary cuts into July will not only balance the Covid-19-hit global crude and condensate demand, but are deep enough to create a monthly deficit starting from June 2020 and continuing uninterrupted until at least the end of next year, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.

The oversupply, which sent WTI oil prices into the negative earlier this year, is a thing of the past as long as OPEC+ compliance stays strong and the oil demand recovery trajectory is not radically altered. The last surplus month appears to have been May, when crude and condensate production exceeded demand by about 6.1 million bpd.

June is now already set for a global production deficit of about 1.5 million bpd. The imbalance is forecast to reach 4.6 million bpd in July, 4.2 million bpd in August and, after being reduced a little during the remainder of 2020, peak at 5.2 million bpd in January 2021. Although the shortfall will ease after that, Rystad Energy estimates that monthly deficits will remain throughout next year.

“We believe OPEC+ is attempting to create a mini-bull-cycle by quickly tightening the prompt market, helping depressed prices and creating a supply environment that will facilitate a rapid relief of oil storages, as deficits will trigger large stock draws,“ said Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bj?rnar Tonhaugen.

Rystad Energy estimates that global crude and condensate production will stay below 80 million bpd for all the remaining months of 2020. Output will likely reach 71.4 million bpd in June and grow monthly to a high of 78.4 million bpd in December.

Demand, on the other hand, is set to reach 72.9 million bpd already in June 2020 and exceed 80 million bpd from September onwards, reaching an annual monthly high of 82.3 million bpd in December.

“However, if the oil price continues its steady ascension, this will spur reactivation of parts of the curtailed US oil production. Also, if frac crews end their holidays early, US volumes may be coming back more quickly than OPEC+ expects, bridging part of the deficit,“ added Tonhaugen.