全球液化天然氣市場受沖擊

據(jù)今日油價(jià)6月8日報(bào)道，原油并不是5月份表現(xiàn)最差的能源大宗商品，這可能會讓一些人感到震驚。從那些新聞標(biāo)題中有關(guān)原油的篇幅來看，大家自然會認(rèn)為，沒有任何一種能源大宗商品的情況會比原油更糟糕。

但LNG卻做到了這一點(diǎn)，而且可能還將面臨更大的壓力。LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格自4月以來一直在下滑，5月底觸至每百萬英國熱量1.85美元的歷史低點(diǎn)。與原油一樣，其主要原因是供需之間的巨大差距。在疫情爆發(fā)前，供需差距已經(jīng)很大，但現(xiàn)在的差距更大。

貨物訂單被取消，尤其是從美國到亞洲和歐洲的貨物訂單。據(jù)計(jì)算，6月和7月至少有20批貨物被取消。需求受到抑制，隨后將流入LNG出口設(shè)施的天然氣流量推至13年低點(diǎn)，這也表明更多痛苦即將到來。

LNG如何在當(dāng)前世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中發(fā)揮作用是很重要的，或許比石油更為重要。據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，在停工期間，LNG的需求比石油需求更具彈性，這可能是因?yàn)長NG用于發(fā)電，其需求比運(yùn)輸部門對燃料的需求更為穩(wěn)定。

如果社交封鎖可能會對這種彈性需求產(chǎn)生影響，以至于分析師們開始談?wù)摎v史最低價(jià)格，并對市場持續(xù)波動(dòng)發(fā)出警告，那么大家所期待的LNG光明前景可能不會以大家所期待形式實(shí)現(xiàn)。

例如，最近發(fā)布的一份LNG行業(yè)展望預(yù)測顯示，美國將在未來五年內(nèi)增加最大份額的LNG出口能力，達(dá)到每年1.451億噸。緊隨其后的是俄羅斯和墨西哥，俄羅斯預(yù)計(jì)將增加3120萬噸LNG產(chǎn)能，墨西哥將每年增加1170萬噸產(chǎn)能。但是，如果價(jià)格繼續(xù)疲軟，所有這些產(chǎn)能的實(shí)現(xiàn)將不能得到保證。

并不是所有目標(biāo)都能實(shí)現(xiàn)，至少在這個(gè)時(shí)間框架內(nèi)不會實(shí)現(xiàn)。例如，在與印度Petronet的初步承運(yùn)協(xié)議到期后，Tellurian在路易斯安那州的Driftwood LNG項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)面臨延期。與此同時(shí)，位于德克薩斯州的另一個(gè)LNG項(xiàng)目Golden Pass的產(chǎn)能也從每年1560萬噸提高到1810萬噸，目前該項(xiàng)目正在建設(shè)中。

在其他地區(qū)，莫桑比克是全球新興的LNG熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)之一，而?？松梨趯ζ銻ovuma LNG項(xiàng)目的最終投資決定已經(jīng)被推遲，可能要等到明年。盡管埃克森美孚已與Rovuma簽訂了天然氣的長期承購協(xié)議，但此次延期卻是一個(gè)事實(shí)。

與此同時(shí)，它在當(dāng)?shù)氐母偁帉κ值肋_(dá)爾即將敲定一項(xiàng)150億美元的融資方案，用于其在莫桑比克的LNG項(xiàng)目。其中一家參與融資的銀行表示，在當(dāng)前市場環(huán)境下，這是一個(gè)了不起的成就，因?yàn)槊總€(gè)人都在為錢發(fā)愁，而銀行在決定把錢給誰時(shí)要謹(jǐn)慎得多。據(jù)國際天然氣聯(lián)盟(International gas Union)的數(shù)據(jù)，這個(gè)價(jià)值200億美元的莫桑比克LNG項(xiàng)目，將使全球LNG總產(chǎn)能每年增加1290萬噸。截至今年年底，全球的總產(chǎn)能為4.4585億噸。

上周天然氣價(jià)格有所改善，這推動(dòng)了美國LNG出口的改善，凸顯了這兩者之間的相互依賴性。但價(jià)格的改善一點(diǎn)兒也不能確定，尤其是如果這個(gè)全球最大的LNG生產(chǎn)商決定像沙特那樣發(fā)動(dòng)一場價(jià)格戰(zhàn)的話。

卡塔爾一直感受到來自澳大利亞和美國的越來越大的壓力，這兩個(gè)國家最近一直在以驚人的速度擴(kuò)大LNG出口能力，奪取一度被視為安全的市場份額。彭博社的Verity Ratcliffe和Anna Shiryaevskaya稱，隨著供應(yīng)持續(xù)過剩，以及更多LNG出口能力的增加，卡塔爾現(xiàn)在有兩個(gè)選擇，一是減少產(chǎn)量以提高價(jià)格；二是提高產(chǎn)量并進(jìn)一步降低價(jià)格以消除競爭。

這種策略此前也奏效過，但存在一個(gè)缺點(diǎn)，那就是可能會造成負(fù)價(jià)格。另一種方向可能是，生產(chǎn)商或會因價(jià)格在市場形成聯(lián)盟，在理論上可以對全球LNG市場產(chǎn)生價(jià)格控制能力。

無論價(jià)格和生產(chǎn)如何變化，能源行業(yè)存在對亞洲市場的過度依賴。迄今為止，亞洲是LNG需求增長的最大單一來源。當(dāng)這種需求增長受到遏制時(shí)，價(jià)格暴跌。然而，LNG的優(yōu)勢在于，長期而言，它的需求將會增長，這就是為什么當(dāng)主要亞洲市場的需求開始復(fù)蘇時(shí)，其價(jià)格也開始小幅上漲。

一些新的LNG項(xiàng)目可能會推遲一到兩年，直到價(jià)格穩(wěn)定下來。LNG行業(yè)已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)競爭極其激烈的領(lǐng)域，可以說有太多的生產(chǎn)商在持續(xù)的低價(jià)環(huán)境下爭奪市場份額。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Global LNG Markets Crushed By Global Pandemic

It may come as a shock to some, but crude oil wasn’t the worst-performing energy commodity in May. Judging by the headline space devoted to it, one would naturally assume no energy commodity could have it worse than crude.

But LNG did, and more pressure may be on the way.

LNG spot prices have been on the slide since April, reaching an all-time low of $1.85 per million British thermal units at the end of May. As with crude oil, the reason was very much the wide gap between supply and demand, already substantial before the coronavirus lockdowns but made even wider than them.

Cargos were canceled, too, notably from the United States to Asia and Europe, with the number calculated at a minimum of 20 cargos for June and July. This dampened demand then pushed gas flows into LNG export facilities to a 13-year-low, suggesting that more pain was on the way.

How LNG is faring in the Covid-19 world is important. It is perhaps more important than how oil is faring. Demand for LNG, according to Reuters reports, was more resilient than oil demand during the lockdowns, possibly because LNG is, among other things, used for electricity generation and that enjoys more stable demand than the transport sector enjoys demand for fuel.

If the coronavirus lockdowns could affect this resilient demand to such an extent as to have analysts talking about all-time price lows and warning about continued volatility, then the bright future of LNG that everyone is anticipating may not materialize in the shape everyone has been expecting.

For instance, a recently released outlook for the LNG industry projects that the United States will add the largest share of new LNG export capacity over the next five years, at 145.1 million tons per year. It will be followed by Russia, which is expected to add 31.2 million tons of LNG capacity, and Mexico, to add 11.7 million tons per year in new capacity. But will all these additions happen if prices remain weak?

Not all of them will happen, at least not in that timeframe. Tellurian, for example, is already facing a delay for its Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana after its preliminary offtake agreement with India’s Petronet expired. At the same time, another LNG project, Golden Pass in Texas, is boosting its nameplate capacity to 18.1 million tons annually from 15.6 million tons. The Golden Pass facility is currently under construction.

Signals are mixed outside the United States as well. Exxon’s final investment decision for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique—one of the emerging hotspots for LNG globally—has been delayed, possibly until next year. The delay is a fact despite Exxon’s securing long-term offtake agreements for gas from Rovuma.

At the same time, its local rival, Total, is about to finalize a $15-billion financing package for its own LNG project in Mozambique. This, according to one of the banks taking part in the financing, is a remarkable achievement in the current market circumstances when everyone is strained for money, and banks are a lot more cautious who they give it to. The $20-billion Mozambique LNG project will add 12.9 million tons of liquefied gas annually to the world’s total production capacity seen at 454.85 million tons annually at the end of this year, up by 24.35 million tons from last year, according to the International Gas Union.

That is, unless prices fall further.

The last week has seen an improvement in prices, and this has driven an improvement in U.S. LNG exports, highlighting the mutual dependence of these two. But the price improvement is not at all certain, especially if the world’s top producer of LNG decides to start a price war, Saudi-style.

Qatar has been feeling increasing pressure from Australia and, lately, the United States, which have been expanding their LNG export capacity at breakneck speeds, grabbing market share once considered secure. Now, with oversupply persistent and still more LNG export capacity additions on the way, Qatar, according to Bloomberg’s Verity Ratcliffe and Anna Shiryaevskaya, has two options: reduce production to boost prices or boost it and sink prices further to eliminate the competition.

The flooding tactic has worked before, but it has a bad habit of hurting the one deploying it along with its targets. Negative prices are one likely outcome of such a war. Yet, another outcome might be a consolidation of producers into a group that could hypothetically yield price-controlling power over the global LNG market.

Wherever prices—and production—goes from here, the coronavirus pandemic seems to be having a marked effect on yet another segment of the energy industry, highlighting the weak spots along with its strong points. Among the former, there is the over-reliance on Asia, which is by far the largest single source of LNG demand growth. When pandemic killed this demand growth, prices plunged. Yet, the strong point of LNG is that demand for it over the long term will grow, which is why when demand began to recover in the key Asian markets, prices also began to inch up.

It is possible that some new LNG projects will be delayed by a year or two until prices stabilize. If they stabilize. The LNG industry has become an extremely competitive place, with arguably too many producers fighting for market share in a persistent low-price environment. ?