北美液化天然氣行業(yè)仍在掙扎

據(jù)6月9日Trade Arabia消息：由于經(jīng)濟放緩、需求減少，導致液化天然氣長期供應合同被取消，進口國延遲交貨。以至于液化能力利用率降低，主要體現(xiàn)在美國--全球超冷氣體的主要供應商之一。此外，全球數(shù)據(jù)分析公司GlobalData表示，天然氣價格下跌加劇了該地區(qū)液化天然氣供應商和上游天然氣生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的危機。

GlobalData石油和天然氣分析師艾哈邁德稱:“由于油價大幅下跌，以石油為索引的長期液化天然氣合約與現(xiàn)貨合約之間的價差已大幅縮小。因此，液化天然氣生產(chǎn)商可能難以利用較高價值的長期合同來降低現(xiàn)貨價格，從而保持收入增長。由于不確定性仍然很大，北美的幾家公司可能會重新考慮在即將到來的數(shù)十億美元天然氣項目上的支出，并推遲最終投資決定。

鑒于目前市場狀況不平衡，荷蘭皇家殼牌公司退出了由能源轉(zhuǎn)讓公司擁有和運營的查爾斯湖項目。如果沒有潛在的投資者來取代殼牌，項目的最終投資決定可能會被推遲，項目啟動年份或?qū)⑼七t兩年左右，直到2027年。

艾哈邁德總結(jié)道:“盡管當前危機對北美液化天然氣行業(yè)的短期影響可能會導致液化天然氣生產(chǎn)受限或新投資的不確定性，但長期影響卻可能是供應過剩，這會使北美生產(chǎn)商難以保持成本競爭力。”

馮娟 摘譯自 Trade Arabia

原文如下：

North American LNG sector continues to struggle

Reduced demand due to economic slowdown, coupled with the Covid-19 outbreak, has led to cancellations of long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts and cargo deferments by importing counties.

This has led to low utilisation of liquefaction capacity, primarily in the US - one of the key suppliers of the super-chilled gas globally. Furthermore, the fall in gas prices deepens the crisis for LNG suppliers and upstream gas producing companies in the region, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Haseeb Ahmed, Oil and Gas analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Due to a sharp fall in in oil prices, spreads between oil-indexed long-term LNG contracts and spot contracts have reduced considerably. As a result, LNG producers might struggle to leverage higher value long-term contracts for weaker spot-prices that can keep their revenues up. As uncertainty still looms large, several companies in North America may rethink their spends on upcoming multibillion-dollar gas projects and delay final investment decisions (FIDs).”

Failing to secure a long-term buyer commitment for its Driftwood project due to the current crisis, Tellurian Investments is likely to delay its FID by nearly two years. This is likely to push the project timeline, which was initially expected to go online in 2023, by two years. Similar is the case with Pieridae Energy, which is delaying its FID on the Goldboro project from Q3 2020 to Q2 2021 – likely to push the start of the project by a year to 2025.

In view of current market conditions and COVID-19 pandemic, Royal Dutch Shell has pulled out of the Lake Charles project, owned and operated by Energy Transfer. In the absence of a potential investor to replace Shell, the FID of the project may get delayed and the project start year is likely to be pushed back by around two years to 2027.

Ahmed concludes: “While the short-term impact of the current crisis on North American LNG sector may result in limiting LNG production or uncertainty over new investments, the long-term impact can be supply overhang that can make it difficult for North American producers to remain cost competitive.”