歐佩克同意延長創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議

據(jù)今日油價(jià)6月6日報(bào)道，歐佩克及其合作伙伴于6月6日下午結(jié)束了會議，宣布將延長目前的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議。

歐佩克現(xiàn)任主席、阿爾及利亞能源部長穆罕默德?阿爾卡布(Mohamed Arkab)總結(jié)了歐佩克的觀點(diǎn)，稱:“盡管迄今取得了進(jìn)展，但我們不能坐以待斃。”

最近幾天，沙特與其他歐佩克成員國以及俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦和阿塞拜疆等非歐佩克國家進(jìn)行了談判，決定將目前每天970萬桶的減產(chǎn)規(guī)模至少再延長一個(gè)月。

參與創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄減產(chǎn)的大多數(shù)國家都愿意繼續(xù)當(dāng)前的協(xié)議，但尼日利亞、哈薩克斯坦等國的履約不力引起了歐佩克其他成員國的不滿，不過，其中一些國家甚至比4月份商定的減產(chǎn)幅度更大。

在上周六的線上會議上，歐佩克同意，那些在5月和6月未能完全達(dá)標(biāo)的國家，將必須在7月、8月和9月作出補(bǔ)償性減產(chǎn)。

隨著全球需求開始復(fù)蘇，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)和全球范圍內(nèi)的油井關(guān)閉，緩解了巨大的供應(yīng)過剩危機(jī)，5月份油價(jià)實(shí)際上翻了一番。

雖然歐佩克+協(xié)議的延長無疑會對市場產(chǎn)生利好影響，但油價(jià)周一不太可能大幅上漲，因?yàn)闅W佩克+的消息已經(jīng)在很大程度上反映在價(jià)格中了。

油價(jià)要想全面復(fù)蘇，就必須恢復(fù)全球需求，減少原油庫存，這兩項(xiàng)工作可能都需要長達(dá)兩年的時(shí)間。Pioneer的斯科特謝菲爾德（Scott Sheffield）表示，隨著許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體“重新開放”，需求迅速反彈至每天9400萬至9500萬桶。值得注意的是，需求反彈將停滯，他表示，需求在2022年甚至2023年之前都不會達(dá)到之前的水平。

就目前而言，沙特阿美可能是推動油價(jià)上漲的下一個(gè)催化劑，該公司有望在周一發(fā)布官方銷售價(jià)格（OSPs），從而為6月份的油價(jià)上漲做好鋪墊。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Agrees On Extending Record Output Cuts

OPEC and its partners concluded their meeting on Saturday afternoon, announcing that it would extend its current production cut deal.

Algeria’s Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab, OPEC’s current President summed up the group’s sentiment by saying that "Despite the progress achieved to date, we cannot afford to rest on our laurels,''.

The last couple of days, the cartel’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia negotiated with other OPEC members and some non-OPEC countries including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to extend the current 9.7 million bpd output cuts for at least another month.

Most countries partaking in the record production cuts were willing to continue the current deal, but poor compliance from countries like Nigeria and Kazakhstan has caused discontent among other OPEC members, some of which have even made deeper cuts than agreed on in April.

During the virtual meeting on Saturday, the cartel agreed that the countries that were unable to reach full conformity in May and June will have to compensate for this in July, August and September.

Oil prices effectively doubled during the month of May as global demand started to recover and record output cuts and worldwide well shut-ins decreased the monster glut.

While the OPEC+ deal extension undoubtedly will have a bullish effect on markets, prices aren’t likely to rip much higher on Monday as the OPEC+ news has largely been priced in already.

For oil prices to make a full recovery, global demand will have to recover and crude inventories have to be drawn down, both of which will likely take up to two years. Pioneer’s Scott Sheffield said that the quick rebound of demand to around 94-95 mb/d following the “reopening” of so many economies will give way to stagnation, saying that demand won’t reach pre-pandemic levels until 2022 or even 2023.

For now, the next bullish catalyst for oil could come from Saudi Aramco, which could set the trend for higher oil prices in June as it is expected to release its OSPs (official selling prices) on Monday.