歐佩克內(nèi)部尚未達(dá)成長(zhǎng)期減產(chǎn)協(xié)議 油價(jià)下跌

據(jù)6月4日Rigzone報(bào)道，油價(jià)從三個(gè)月高位回落，因歐佩克+各國(guó)在長(zhǎng)期減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃方面存在分歧，且美國(guó)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令市場(chǎng)對(duì)需求復(fù)蘇力度產(chǎn)生懷疑。

紐約期貨價(jià)格下跌約2%，至每桶37美元以下，此前曾收于3月6日以來最高點(diǎn)。知情人士表示，沙特和俄羅斯已達(dá)成一項(xiàng)初步協(xié)議，將產(chǎn)量限制期限再延長(zhǎng)一個(gè)月，但前提是其他成員國(guó)在未來幾個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，以彌補(bǔ)未能達(dá)到減產(chǎn)協(xié)議規(guī)定份額。

美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)柴油需求上周降至21年低點(diǎn)，汽油庫(kù)存激增。這些數(shù)據(jù)表明，這個(gè)全球最大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)燃油消耗量并沒有像此前預(yù)期那樣迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇。

盡管油價(jià)自4月中旬以來迅速反彈，但在幾次不利因素影響下，反彈勢(shì)頭屢屢受挫。截至倫敦時(shí)間早上7點(diǎn)36分，紐約商品交易所7月份交割A(yù)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格下跌1.7%，至每桶36.65美元，周三曾上漲1.3%。歐洲期貨交易所(ICE Futures Europe exchAnge) 8月份交割的布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格下跌1%，至39.39美元/桶，而在前一個(gè)交易日，布倫特原油交易價(jià)格近三個(gè)月來首次超過40美元/桶。

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)銀行（INGAAnk NV）大宗商品策略主管沃倫?帕特森（WArren PAtterson）表示：“歐佩克+所做決定將是未來一周價(jià)格走勢(shì)關(guān)鍵，產(chǎn)量限制協(xié)議或會(huì)延長(zhǎng)將為油價(jià)提供有限上行空間。不過，油價(jià)上漲與煉油利潤(rùn)率疲弱之間存在脫節(jié)，這表明至少在近期內(nèi)，油價(jià)上漲已經(jīng)有點(diǎn)超前?！?/span>

沙特與俄羅斯一致認(rèn)為，7月份，將繼續(xù)在當(dāng)前水平上削減產(chǎn)量。下一次會(huì)議上定于6月9日至10日召開，若不能得到伊拉克等國(guó)家做出承諾，歐佩克+在2020年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)A石油減產(chǎn)規(guī)模將放寬至770萬桶/天。

歐佩克+各國(guó)之間分歧正達(dá)到頂峰，隨著油價(jià)上漲已經(jīng)刺激了一些美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，美國(guó)最大頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商EOG Resources Inc.和二疊紀(jì)鉆井公司PArsley Energy Inc.準(zhǔn)備在關(guān)閉生產(chǎn)數(shù)周后提高產(chǎn)量。

美國(guó)能源信息署數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周美國(guó)柴油供應(yīng)下降17%，至每日272萬桶，汽油庫(kù)存增加280萬桶，增幅高于預(yù)期。原油整體庫(kù)存減少210萬桶，庫(kù)欣庫(kù)存連續(xù)第四周下降。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Down on OPEC+ Discord and US Demand Data

Oil retreated from a three-month high as OPEC+ unity was threatened by a long-running feud over complying with production cutbacks, while U.S. data cast doubt on the strength of the demand recovery.

Futures in New York fell around 2% to below $37 a barrel after closing at the highest since March 6. Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a preliminary deal to extend output curbs for an extra month, but it’s conditional on other members making deeper cuts in the months ahead to make up for past non-compliance, people familiar with the matter said. The two leading producers have lost their patience with the errant behavior of the next-biggest, Iraq.

Meanwhile in the U.S., diesel demand fell to a 21-year low last week and gasoline stockpiles swelled, according to Energy Information Administration data. The figures suggest that fuel consumption in the world’s largest oil consumer isn’t recovering as quickly as previously anticipated.

While oil prices have rebounded rapidly since mid-April, the rally is faltering amid several headwinds. The White House is suspending passenger flights from Chinese airlines as relations between the world’s two biggest economies continue to worsen, while civil unrest across the U.S. is complicating the economic recovery from the virus and risking a second wave of infections.

West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 1.7% to $36.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:36 a.m. in London after rising 1.3% on Wednesday. Brent for August settlement declined 1% to $39.39 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after trading above $40 for the first time in almost three months in the previous session.

“The OPEC+ decision will be key for price direction over the next week, with a potential extension providing some limited upside,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV. However, there’s a disconnect between the rise in oil prices and weak refining margins, suggesting the rally has gotten a bit ahead of itself at least in the near term, he said.

Riyadh and Moscow are aligned on continuing cuts at the current level for an extra month beyond July 1. But if they don’t receive assurances from Iraq and the other laggards at their next meeting -- scheduled for June 9-10 -- the group’s daily supply curbs will ease to 7.7 million barrels for the rest of 2020.

The OPEC+ disagreements are coming to a head as higher prices have already spurred some U.S. producers to bring wells back online. EOG Resources Inc., America’s largest shale-focused producer, and Permian driller Parsley Energy Inc. are preparing to ramp up output just weeks after turning off the taps.

Diesel supplied in the U.S. tumbled 17% to 2.72 million barrels a day last week, according to the EIA, while gasoline inventories rose by a higher-than forecast 2.8 million barrels. Overall crude stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels and inventories at the storage hub at Cushing declined for a fourth week.