全球石油需求預(yù)計將下降11.5％

據(jù)鉆機地帶6月1日消息稱，根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的最新需求預(yù)測，到2020年，全球石油需求將同比下降11.5％，即每天減少1140萬桶。

雷斯塔指出，預(yù)計今年石油總需求將從去年的約9950萬桶/天降至8810萬桶/天。5月需求預(yù)計將下降20.5%至7850萬桶/天，6月需求將觸及8400萬桶/天。

雷斯塔認(rèn)為，全球道路燃料總需求將同比下降9.9%，即下降470萬桶/天，至4270萬桶/天。航空燃油需求預(yù)計將同比下降近40.8%，即290萬桶/天，至430萬桶/天。雷斯塔預(yù)測，到2020年，美國的石油總需求將下降11.8%，即240萬桶/天，至1810萬桶/天，歐洲的石油總需求將下降15.6%，即220萬桶/天，至1200萬桶/天。

展望2021年，雷斯塔預(yù)計石油總需求將反彈至9630萬桶/天。明年道路燃料的平均需求預(yù)計為4600萬桶/天，航空燃料的平均需求預(yù)計為620萬桶/天。雷斯塔預(yù)計，到2021年，美國石油總需求平均為每日1940萬桶，歐洲石油總需求平均為每日1320萬桶。

雷斯塔先前的需求預(yù)測顯示，2020年石油需求將減少10.8%，即每日減少1070萬桶。道路燃料需求預(yù)計同比下降10.8%，即510萬桶/天;航空燃料需求預(yù)計同比下降近33.6%，即240萬桶/天。

曹海斌 摘譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Oil Demand Expected to Fall 11.5 Percent

Global oil demand will decrease by 11.5 percent, or 11.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year on year in 2020, according to Rystad Energy’s latest demand forecast.

Total oil demand is projected to fall to 88.1MMbpd this year from approximately 99.5MMbpd last year, Rystad outlined. May demand is expected to fall by 20.5 percent to 78.5MMbpd and June demand is forecasted to hit 84MMbpd.

Rystad believes total global demand for road fuels will fall by 9.9 percent, or 4.7 MMbpd, year on year to 42.7MMbpd. Jet fuel demand is anticipated to decline by almost 40.8 percent, or 2.9MMbpd, year on year to 4.3MMbpd. Rystad forecasts that in 2020, total oil demand in the United States will fall 11.8 percent, or 2.4MMbpd, to 18.1MMbpd and that total oil demand in Europe will drop by 15.6 percent, or 2.2MMbpd, to 12MMbpd.

Looking ahead to 2021, Rystad expects total oil demand to rebound to 96.3MMbpd. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46MMbpd and jet fuel demand is expected to average 6.2MMbpd next year. Rystad anticipates total oil demand in the U.S. to average 19.4MMbpd and total oil demand in Europe to average 13.2MMbpd in 2021.

Rystad’s previous demand forecast saw oil demand falling by 10.8 percent, or 10.7MMbpd, in 2020. Road fuel demand was anticipated to fall by 10.8 percent, or 5.1MMbpd, year on year and jet fuel demand was projected to drop by almost 33.6 percent, or 2.4Mmbpd, year on year.