全球油氣價(jià)格仍面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

據(jù)彭博社6月2日報(bào)道，原油和天然氣市場正在經(jīng)歷熊市，熊市隨股市一起反彈，恢復(fù)下跌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(West Texas Intermediate)可能會(huì)接近每桶40美元，但更有可能被吸引到接近20美元/桶的水平，這是期貨歷史上交易價(jià)格范圍波動(dòng)最廣的一次。天然氣價(jià)格也出現(xiàn)了類似的上漲，但像原油一樣供過于求，而且面臨著自大蕭條以來最嚴(yán)重的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，預(yù)計(jì)天然氣價(jià)格將保持在每百萬英熱2美元以下。

能源價(jià)格面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是股市下跌，除非出現(xiàn)的V型全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇局面。在疫情之前，能源市場就存在不利因素，雖然近期油價(jià)有所反彈，但更傾向于價(jià)格會(huì)走低。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

WTI crude oil toward $20, natural gas below $2 as economy slows

This analysis is by Bloomberg.

Crude oil and natural gas are enduring bear markets that have bounced along with equities and are at elevated risk of resuming declines, in our view. West Texas Intermediate may fill the gap up toward $40 a barrel but is more likely to gravitate closer to about $20, its most widely traded price in futures history. Natural gas has shown a similar surge, but oversupplied like crude and facing the worst global recession since the Great Depression, we expect prices to hold below $2 per million BTUs.

The biggest risk to energy prices is a decline in the stock market, which also looks high, except in the unlikely scenario of a V-shaped global economic recovery. Pre-existing unfavorable conditions for energy before the coronavirus, and the recent price bounce, keeps our bias tilted toward lower prices.