全球航煤需求將需要數(shù)年時間才能恢復(fù)

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2020年5月19日休斯頓報(bào)道，疫情席卷了整個航空業(yè)，顛覆了對未來幾年的機(jī)隊(duì)、航線和乘客人數(shù)的預(yù)測。在這個旅行受限、封國鎖城、社交疏遠(yuǎn)和只在網(wǎng)上舉行商務(wù)會議的不尋常時期，商業(yè)航空旅行和旅游業(yè)是受打擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)。

航空公司和飛機(jī)制造商將面臨數(shù)年的虧損和成本削減，直到航空旅行數(shù)量恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的水平。在航空業(yè)明顯低迷的這幾年里，航空煤油的需求預(yù)計(jì)將是需求恢復(fù)到2019年水平的最后一種石油產(chǎn)品。

分析人士說，雖然道路交通的石油需求已經(jīng)顯示出復(fù)蘇的跡象，因?yàn)槿藗兏矚g開車上下班，而不是乘坐公共交通工具，但對航空煤油的需求可能需要更長的時間，可能需要數(shù)年時間才能恢復(fù)。

航空業(yè)已發(fā)生重大變化

《福布斯》資深撰稿人泰德·里德說，疫情已經(jīng)給商業(yè)運(yùn)作方式帶來了重大變化。

自從各國采取措施限制入境旅行以平抑感染曲線以來，航空公司的客流量急劇下降。例如，根據(jù)美國運(yùn)輸安全管理局(TSA)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，在剛剛過去的這個周日，美國機(jī)場安檢處的總旅客吞吐量僅為25.3807萬人，而去年同一天通過安檢的旅客吞吐量為262.0276萬人。換句話說，美國5月中旬的乘機(jī)人數(shù)還不到去年美國機(jī)場正常日客流量的10%。

當(dāng)然，航空公司感到了壓力，而飛機(jī)制造商同樣也感到了壓力。盡管美國航空公司有義務(wù)至少在9月底前不裁員，以此作為獲得美國補(bǔ)貼的條件，但他們警告稱，裁員將在9月底之后發(fā)生。

例如，達(dá)美航空公司首席執(zhí)行官艾德?巴斯蒂安在4月份舉行的公司第一季度財(cái)報(bào)電話會議上表示，該公司有3.7萬名員工(占員工總數(shù)的三分之一以上)選擇了自愿無薪休假，休假時間從30天到一年不等。

巴斯蒂安補(bǔ)充道，達(dá)美航空公司3月每日現(xiàn)金消耗為1億美元，預(yù)計(jì)5月每日現(xiàn)金消耗為5000萬美元。

在美國以外的地區(qū)，航空公司已經(jīng)開始裁員。英國航空公司的所有者IAG在5月初曾警告稱，該公司可能會裁員多達(dá)1.2萬名員工。歐洲最大的廉價航空公司瑞安航空公司正在協(xié)商裁員3000人，主要是飛行員和空乘人員。瑞安航空公司預(yù)計(jì)，今年的載客量將達(dá)到最初預(yù)期的一半。據(jù)彭博新聞社報(bào)道，阿聯(lián)酋航空公司正在考慮裁員3萬人。

各種規(guī)模的航空公司現(xiàn)在都必須弄清楚，除了今年黯淡的前景外，如何在航班上保持社交距離和遮蓋面部。

飛機(jī)制造商也深受其害

乘客人數(shù)大幅減少，復(fù)蘇時間表高度不確定，影響了航空公司的機(jī)隊(duì)輪換、退休和新機(jī)購買，影響了波音、空客和通用航空等飛機(jī)制造商和供應(yīng)商，這些公司也在裁員。

波音公司已經(jīng)采取行動，通過自愿裁員(VLO)、自然離職和必要的非自愿裁員相結(jié)合，將員工數(shù)量減少大約10- 15%。這意味著波音將裁員1.5 - 1.6萬人，“因疫情也對我們的業(yè)務(wù)造成了沉重打擊，”波音公司總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩在4月底致員工的信中如是說。

復(fù)蘇需要數(shù)年時間，威脅航煤需求

管理人士和分析師表示，與公路運(yùn)輸業(yè)不同，航空運(yùn)輸業(yè)將在未來數(shù)年受到疫情的沖擊。因此，航空煤油需求——受經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退打擊最嚴(yán)重的燃料——將以最慢的速度恢復(fù)。

達(dá)美航空公司的巴斯蒂安在公司財(cái)報(bào)電話會議上表示，“鑒于疫情大流行的綜合影響以及相關(guān)金融因素對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，我們認(rèn)為可能需要長達(dá)3年的時間才能看到全球航煤需求的持續(xù)復(fù)蘇?！?/span>

高盛公司表示，盡管全球石油需求將隨著v型復(fù)蘇而反彈，但航空煤油需求將繼續(xù)低迷至少兩年，原因是商務(wù)旅行大幅減少。

EIA的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在5月8日結(jié)束的那周里，美國的汽油平均日需求量為739.8萬桶，仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于去年同期的914.8萬桶，但比兩周前的586萬桶/天有了明顯改善,。

另一方面，雷斯塔能源公司的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年全球航空煤油需求將減少33.6%，或至少減少240萬桶/天，而去年的需求為720萬桶/天。明年，航空煤油需求將無法回到危機(jī)前的水平，預(yù)計(jì)平均為每天690萬桶。

據(jù)伍德麥肯茲稱，航空煤油需求最早也要到2022年才能恢復(fù)到2019年的水平。

旅行限制和禁飛會影響對航空業(yè)未來的短期預(yù)測，但生活方式和旅行行為的持續(xù)改變可能會永遠(yuǎn)顛覆航空旅行業(yè)務(wù)及其對航空煤油的需求。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Jet Fuel Demand Will Take Years To Recover

The coronavirus pandemic swept across the airline industry, upending fleet, route, and passenger number predictions for years to come. Commercial air travel, alongside tourism, is the worst-hit business in these unusual times of restricted travel, lockdowns, social distancing, and online-only business conferences.

Airlines and aircraft manufacturers face a few years of losses and cost cuts before air travel numbers return to pre-crisis levels. In these several years of a marked downturn for the industry, demand for jet fuel is expected to be the last oil product to see demand recover to levels from 2019.

While oil demand for road transportation already shows signs of recovery as people prefer commuting with their own cars rather than using public transport, demand for jet fuel will probably take much longer—possibly years—to recover, analysts say.

The Airline Business Has Already Changed

The COVID-19 pandemic has already brought significant changes to the way the business operates, according to Forbes Senior Contributor Ted Reed.

Passenger traffic on airlines has dropped off a cliff since countries moved to restrict inbound travel in an effort to flatten the curve of infections. In the United States, for example, total traveler throughput at security was just 253,807 this past Sunday, compared to 2,620,276 passengers who cleared security at airports on the same day last year, according to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). In other words, the passenger numbers in mid-May were less than 10 percent of the typical day at U.S. airports last year.

The airlines, of course, are feeling the pinch, and so are aircraft manufacturers. While U.S. airlines have an obligation not to lay off staff at least until end-September as a condition to receive U.S. grants, they are warning that layoffs will be coming after that.

“October 1st is likely to emerge as one of the darkest days in history for airline labor,” JPMorgan Chase said earlier this month, as carried by Reuters.

At Delta Air Lines, for example, 37,000 employees, more than one-third of the workforce, have elected to take voluntary unpaid leaves ranging from 30 days to one year, CEO Ed Bastian said on the earnings call in April.

Delta was burning cash at a rate of $100 million per day in March, and expected that cash-burn rate at $50 million a day in May, Bastian added.

Outside the United States, airlines are already taking an ax to payroll numbers. IAG, the owner of British Airways, warned in early May that it is likely that there would be redundancies of up to 12,000 British Airways’ employees. Europe’s biggest budget carrier, Ryanair, is negotiating 3,000 job cuts, mainly pilots and cabin crew, and expects to carry this year half the number of passengers compared to initial expectations. Emirates is reportedly weighing 30,000 job cuts, according to Bloomberg News.

Airlines of all sizes now have to figure out how social distancing and face-coverings on flights would work apart from the gloomy outlooks for this year.

Aircraft Manufacturers Also Suffer

Significantly reduced passenger numbers and a highly uncertain recovery timeline impacts airlines’ fleet rotation, retirement, and new buys, affecting manufacturers and suppliers such as Boeing, Airbus, and GE Aviation, which are also cutting jobs.

Boeing has taken action to lower employee numbers by around 10-15 percent through a combination of voluntary layoffs (VLO), natural turnover, and involuntary layoffs as necessary. This means that Boeing will cut 15,000-16,000 jobs, as “the pandemic is also delivering a body blow to our business,” Boeing President and CEO Dave Calhoun said in a letter to employees at the end of April.

Recovery To Take Years, Threatening Jet Fuel Demand

Unlike in road transportation, where recovery is gaining momentum with eased lockdowns and more U.S. states and major economies opening up, airline transportation will suffer for years to come, executives and analysts say. As a consequence, jet fuel demand—the fuel worst hit by the slump—will recover at the slowest rate.

“Given the combined effects of the pandemic and associated financial impact on the global economy, we believe that it could be up to three years before we see a sustainable recovery,” Delta’s Bastian said on the earnings call.

While global oil demand is set to rebound with a V-shaped recovery, demand for jet fuel will continue to languish for at least another two years, cut by significantly reduced business travel, Goldman Sachs says.

Gasoline demand in the U.S. stood at 7.398 million bpd for the week to May 8, and although this was still below the 9.148-million bpd demand for the same week last year, the number was a clear improvement from the 5.86-million-bpd demand just two weeks prior, EIA data shows.

Global jet fuel demand, on the other hand, will drop by 33.6 percent this year, or by at least 2.4 million bpd from last year’s demand of 7.2 million bpd, according to Rystad Energy. Next year, jet fuel demand will not have returned to the pre-crisis levels and is expected to average 6.9 million bpd.

According to Wood Mackenzie, jet fuel demand is not expected to regain the 2019 level until 2022 at the earliest.

Travel restrictions and lockdowns impact near-term projections for the airline industry's future, but a lasting change in lifestyles and travel behavior could upend the air travel business and its demand for fuel forever.