美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量將在11月觸底

據(jù)今日油價(jià)5月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，當(dāng)前，石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商削減預(yù)算，減少鉆探活動(dòng)。在美國(guó)，隨著現(xiàn)有油田的產(chǎn)量自然下降，鉆探活動(dòng)會(huì)影響未來(lái)的油氣產(chǎn)量。運(yùn)營(yíng)商還關(guān)閉了一些生產(chǎn)油田，導(dǎo)致相關(guān)的天然氣產(chǎn)量暫停。Rystad Energy估計(jì)，美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量(除墨西哥灣外的48個(gè)州)將在11月觸底，即825億立方英尺/天，然后在2021年開(kāi)始逐漸緩慢復(fù)蘇。

這是油田逐漸恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，以及當(dāng)前可視減產(chǎn)情況的假設(shè)，預(yù)計(jì)天然氣產(chǎn)量將逐月下降，直到11月。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，天然氣產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)從2019年11月的約940億立方英尺/天降至2020年4月的889億立方英尺/天。

與此同時(shí)，5月份的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)為860億立方英尺/天。在11月的預(yù)測(cè)低值之后，預(yù)期的緩慢復(fù)蘇，會(huì)在2021年年中增加約10億立方英尺/天，在2021年年底還會(huì)再增加10億立方英尺/天。

Rystad Energy頁(yè)巖研究主管阿特姆?阿布拉莫夫(Artem Abramov)表示：“隨著許多以石油業(yè)務(wù)為核心的生產(chǎn)商實(shí)施大規(guī)模減產(chǎn)，人們可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，這種損失也將很快開(kāi)始影響相關(guān)的天然氣產(chǎn)量。不過(guò)，天然氣產(chǎn)量的下降速度，并不像市場(chǎng)迄今所預(yù)期的那么快，”

截至11月的115億立方英尺/天的同比降幅中，大部分將是自然下降所致。由于關(guān)井縮減的總降幅僅為17億立方英尺/天。

這一預(yù)測(cè)是基于WTI油價(jià)會(huì)在2021年上半年逐漸回升至每桶35美元，而Henry Hub天然氣價(jià)格會(huì)在2021年上半年逐漸回升至每百萬(wàn)英熱2.5美元。要想快速恢復(fù)，WTI價(jià)格必須穩(wěn)定在每桶30美元至35美元之間。

隨著液化天然氣和國(guó)內(nèi)需求的全面復(fù)蘇，預(yù)計(jì)2021年供應(yīng)將至少比市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的低60-90億立方英尺/天。預(yù)期Henry Hub的價(jià)格將在每百萬(wàn)英熱2.5 - 3.0美元之間，以觸發(fā)天然氣盆地的復(fù)蘇，因此完全有能力平衡即將到來(lái)的供應(yīng)缺口。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

U.S. Gas Output To Hit Rock Bottom In November

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced oil and gas producers to slash budgets and reduce drilling activity, which in the US always affects future hydrocarbon output as existing fields naturally decline. Operators also shut some producing oil fields, halting in turn their associated gas output. Rystad Energy estimates that US gas production (Lower 48 States excl. Gulf of Mexico) will reach its lowest point in November, at 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) before a gradual slow recovery begins in 2021.

We expect that gas production will decline every single month until November in our base-case scenario. This assumes a gradual reactivation of producing fields and is based on what curtailments we realistically see happening, rather than taking a basin-wide analogical approach. To put the decline into context: Gas production has already dropped from about 94 Bcfd in November 2019 to 88.9 Bcfd in April 2020.

Meanwhile, May’s output is expected at 86 Bcfd. After the forecasted November low, the slow recovery that we anticipate is only expected to add around 1 Bcfd by mid-2021 and 1 Bcfd more by the end of that year.

“As many oil-focused producers implement significant production curtailments, one might think that this loss will also start to affect associated gas production soon. Still, associated gas production is not declining as quickly as the market had hoped for so far,“ says Rystad Energy’s Head of Shale Research Artem Abramov.

Most of the 11.5 Bcfd year-on-year output reduction till November will occur due to natural decline. Only about 1.7 Bcfd from the total decline will happen due to shut-in curtailments.

This outlook is based on a gradual recovery of the WTI oil price towards $35 per barrel and the Henry Hub gas price towards $2.5 per MMBtu in 1H21. The production outlook is based on our analysis of company guidance, base decline assessment and the most representative type of curves. Rapid reactivation requires stable WTI prices in the range of $30 to $35 per barrel already in 3Q20.

With a full recovery in LNG and domestic demand, we expect that we will enter 2021 with supply at least 6 Bcfd to 9 Bcfd lower than what the market would like to absorb next year. We believe Henry Hub prices will be in the $2.5 to $3.0 per MMBtu range to trigger the recovery in gas basins, so they are well-positioned to balance the upcoming supply deficit.