明年國(guó)際市場(chǎng)天然氣價(jià)格可能會(huì)翻番

據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2020年5月15日休斯頓報(bào)道，今年4月份，美國(guó)的頁(yè)巖油鉆井企業(yè)的命運(yùn)發(fā)生了明顯逆轉(zhuǎn)。4月20日，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油5月份交貨價(jià)格一度跌至每桶- 40.32美元，之后又反彈至零美元以上。這是有史以來(lái)第一次交易商們花錢(qián)購(gòu)買(mǎi)原油。供應(yīng)過(guò)剩加上對(duì)俄克拉荷馬州庫(kù)欣有限儲(chǔ)存空間的擔(dān)憂(yōu)正在擠壓著美國(guó)的頁(yè)巖行業(yè)。自2009年12月以來(lái)沒(méi)有看到的創(chuàng)歷史新低的天然氣價(jià)格從另外一方面反映了美國(guó)石油的現(xiàn)狀，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)40%的天然氣產(chǎn)量是來(lái)自石油生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中產(chǎn)生的伴生氣。

當(dāng)前天然氣價(jià)格偏低的原因

即使在目前的COVID-19危機(jī)之前，天然氣價(jià)格在2019年12月也非常低，僅為每百萬(wàn)英熱單位2.33美元，這是因?yàn)樘烊粴夤?yīng)因暖冬，美國(guó)、中國(guó)和世界其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩以及美國(guó)，非洲和澳大利亞新出口項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)過(guò)剩大大超過(guò)了需求。COVID-19疫情的爆發(fā)和傳播使情況變得更加糟糕。EBW分析集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官安迪·魏斯曼說(shuō)：“美國(guó)電力需求由于與冠狀病毒疫情相關(guān)的遏制措施正開(kāi)始迅速下降。而且，由于電力消耗現(xiàn)在是美國(guó)天然氣使用的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，天然氣在美國(guó)的需求已經(jīng)下降。

井運(yùn)營(yíng)商正在減少鉆井活動(dòng)

行業(yè)觀察人士表示，未來(lái)一年，原油價(jià)格看上去將繼續(xù)低迷。相比之下，一些分析師預(yù)計(jì)天然氣價(jià)格將在今年秋季前上漲作為對(duì)低油價(jià)的回應(yīng)，越來(lái)越多的勘探和生產(chǎn)（E&P）公司正在被迫削減鉆井活動(dòng)，并把鉆井預(yù)算減少30%至50%。根據(jù)挪威雷斯塔能源公司今年4月公布的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，這已經(jīng)反映在新的水力壓裂井?dāng)?shù)量的減少上，從今年1月的780口減少到了4月的162口。美國(guó)政府自己的估計(jì)數(shù)顯示，到明年前，原油日產(chǎn)量將從1320萬(wàn)桶的峰值下降66萬(wàn)桶。由于原油產(chǎn)量下降，天然氣產(chǎn)量也會(huì)下降，而天然氣價(jià)格將會(huì)上漲。

天然氣價(jià)格可能翻番

美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA) 4月份的報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，由于冬季取暖需求增加，工業(yè)活動(dòng)復(fù)蘇，今年秋季天然氣價(jià)格將上漲。在4月初，天然氣價(jià)格僅為1.64美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位(MMBtu)，這是自2009年12月以來(lái)的最低價(jià)格。高盛公司分析師薩曼塔?達(dá)特預(yù)計(jì)，到2020-2021年冬季前，天然氣價(jià)格將躍升至3.5美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，到2021年夏季前將達(dá)到3.25美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。美國(guó)銀行對(duì)此表示贊同，但認(rèn)為明年的天然氣價(jià)格漲幅僅為每百萬(wàn)英熱單位2.45美元。

氣價(jià)上漲的影響

天然氣價(jià)格上漲的影響可能會(huì)阻止德克薩斯州和美國(guó)中西部地區(qū)的數(shù)百家負(fù)債累累的小型獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)商破產(chǎn)或關(guān)井，這些生產(chǎn)商占83%的石油產(chǎn)量和90%的天然氣產(chǎn)量。

天然氣價(jià)格回升可能會(huì)激勵(lì)勘探和生產(chǎn)公司減少天然氣放空燃燒和排放，并將這種價(jià)值更高的商品出售給當(dāng)?shù)刭I(mǎi)家。即將竣工的幾條天然氣外輸管道也將向墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣加工廠和急需天然氣的墨西哥開(kāi)放。正如一位行業(yè)觀察人士所言，在這個(gè)節(jié)氣，頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商應(yīng)該把天然氣作為未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的主要收入來(lái)源以及把石油作為副產(chǎn)品。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Natural Gas Prices Could Double Next Year|

April has seen a marked reversal of fortunes for shale oil drillers in the United States. The price for May deliveries of West Texas Intermediate crude briefly dropped to minus $40.32 per barrel on 20 April,[i] before rebounding to over zero. For the first time ever, traders were paying to have crude taken off their hands. The supply glut, combined with fears of limited storage space in Cushing, Oklahoma running out, is crushing the shale industry. The record low gas price, not seen since December 2009, mirrors oil since 40 percent of America’s natural gas production is associated gas derived from oil production.

Reasons for the current low price of natural gas

Even before the current crisis, natural gas prices were unusually low at just $2.33 in December 2019,[ii] as supply greatly exceeded demand thanks to a mild winter, a slowdown of economic growth in the U.S., China and the rest of the world as well as a glut in liquid natural gas thanks to new export projects coming online in the U.S., Africa and Australia. The arrival and spread of COVID-19 is turning things from bad to worse. “U.S. electricity demand is beginning to rapidly decline due to coronavirus-related containment measures” states Andy Weismann, CEO of EBW Analytics Group on an industry website. And, since electricity consumption is now a major driver for gas usage in the U.S., demand for gas has fallen.

Well operators are cutting back on drilling

Crude oil prices look subdued for the coming year according to industry observers. By contrast, some analysts expect natural gas prices to rise by the fall for, in response to low crude prices, an increasing number of E&P companies are being forced to cut activity and reduce drilling budgets by between 30 and 50 percent. This is already being mirrored in a reduction in new fracked well-starts from 780 in January to just 162 in April 2020, according to recent statistics from Rystad Energy, April 2020. The U.S. government’s own estimates show output falling by 660,000 barrels per day by next year, from a peak of 13.2 million barrels a day. As crude output declines so will natural gas output and the price of the latter will rise.

The price of natural gas could double

The EIA’s April note forecasts rising gas prices in the autumn, in anticipation of higher winter demand for heating and a revival of industrial activity. At the start of April, gas was priced at just $1.64 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest it has been since December 2009. Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart expects gas prices to jump to $3.50 / MMBtu gas by winter 2020-2021 and reach $ 3.25 / MMBtu by summer 2021. Bank of America concurs but puts the rise to just $ 2.45 / MMBtu in 2021.

Impact of higher gas prices

The impact of higher natural gas prices could prevent hundreds of debt-laden small independent producers across Texas and the Midwest, who account for 83 percent of oil and 90 percent of gas output, from going bankrupt or shutting wells.

The return to better natural gas prices could incentivize E&P companies to reduce flaring and venting of gas and sell this higher valued commodity to local buyers. The upcoming completion of several gas takeaway pipelines will also open access to Gulf coast LNG processing plants and gas-hungry Mexico. At this juncture, as one industry observer put it, shale oil producers should regard natural gas as their main source of income in coming months and oil as a by-product.