EIA預測今明兩年美國原油產(chǎn)量將下降

據(jù)世界管道5月15日報道，據(jù)美國能源情報署(EIA)預計，2020年和2021年美國原油產(chǎn)量將下降，因為遏制疫情蔓延的努力將繼續(xù)導致石油產(chǎn)品和原油價格的急劇下降。EIA在其5月短期能源展望(STEO)中預測，2020年美國原油日均產(chǎn)量為1,170萬桶，2021年為1,090萬桶。較2019年的1220萬桶將分別減少50萬桶和130萬桶。

基準的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的現(xiàn)貨均價從2020年1月的58美元/桶下降到3月的29美元/桶和4月的17美元/桶。油價的急劇下跌已經(jīng)對美國的鉆探活動產(chǎn)生了重大影響。截至今年2月，除GoM外，美國本土48個州的在用鉆機總數(shù)為753臺，但3月和4月分別降至738臺和572臺，為2016年5月以來的最低水平。根據(jù)貝克休斯的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2020年5月8日，陸地鉆機數(shù)量為355臺，減少48臺。

EIA對原油產(chǎn)量的短期預測分為三個區(qū)域:不包括GoM的48個州(2019年原油產(chǎn)量的81%)、GpM(15%)和阿拉斯加(4%)。美國原油產(chǎn)量的預期變化，大多出現(xiàn)在除GoM產(chǎn)量以外的48個州，因為GoM和阿拉斯加的項目往往有不同的開發(fā)時間表，對短期價格變化不太敏感。

通常情況下，原油價格的變化會導致美國48個州的原油產(chǎn)量在大約6個月后發(fā)生變化。然而，目前的市場狀況可能不會遵循這種關(guān)系，因為許多生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)宣布大幅削減資本支出和鉆井水平，并計劃削減產(chǎn)量。最近WTI價格的大部分變化將繼續(xù)影響今年晚些時候和2021年全年的生產(chǎn)。EIA預測2021年美國原油日產(chǎn)量將減少80萬桶，這將是有記錄以來美國原油產(chǎn)量的最大年度降幅。

EIA預測，2020年和2021年，GoM產(chǎn)量將保持相對平穩(wěn)，日均190萬桶，與2019年的平均產(chǎn)量幾乎持平。此外，EIA預計2020年和2021年不會取消已宣布的GoM項目。EIA預測，2020年阿拉斯加的原油日均產(chǎn)量將保持在46萬桶，2021年將略有增加。

EIA的原油產(chǎn)量預測非常不確定，因為疫情緩解措施的影響仍在不斷演變，并由此產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟影響。此外，石油輸出國組織歐佩克成員國和其它合作伙伴國家宣布，到2022年將大幅減產(chǎn)。如果減產(chǎn)得以實現(xiàn)，將影響油價和美國石油生產(chǎn)國的投資決策。

郝芬 譯自 世界管道

原文如下：

EIA forecasts US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021 as efforts to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to result in a steep drop in demand for petroleum products and crude oil prices. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will average 11.7 million bpd in 2020 and 10.9 million bpd in 2021. These levels would be 0.5 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd, respectively, lower than the 2019 average of 12.2 million bpd.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil average spot price dropped from US$58/bbl in January 2020 to US$29/bbl in March and US$17/bbl in April. This sharp decline in the oil price is already having a significant effect on drilling activity in the US. The number of active drilling rigs in the Lower 48 states, excluding the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM), totalled 753 as of February, but it fell to 738 in March and 572 in April, the lowest since May 2016. As of 8 May 2020, the Lower 48 land rig count stood at 355 rigs, according to Baker Hughes data.

EIA’s short-term forecast for crude oil production is separated into three regions: the Lower 48 states excluding GoM (81% of 2019 crude oil production), the GpM (15%), and Alaska (4%). Most of the expected changes in US crude oil production arise in changes in Lower 48 states excluding GoM production because projects in the GoM and Alaska tend to have different development timelines and are less sensitive to near-term price changes.

Typically, crude oil price changes result in changes in Lower 48 US crude oil production after approximately six months. However, current market conditions will likely not follow this relationship as many producers have already announced significant reductions in capital spending and drilling levels, as well as plans to curtail production. Much of the recent changes in the WTI price will continue to affect production later this year and throughout 2021. EIA’s forecast 0.8 million bpd decline in US crude oil production in 2021 would be the largest annual decline in US crude oil production on record.

EIA forecasts GoM production to remain relatively flat, averaging 1.9 million bpd in 2020 and 2021, nearly unchanged from its 2019 average. In addition, EIA expects no cancellation in announced GoM projects for 2020 and 2021. EIA forecasts that crude oil production from Alaska will remain at an average of 460 000 bpd in 2020 and that it will increase slightly in 2021.

EIA’s crude oil production forecast is highly uncertain given the still-evolving impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation efforts and the resulting economic effects. In addition, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other partner countries announced significant production reductions through 2022 which, if realised, would affect oil prices and US producer investment decisions.