歐佩克將今年石油日需求預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)900萬(wàn)桶

據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克周三削減了對(duì)今年全球石油需求的估計(jì)，同時(shí)削減了對(duì)非歐佩克供應(yīng)的預(yù)測(cè)，因?yàn)橛捎谛枨蟊┑陀蛢r(jià)和有限的存儲(chǔ)能力，歐佩克+協(xié)定之外的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)加速了產(chǎn)量削減。

在如今發(fā)布的備受關(guān)注的《月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》中，歐佩克再次將今年的全球石油需求預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)了223萬(wàn)桶/天，并預(yù)計(jì)2020年的全球石油需求將比2019年減少907萬(wàn)桶/天。

歐佩克表示，事實(shí)上，2020年的需求萎縮可以通過政府比預(yù)期更早地放松與疫情相關(guān)的措施，以及對(duì)實(shí)施的非常規(guī)刺激計(jì)劃做出更快的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)反應(yīng)來(lái)緩解。

除了大幅下調(diào)需求預(yù)估外，OPEC還下調(diào)了對(duì)非OPEC國(guó)家今年供應(yīng)的預(yù)估，將其從上月的每日預(yù)估下調(diào)近200萬(wàn)桶。目前，受“包括大型石油公司在內(nèi)的石油公司——尤其是北美地區(qū)——宣布的停產(chǎn)或減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃”的推動(dòng)，今年非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將減少350萬(wàn)桶。

據(jù)歐佩克稱，“根據(jù)不同的消息來(lái)源和公司公告，到目前為止，包括石油巨頭在內(nèi)的美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商迄今已在今年第二季度將日產(chǎn)量至少降少了150萬(wàn)桶，這可能是通過關(guān)閉成本較高的油井，部分減少選定油井的產(chǎn)量，推遲“投產(chǎn)”油井來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的。

今年美國(guó)石油供應(yīng)進(jìn)一步下調(diào)了130萬(wàn)桶/日，到目前為止，與2019年相比，2020年的石油供應(yīng)下降了140萬(wàn)桶/日。

根據(jù)歐佩克的估計(jì)，OPEC+協(xié)議以外的產(chǎn)油國(guó)已宣布，截至5月6日，總計(jì)減產(chǎn)約360萬(wàn)桶/天，以應(yīng)對(duì)需求不足、油價(jià)低迷、供應(yīng)過剩和儲(chǔ)存能力有限的局面。

歐佩克表示，為解決當(dāng)前全球石油市場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重失衡而進(jìn)行的快速供應(yīng)調(diào)整，已開始顯示出積極的反應(yīng)，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度將加快再平衡步伐。

郝芬 譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

OPEC Slashes 2020 Oil Demand Forecast By 9 Million Bpd

OPEC slashed on Wednesday its global oil demand estimates for this year while cutting its forecast for non-OPEC supply as oil producers outside the OPEC+ pact accelerate production curtailments due to the demand crash, low oil prices, and limited storage capacity.

In its closely watched Monthly Oil Market Report published today, OPEC revised down, again, its global oil demand forecast for this year by a massive 2.23 million barrels per day (bpd), and now sees global oil demand falling by 9.07 million bpd in 2020 compared to 2019.

“Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages,” the cartel said.

Along with slashing demand projections, OPEC also took an ax to its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year, revising it by nearly 2-million-bpd from last month. Currently, non-OPEC supply is expected to drop by 3.5 million bpd this year, driven by “production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America.”

“According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of ‘putting on production’ wells,’’ OPEC said.

U.S. oil supply this year was further revised down by 1.3 million bpd to now show a decline of 1.4 million bpd in 2020 compared to 2019.

According to OPEC estimates, producers outside of the OPEC+ pact had announced combined cuts of around 3.6 million bpd as of May 6, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply, and limited storage capacity.

“The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters,” OPEC said.