油價因美國原油庫存下降而上漲

據CNBC網站5月14日消息：在美國原油庫存下降和國際能源署對下半年全球庫存下降的預測之后，油價周四上漲，但布倫特原油基準價仍徘徊在每桶30美元左右，因需求疲軟抑制了漲勢。

布倫特原油期貨上漲99美分，漲幅3.4%，至30.18美元/桶，而西德克薩斯中質原油期貨上漲94美分，漲幅3.7%，至26.23美元/桶。

美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾周三表示，經濟增長疲軟的“延長時期”，由于提供了一些看漲的動力，美國原油庫存在15周內首次下降。

EIA周三表示，截至5月8日當周，美國原油庫存減少了74.5萬桶，至5.315億桶。

現金市場正在走強，價差正在收窄，實物需求正在回升。所有這些將在未來幾周內提供價格支撐，但這種信心不會持久。

包括北海在內的實際原油價格一直在攀升，六個月布倫特原油期貨合約價格處于兩個月來的最低水平，約為3.50美元/桶。北海是布倫特原油流的發(fā)源地。

但任何復蘇都太過疲弱，無法消除今年需求的歷史性下滑。

國際能源署(IEA)周四再次預測，2020年石油需求將出現創(chuàng)紀錄的下降，不過該機構以放松封鎖措施為由，下調了對降幅的預期。

隨著需求增加，IEA預計下半年原油庫存將每天減少約550萬桶。

高盛表示，需求恢復和產量下降將使6月份全球石油市場陷入短缺。不過，該公司仍維持其夏季油價預測，布倫特原油為30美元/桶，西德克薩斯中質原油為28美元/桶。

石油輸出國組織（歐佩克）周三表示，預計2020年全球石油日需求將減少907萬桶，降幅大于此前預估的685萬桶。

該公司表示，預計第二季度需求將出現最大降幅。

馮娟 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

Oil prices rise on dip in US crude stockpiles, IEA data

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a drop in U.S. crude stocks and an IEA forecast for lower global stockpiles in the second half, but the Brent benchmark still hovered around $30 a barrel as a weak demand picture curbed gains.

Brent crude futures were up 99 cents, or 3.4%, to trade at $30.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 94 cents, or 3.7%, higher at $26.23 per barrel.

Prices have ticked up in the last two weeks as some countries relaxed coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns to allow factories and shops to reopen.

However the emergence of new cases in South Korea and China has raised concerns over a possible second wave of infections that would weigh on economic recovery and fuel demand.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Wednesday of an “extended period” of weak economic growth.

Providing some bullish impetus, U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 15 weeks.

U.S. crude stockpiles were down by 745,000 barrels to 531.5 million barrels in the week to May 8, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

“Cash markets are strengthening, time spreads are tighter and physical demand is picking up. All these will provide price supports in the next few weeks, but this confidence will not last,” PVM said in a report.

Physical crude prices, including in the North Sea which is home to the Brent crude stream, have been climbing and the six-month Brent futures contango is at its shallowest in two months at around -$3.50 a barrel.

But any recovery is seen as too weak to erase a historic demand fall this year.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday again forecast a record drop in demand in 2020, although it trimmed its estimate of the fall, citing easing lockdown measures.

As demand increases, the IEA expects crude stockpiles to shrink by around 5.5 million barrels per day in the second half.

Goldman Sachs said recovering demand and lower output would push the global oil market into deficit in June. However it maintained its summer price forecasts of $30 per barrel for Brent and $28 per barrel for WTI.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday it expected 2020 global oil demand to shrink by 9.07 million bpd, a deeper contraction than its previous forecast of 6.85 million bpd.

It said it expected the second quarter to see the steepest decline in demand.