天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)放緩但仍保持強(qiáng)勁

據(jù)世界天然氣5月11日?qǐng)?bào)道，法國(guó)天然氣研究中心(Cedigaz)發(fā)布其2020年首次預(yù)測(cè)，2019年，在供過于求的背景下，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩和冬季的溫和天氣等因素導(dǎo)致全球天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，造成液化天然氣過剩，價(jià)格大幅下降。天然氣需求增速已從2018年的5%放緩至2019年的2.3%，回復(fù)到本世紀(jì)初以來的年均增速。主要是因?yàn)殡娏凸I(yè)部門能源需求從煤炭和石油轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣，這是由天然氣較強(qiáng)勁的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力所推動(dòng)的，得益于日益豐富的低成本供應(yīng)，美國(guó)和歐洲的情況尤其如此。因此，天然氣仍然是能源需求增長(zhǎng)的主要受益行業(yè)，其在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的份額進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。

2019年，全球天然氣消費(fèi)量達(dá)到39480億立方米，比2018年增長(zhǎng)2.3%。與2018年一樣，美國(guó)和中國(guó)是兩大增長(zhǎng)中心，分別占全球增長(zhǎng)的31%和27%。不過，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的背景下，這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的天然氣需求擴(kuò)張速度較前幾年有所放緩。這一放緩也是天氣因素以及放寬煤轉(zhuǎn)氣政策的結(jié)果。歐洲聯(lián)盟(增長(zhǎng)2.4%)、大洋洲(澳大利亞、印度)、北非(阿爾及利亞)、中東和經(jīng)合組織美洲地區(qū)(加拿大、智利)的需求也很強(qiáng)勁。相反，獨(dú)聯(lián)體(俄羅斯、烏克蘭)的天然氣需求下降，主要是受到冬季溫和氣候的影響。

2019年，全球市場(chǎng)天然氣產(chǎn)量實(shí)現(xiàn)了快速增長(zhǎng)，增幅達(dá)3.5%，至40010億立方米，年增長(zhǎng)量為1360億立方米。全球天然氣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的近40%用于液化天然氣出口，其余部分用于國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)。僅美國(guó)就占全球增長(zhǎng)的三分之二左右。美國(guó)干氣產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)(+10%)部分是由油田伴生氣的增長(zhǎng)和新的天然氣管道容量推動(dòng)的。澳大利亞、中國(guó)、俄羅斯和埃及也提供了顯著的增長(zhǎng)。相反，歐洲天然氣產(chǎn)量(包括挪威)下降了7%，導(dǎo)致對(duì)外依存度增加。

2019年，國(guó)際天然氣貿(mào)易(凈流量)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)3.8%，至9920億立方米。這一增長(zhǎng)只能歸因于液化天然氣供應(yīng)的激增(+ 12.6%)，，這抵消了管道流量的大幅減少（-4.3%）。這一發(fā)展反映出，相對(duì)于管道天然氣，具有高度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的液化天然氣供應(yīng)日益豐富，尤其歐盟吸收了大部分額外的全球液化天然氣供應(yīng)(全球525億立方米的增量中的500億立方米)，成為了一個(gè)維持液化天然氣業(yè)務(wù)平衡的市場(chǎng)。

美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)以比需求快得多的速度增長(zhǎng)，從而創(chuàng)造了大量的出口順差。2019年，美國(guó)進(jìn)入全球十大天然氣出口國(guó)行列，成為全球第五大天然氣出口國(guó)。

隨著全球供應(yīng)能力增長(zhǎng)超過需求增長(zhǎng)，天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在2019年突然下跌，導(dǎo)致大量庫存注入。與2018年相比，亞洲和歐洲市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格下跌了40%以上，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格脫鉤。新的定價(jià)和交易模式重塑了日益依賴現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格和靈活的天然氣供應(yīng)的全球天然氣市場(chǎng)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 世界天然氣

原文如下：

NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWTH MODERATED BUT REMAINED STRONG - CEDIGAZ

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas, has just released its ? First Estimates 2020”. In 2019, slower economic growth, Chinese policy changes and a mild winter caused global gas demand growth to slow in a context of oversupply, resulting in a growing LNG surplus and much lower prices. The growth in natural gas demand has slowed down from 5% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019, returning to the average annual growth rate observed since the start of the century. The main factor behind growth was the switching from coal and oil to natural gas in the power and industry sectors, which was prompted by the competitiveness of natural gas thanks to a growing abundant low-cost supply. This was notably the case in the United States and Europe. Thus, natural gas has remained the main beneficiary of the energy demand growth, to the detriment of coal in particular, causing its share in the energy mix to expand further.

Global natural gas consumption reached 3948 bcm in 2019, a 2.3% growth from 2018, Like in 2018, the US and China were the two main growth centres, accounting for respectively 31% and 27% of the global increase. However, the expansion of natural gas demand in these two markets slowed down compared to the previous years in a context of weakening economic growth. This slowdown also resulted from weather factors as well as the relaxation of policy on coal-to-gas switching. Demand was also strong in the European Union (+ 2.4%), Asia-Oceania (Australia, India), North Africa (Algeria), the Middle East (Iran) and OECD Americas (Canada, Chile). Reversely, natural gas demand declined in the CIS (Russia, Ukraine), mainly as a result of a mild winter.

Global marketed gas production pursued its rapid expansion, up 3.5% to 4001 bcm in 2019, corresponding to an annual incremental volume of 136 bcm. Almost 40% of the global gas supply growth was dedicated to LNG exports, the remaining volume was consumed domestically. The US alone explained around two-thirds of the global increase. US dry gas production growth (+ 10%) was, in part, driven by a growth of associated gas from oil fields and by new gas pipeline capacity. Other significant increments were provided by Australia, China, Russia and Egypt. Reversely, European gas production (Norway included) fell by 7%, resulting in a growing external dependence.

International gas trade (net flows) grew at a robust rate of 3.8% to 992 bcm in 2019. This growth can be only attributed to the surge of LNG supply (+ 12.6%), which more than offset a significant reduction in pipeline flows (- 4.3%). This development reflects the growing abundance of highly competitive LNG supply which gained ground over pipeline gas, especially in the European Union, which absorbed most of the extra global LNG supply (50 bcm out of a global increment of 52.5 bcm), acting as a balancing market for the LNG business.

US gas production continued to increase at a much faster rate than consumption, thereby creating a large surplus destined for exports. In 2019, the US entered the rankings of the top-ten exporters to become the fifth largest natural gas exporter worldwide.

Spot gas prices fell abruptly in 2019 as global supply capacity growth outpaced demand growth, resulting in massive storage injections. Spot prices on the Asian and European markets plunged by more than 40% compared to 2018, resulting in a decoupling between oil-indexed and spot prices. New pricing and trading patterns reshape the global gas market which increasingly relies on spot-priced and flexible gas supply.