5月底石油需求或?qū)⒊^供應(yīng)

據(jù)路透社5月9日報道，高盛大宗商品主管柯里(Jeffrey Currie)在接受《巴倫周刊》(Barron 's Market Brief)采訪時表示，石油需求可能反彈至足以在本月底超過供應(yīng)的水平。這在很大程度上是因為所有主要生產(chǎn)商都執(zhí)行了減產(chǎn)。

然而，柯里補充道，還有大約12億桶的庫存，在油價回升之前，這些庫存需要被消耗掉。柯里認(rèn)為，這將分三個階段進行。

第一批需要被處理的是由浮式儲油罐存儲的數(shù)百萬桶石油——這是最昂貴的一種儲存方式，因此，貿(mào)易商和生產(chǎn)商為了節(jié)省油船費用，會首先將這部分庫存處理了。柯表示說，將在今年第三季度執(zhí)行，石油消耗量約為4.5億桶。今年第四季度，陸上石油庫存將開始減少，最多減少4億桶。

然而，價格的強勁反彈不太可能在短期內(nèi)發(fā)生，而且這種反彈是不可取的。高盛大宗商品分析主管認(rèn)為，如果布倫特原油價格升至每桶30美元以上，將刺激產(chǎn)量反彈，這意味著供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)反彈，而供應(yīng)反彈將再次對價格構(gòu)成壓力。

需求仍是油價的關(guān)鍵因素，全年需求可能仍將低迷。柯里指出，4月中旬，這一數(shù)字較危機爆發(fā)前下降了約3000萬?，F(xiàn)在，原油需求量較此前降低了1900萬桶/天，盡管需求已開始改善，但本月需求仍較危機前減少了1700萬桶/天，6月和7月減將較危機前減少1200萬桶/天。到8月，情況將會好轉(zhuǎn)，需求將較危機前低500 - 600萬桶/天。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs: Oil demand could exceed supply by end-May

Oil demand could rebound enough to exceed supply by the end of this month, Goldman’s head of commodities Jeffrey Currie told Barron’s Market Brief.

He noted that this would be in no small part because of the production cuts implemented by all major producers.

However, there are some 1.2 billion barrels in storage, Currie added, that would need to be drawn down before prices improve for more than a couple of hours. This, according to Currie, will happen in three stages.

The first oil in storage to go would be the millions of barrels in floating storage. It is the most expensive kind of storage, so it would make sense that traders and producers would first aim to get rid of it to save on tanker fees. Currie says this will happen sometime in the third quarter of the year. The amount of oil removed from floating storage will be around 450 million barrels. In the fourth quarter of the year, oil stockpiles in onshore storage will begin to decline, Currie said, by up to 400 million barrels.

However, a strong rebound in prices is unlikely to take place anytime soon--and such a rebound would be undesirable. If Brent rises above $30 a barrel, Goldman’s commodity analysis head argues, it would spur a rebound in production, implying a rebound in supply, and a rebound in supply will immediately pressure prices yet again.

Demand remains the key factor for oil prices, and demand will likely remain depressed throughout the year. In mid-April, Currie noted, it fell by about 30 million from pre-crisis levels. Now, demand is about 19 million bpd below pre-crisis levels. While this demand has started to improve, it would still be down by 17 million bpd from pre-crisis demand this month and by 12 million barrels in June and July. By August, things will be looking up, with demand at 5-6 million bpd below pre-crisis levels.