油氣行業(yè)2020年預(yù)測(cè)支出將減少850億美元

據(jù)油氣新聞5月5日消息稱，數(shù)據(jù)和分析機(jī)構(gòu)GlobalData表示，為保護(hù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，維持股東派息并保留現(xiàn)金，石油和天然氣公司已進(jìn)入生存模式，減少預(yù)測(cè)支出。

GlobalData的石油和天然氣分析師Daniel Rogers表示：“該行業(yè)近期的悲觀短期前景迫使許多公司重新評(píng)估其遠(yuǎn)期支出。迄今為止，該行業(yè)的100多家公司已被削減逾850億美元。采取這些措施是為了度過(guò)前所未有的市場(chǎng)不確定性，并且短期內(nèi)可能會(huì)有很多的公司效仿?！?/span>

綜合石油和天然氣公司報(bào)告了2020年最大的資本支出削減量。上游業(yè)務(wù)、尤其是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆探業(yè)務(wù)、全球勘探預(yù)算以及未經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)的開發(fā)項(xiàng)目都出現(xiàn)了大幅資本削減。

Rogers繼續(xù)說(shuō)：“整個(gè)價(jià)值鏈上，該行業(yè)削減投資的嚴(yán)重程度各不相同，以中游為重點(diǎn)的公司削減的原始預(yù)算通常較少。這可能是因?yàn)樵谟蛢r(jià)波動(dòng)期間，中游行業(yè)為參與者(尤其是管道運(yùn)營(yíng)商)提供了相對(duì)較高的保護(hù)，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)金流對(duì)大宗商品價(jià)格的依賴程度較低，而對(duì)供應(yīng)量的依賴程度更高?！?/span>

盡管并非所有油田服務(wù)集團(tuán)的成員都宣布了2020年資本支出的確切修訂，但其重要性是顯而易見的。該該集團(tuán)擁有最高的平均削減百分比，雖然在一個(gè)較低的量。進(jìn)入2020年的時(shí)候，服務(wù)成本已經(jīng)被之前的2014/2015年的低迷壓低了，最新的發(fā)展對(duì)已經(jīng)在苦苦掙扎的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了又一沖擊。在全球范圍內(nèi)，鉆井、勘探和開發(fā)支出的下降將對(duì)油田服務(wù)提供商產(chǎn)生沖擊。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油氣新聞

原文如下：

Over US$85bn of 2020 forecast expenditure erased from oil and gas sector, says GlobalData

To protect balance sheets, maintain shareholder pay-outs and preserve cash, oil and gas companies have gone into survival mode, reducing forecast expenditure says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Daniel Rogers, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The bearish near-term outlook for the industry has forced many companies to reassess their forward expenditure. To date, more than US$85bn has been cut from over 100 companies across the industry. These measures have been taken to survive the unparalleled market uncertainty and it is likely that more companies will follow in the near term.”

Integrated oil and gas companies have reported the largest volume of capex reductions for 2020. Significant capital reductions have been seen in upstream operations, particularly for US shale drilling but also for global exploration budgets, and unsanctioned developments.

Rogers continues: “The severity of investment cuts in the sector varies across the value chain with midstream-focused companies generally sacrificing less of their original budgets. This is likely attributable to the relatively higher level of protection that the midstream sector offers players (particularly for pipeline operators) during periods of oil price volatility, since cash flow is less dependent on commodity prices and more dependent on supply volumes.”

Although not all members of the oil field service group have announced exact capex revisions for 2020, the gravity is clear. The group holds the highest average reduction percentage, albeit at a far lower volume. Coming into 2020 service costs were already beaten down by the previous downturn in 2014/2015 and the latest developments deal another blow to an already struggling segment. Globally, drops in drilling, and exploration and development spending will have a knock on impact for the oil field service providers.