雷斯塔：2025年全球石油供應(yīng)缺口500萬(wàn)桶/日

據(jù)油田技術(shù)5月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管全球正面臨著有史以來(lái)最大的石油過(guò)剩，但未來(lái)幾年形勢(shì)將發(fā)生巨大變化。雷斯塔能源公司預(yù)測(cè)，目前注重成本的勘探與生產(chǎn)公司缺乏活動(dòng)和投資計(jì)劃，加上全球石油需求不可避免地出現(xiàn)反彈，預(yù)計(jì)2025年將造成約500萬(wàn)桶/日的供應(yīng)缺口，價(jià)格有望突破68美元/桶，以平衡市場(chǎng)。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，2025年全球?qū)σ后w的需求將達(dá)到約1.05億桶/日。疫情發(fā)生前，該公司預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)將略高于需求。然而，由于今年危機(jī)帶來(lái)的投資和活動(dòng)的急劇縮減，雷斯塔能源公司現(xiàn)在估計(jì)，上游行業(yè)的下行周期將使2025年的產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)減少約600萬(wàn)桶/日。

為了填補(bǔ)這一缺口，雷斯塔能源公司認(rèn)為，一些歐佩克核心成員國(guó)，如沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和阿聯(lián)酋，將能夠提高產(chǎn)量。總的來(lái)說(shuō)，這些國(guó)家可能會(huì)填補(bǔ)每天300萬(wàn)到400萬(wàn)桶的缺口。剩余的缺口很可能將由美國(guó)致密油的產(chǎn)量填補(bǔ)。

雷斯塔能源上游研究機(jī)構(gòu)Espen Erlingsen負(fù)責(zé)人表示：“當(dāng)前的低油價(jià)使中期供需平衡大大收緊。盡管致密油產(chǎn)量高增長(zhǎng)，但預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)5年，歐佩克中東國(guó)家以外的石油產(chǎn)量將保持平穩(wěn)。隨著需求有望復(fù)蘇，歐佩克核心成員國(guó)將需要大幅增加供應(yīng)，否則市場(chǎng)將面臨比我們的基本情況預(yù)測(cè)更高的價(jià)格?！?/span>

今年全球勘探與生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)將大幅下降，因?yàn)樯嫌喂驹噲D應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)性的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境，導(dǎo)致傳統(tǒng)的項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)活動(dòng)降至40年來(lái)的最低水平，今年致密油投資下降近50%。較低活動(dòng)水平的影響因供應(yīng)部門(mén)而異。

對(duì)于致密油（包括天然氣），其對(duì)產(chǎn)量的影響相當(dāng)直接，雷斯塔能源公司已將其2020年的預(yù)測(cè)降低了近190萬(wàn)桶/日。新的致密油井大幅減少也將產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期影響，因?yàn)榭晒┥a(chǎn)的油井將減少。對(duì)于2025年，Rystad的致密油總產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)被修正為1800萬(wàn)桶/日，比我們危機(jī)前的預(yù)測(cè)低270萬(wàn)桶/日。

洪偉立 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: global investment slowdown set to hike oil prices and cause undersupply of 5 million bpd in 2025

The Covid-19 pandemic will leave not only short-term, but also long-term scars on the oil market. Even though the world is currently facing what is arguably the largest oil glut ever recorded, the tables will turn dramatically in coming years. The lack of activity and investments currently planned by cost-conscious E&P firms, combined with an inevitable rebound in global oil demand, is set to cause a supply deficit of around 5 million bpd in 2025, Rystad Energy calculates, with prices seen topping US$68/bbl to balance the market.

In Rystad's base case scenario, global demand for liquids in 2025 will reach around 105 million bpd. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy expected supply to slightly exceed demand. However, due to the steep curtailment of investments and activity that the current crisis has brought this year, Rystad Energy now estimates that the downcycle in the upstream industry will remove about 6 million bpd from production forecasts for 2025.

To fill this gap, Rystad Energy believes that some of the core OPEC countries, like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, will be able to ramp up production. In total these countries might fill 3 million to 4 million bpd of this gap. The remaining shortfall will most likely be filled with volumes from US tight oil. To achieve this, prices may move above our current base case, which currently stands at an average price of US$68/bbl in 2025.

“The current low oil price has tightened the medium-term supply and demand balance considerably. Despite high growth in tight oil, oil production outside the OPEC Middle East countries is expected to stay flat over the next five years. As demand is expected to recover, the core OPEC counties will need to increase their supply significantly or the market will face even higher prices than our base-case forecast,” said Rystad Energy Head of Upstream Research Espen Erlingsen.

Global E&P activity is poised to fall dramatically this year as upstream companies try to cope with the challenging market conditions, resulting in conventional project sanctioning activity falling to a 40-year low and tight oil investments dropping by almost 50% this year. The impact of the lower activity levels varies depending on the supply segment.

For tight oil (including NGL) the impact on production is rather immediate, and Rystad has reduced its 2020 forecast by close to 1.9 million bpd. The dramatic reduction in new tight oil wells will also have a long-term impact, as fewer wells will be available for production. For 2025 Rystad's total tight oil production forecast is revised to 18 million bpd, or 2.7 million bpd lower than our pre-crisis estimate.