全球天然氣市場或面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)

據(jù)今日油價4月27日報道，當所有人都在關(guān)注原油市場的崩潰時，全球天然氣市場也在面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)。據(jù)路透社報道，亞洲和歐洲的買家取消了至少20批美國液化天然氣(LNG)。全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨蟛粩鄿p少，美國主要液化天然氣出口商Cheniere Energy估計，有10批貨物被取消。

由于去年供應(yīng)的大幅增加，亞洲液化天然氣價格在疫情到來前就已大幅下跌。近期，亞洲6月份交貨的液化天然氣價格為每百萬英熱2美元，僅略高于美國Henry Hub的價格。而就在去年10月，亞洲液化天然氣價格約為7美元/百萬英熱。

據(jù)路透社報道，美國天然氣出口商面臨的問題是，在計入液化和運輸成本后，輸往亞洲的天然氣盈虧平衡價格約為每百萬英熱5.56美元，但目前的價格還不到上述水平的一半。天然氣出口往往是在嚴格的合同下按固定進行的，但現(xiàn)在這些貨物的交易很可能被取消。

克拉克?威廉姆斯?德里在能源經(jīng)濟與金融分析研究所（IEEFA）的一份新報告中寫道：“液化天然氣的前景如何?這個曾經(jīng)全球最熱門的能源商品市場似乎正在面臨崩潰。值得注意的是，2018年秋季液化天然氣價格約為12美元/百萬英熱。”

近年來，石油巨頭們在液化天然氣上押下了重注。2015年，看到市場對天然氣需求不斷飆升，荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)斥資逾500億美元收購了英國天然氣集團(BG Group)。4年多前，殼牌首席執(zhí)行官范伯登(Ben van Beurden)在完成對英國天然氣集團(BG Group)的收購后表示:“我們將打造一家更精簡、更具競爭力的公司，充分發(fā)揮我們在深水領(lǐng)域和液化天然氣方面的核心專長。”

這筆交易使殼牌成為全球最大的液化天然氣交易商之一。那時，其它幾家石油巨頭，如道達爾、埃克森美孚和雪佛龍也在液化天然氣上進行了大規(guī)模投資。

液化天然氣現(xiàn)在受到的沖擊，可以說與原油一樣嚴重。過去一個月發(fā)生了一系列引人注目的投資延遲或取消事件。例如，?？松梨?4月初推遲了對莫桑比克一個大型液化天然氣出口項目的最終投資決定。然而，甚至在當前危機之前，該行業(yè)就面臨著經(jīng)濟困境?？死恕ね匪?德瑞指出，這些公司把天然氣市場危機歸咎于新型冠狀病毒的爆發(fā)，而忽視了液化天然氣價格早在疫情爆發(fā)之前就已經(jīng)開始下跌的事實，令人震驚的是，大大小小的公司都在取消業(yè)務(wù)——既有投機性初創(chuàng)企業(yè)，也有國有巨頭和上市巨頭。這將波及上游部門，由于供過于求，美國天然氣行業(yè)在進入2020年之前也面臨著問題。且出口可能無法像過去那樣拉動天然氣鉆探企業(yè)的需求，Henry Hub的價格停留在1.8美元/百萬英熱。

然而，耐人尋味的是，天然氣鉆探企業(yè)的股價最近幾周出現(xiàn)反彈。例如，總部位于匹茲堡的殷拓集團(EQT)股價自3月份以來已經(jīng)翻了一番。不過這受到美聯(lián)儲向金融領(lǐng)域注入了數(shù)萬億美元資金，導致各類金融資產(chǎn)重新膨脹以及投資者“逢低買入”的影響。

行業(yè)分析師預測，二疊紀天然氣產(chǎn)量的巨大缺口將在明年推高價格。高盛表示，天然氣價格將在2021年升至3.25美元/百萬英熱。但就目前而言，液化天然氣的經(jīng)濟前景相當黯淡。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

The LNG Market Is “Imploding”

While everyone is understandably watching the meltdown in the crude oil market, the global market for natural gas is also cratering.

At least 20 cargoes of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been cancelled by buyers in Asia and Europe, according to Reuters. The global pandemic and the unfolding economic crisis have slashed demand for gas worldwide. Cheniere Energy, one of the main exporters of U.S. LNG, has seen an estimated 10 cargoes cancelled by buyers halfway around the world, Reuters said.

The price for LNG in Asia was already crashing before the pandemic, owing to a substantial increase in supply last year. Prices for LNG in Asia for June delivery have recently traded at $2/MMBtu, only slightly higher than Henry Hub prices in the U.S.

As recently as October, LNG prices in Asia traded at just under $7/MMBtu.

The problem for American gas exporters is that after factoring in the cost of liquefaction and transportation, gas breakeven prices for delivering to Asia are around $5.56/MMBtu, according to Reuters. But prices are trading at less than half of those levels.

Gas exports tend to be conducted under rigid contracts, but cargoes are now facing cancellation.

“The financial prospects for [LNG] ? once one of the globe’s hottest energy commodities – seem to be imploding before our eyes,” Clark Williams-Derry wrote in a new report for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). He noted that LNG prices in the fall of 2018 were at around $12/MMBtu.

The oil majors have made large bets on LNG in recent years. Royal Dutch Shell spent more than $50 billion to buy BG Group in 2015. The move back then was made with an eye on surging demand for natural gas. “We will now be able to shape a simpler, leaner, more competitive company, focusing on our core expertise in deep water and LNG,” Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden said after closing on the acquisition of BG Group more than four years ago.

The deal remade Shell into one of the largest traders of LNG on the planet. Several other oil majors – Total SA, ExxonMobil and Chevron, for instance – have also made massive bets on LNG.

LNG is now arguably getting hit just as hard as crude oil from the pandemic and the global slowdown. A series of high-profile investment delays or cancellations have occurred in the past month. ExxonMobil, for instance, delayed a final investment decision on a large LNG export project in Mozambique in early April.

However, the industry faced troubled economics even before the current crisis. “[C]ompanies pinned the delays on the novel coronavirus, while ignoring the fact that LNG prices were already deflating long before the worst impacts of the pandemic were being felt,” Clark Williams-Derry wrote in the IEEFA report. He wrote that what was striking was the fact that companies of varying sizes and corporate structures were cancelling decisions – speculative startups, but also state-owned giants and publicly-traded supermajors.

Delayed and cancelled cargoes could ripple back up to the upstream sector. The U.S. natural gas industry was also facing problems heading into 2020 because of oversupply. Exports may not provide the demand pull that it once did for gas drillers. Henry Hub prices are stuck at $1.80/MMBtu.

Ironically, however, the share prices of gas drillers have rebounded in recent weeks. Pittsburgh-based EQT has seen its share price double since March, for example. There are a few reasons for this. The Federal Reserve has funneled trillions of dollars into the financial sector, which has re-inflated financial assets of all types. Investors also seem to be trying to “buy the dip.”

But industry analysts are also predicting that a huge shortfall in gas production in the Permian will boost prices by next year. Goldman Sachs says that gas will jump to $3.25/MMBtu in 2021.

For now though, the economics for LNG are pretty dismal. “The LNG industry entered today’s crisis on shaky footing.