據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著油價(jià)徘徊在每桶20美元左右，且金融危機(jī)才剛剛開(kāi)始，石油巨頭們正面臨著前所未有的財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題。挪威國(guó)家石油公司成為了第一家削減股息的大型石油公司，該公司將其股息削減了67%，且在之后可能會(huì)繼續(xù)削減。

周五，意大利埃尼集團(tuán)公布其第一季度利潤(rùn)下降94%，值得注意的是，一季度還沒(méi)有受到當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的全面沖擊。埃尼集團(tuán)削減了30%的支出，并將其今年的產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下調(diào)了10-12.5萬(wàn)桶/天。埃尼集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官克勞迪奧·德斯卡齊表示：" 3月以來(lái)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷著70多年來(lái)最復(fù)雜的時(shí)期，我們無(wú)法預(yù)計(jì)2020年的市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)。”

據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》和伍德麥肯茲數(shù)據(jù)顯示，如果未來(lái)兩年布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶38元，那么，美國(guó)和歐洲最大的幾家石油公司就有損失1750億美元現(xiàn)金的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

各大石油公司通常會(huì)不惜一切代價(jià)守住股息。當(dāng)無(wú)法同時(shí)支付資本支出和股東支出(過(guò)去10年一直如此)時(shí)，石油巨頭們就會(huì)采取削減支出、出售資產(chǎn)和增加新債務(wù)等舉措。不過(guò)，在今天的危機(jī)環(huán)境中，這一模式變得更具挑戰(zhàn)性。在石油大量過(guò)剩、需求持續(xù)下滑的情況下，拋售資產(chǎn)并不是真正可以依賴的策略。首先，各類產(chǎn)品的買家都將非常少，至少不會(huì)以大公司希望的價(jià)格購(gòu)買。此外，潛在買家的財(cái)務(wù)狀況可能更糟糕，沒(méi)有數(shù)十億美元的資金可以用來(lái)投資那些不需要的項(xiàng)目。

這使得削減開(kāi)支和債務(wù)成為主要手段。?？松梨谠谌ツ耆臧l(fā)行70億美元債券后，僅在3月和4月就已經(jīng)背負(fù)了180億美元的額外債務(wù)。在過(guò)去的幾周里，殼牌公司已經(jīng)收回了200億美元的新債務(wù)。

目前還不清楚這種策略能持續(xù)多久。自3月份以來(lái)，?？松梨诘男庞迷u(píng)級(jí)已被兩家評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)下調(diào)。穆迪分析師在4月初寫道，?？松梨诘默F(xiàn)金流軌跡在進(jìn)入2020年時(shí)已經(jīng)相對(duì)疲弱。隨著高速增長(zhǎng)的資本投資加上低迷的石油和天然氣價(jià)格，以及下游和化工行業(yè)的低盈利，導(dǎo)致該公司2019年的自由現(xiàn)金流為負(fù)值，債務(wù)也不斷增加”。

獨(dú)立的美國(guó)頁(yè)巖公司的情況則更糟。據(jù)估計(jì)，在10天的時(shí)間里，德克薩斯州有2500名石油和天然氣工人失去了工作。由于價(jià)格低廉，大陸資源公司已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了在北達(dá)科他州的大部分生產(chǎn)。今年3月，西方石油公司削減了86%的股息，該公司的財(cái)務(wù)困境相較其他石油巨頭要嚴(yán)重得多，在去年收購(gòu)阿納達(dá)科石油公司之后，該公司基本上無(wú)法再承擔(dān)新的債務(wù)。

與獨(dú)立的頁(yè)巖鉆探商相比，石油巨頭在危機(jī)中生存的能力要強(qiáng)得多，可能會(huì)以一種小規(guī)模、多負(fù)債的形式生存下來(lái)。

當(dāng)前危機(jī)的影響將是長(zhǎng)期的。據(jù)Rystad能源公司稱，由于目前的開(kāi)支削減，到2030年，全球石油供應(yīng)將減少6%，大約有價(jià)值1950億美元的非頁(yè)巖項(xiàng)目被推遲。

鄒勤 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Big Oil’s Dilemma: Cut Dividends Or Cut Operations

The oil majors are facing a financial vice like they never have before. With oil prices hovering around $20 per barrel and no end in sight for the global pandemic, the financial pain has only just begun. Norway’s Equinor became the first large oil company to cut its dividend, slashing it by 67 percent. It may not be the last.

On Friday, Italy’s Eni reported a 94 percent decline in profit in the first quarter, a period that did not capture the full brunt of the current slump. Eni cut spending by 30 percent and lowered its production guidance for this year by 100,000-125,000 bpd. “The period since March has been the most complex period the global economy has seen for more than 70 years,” Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said. “Like everyone, we expect a complicated 2020.”

The largest U.S. and European oil companies are in danger of burning through $175 billion in cash if Brent averages $38 per barrel over the next two years, according to the FT and Wood Mackenzie.

The majors have typically guarded dividends at almost all costs. When unable to cover capex and also shareholder payouts – as has consistently been the case over the past decade – the majors have resorted to some combination of spending cuts, asset sales and taking on new debt.

That formula becomes more challenged in today’s crisis environment. With a massive surplus of oil and the prospect of a persistent slump in demand, selling off assets isn’t really a strategy they can rely on. For one, there are going to be very few buyers for anything, at least not at prices the majors would want. Also, would-be buyers are probably in worse financial shape and don’t have billions of dollars lying around that they can throw at the majors for their unwanted projects.

That leaves spending cuts and debt as the main instruments the majors will use. ExxonMobil has already taken on an additional $18 billion in debt in March and April alone, after $7 billion in bonds issued in all of last year. Shell has taken out $20 billion in new debt in the past few weeks.

It’s unclear how long that strategy can last. ExxonMobil has already seen its credit downgraded by two different ratings agencies since March. Exxon's cash flow trajectory was “already relatively weak entering 2020, as very high growth capital investment combined with muted oil and gas prices and low [earnings in its downstream and chemicals segments] resulted in substantial negative free cash flow and rising debt in 2019,” Moody’s analysts wrote in early April.

Independent U.S. shale companies are in even worse shape. An estimated 2,500 oil and gas workers lost their jobs in Texas in a 10-day span. Continental Resources has shut in most of its production in North Dakota because of low prices. In March, Occidental Petroleum cut its dividend by 86 percent. Occidental is in a much more serious financial predicament than the oil majors, largely unable to take on new debt after its unfortunately timed takeover of Anadarko Petroleum last year.

The oil majors have a much better ability to survive the crisis than independent shale drillers, but they may survive in a smaller, more indebted form compared to before the pandemic.

The effects of the current crisis will be felt over the long-term. According to Rystad Energy, global oil supply will be 6 percent lower in 2030 than it otherwise would have been due to the current cutbacks in spending. Roughly $195 billion in non-shale projects have been delayed, Rystad said.