今年全球地震行業(yè)收入同比或?qū)⒄舭l(fā)77%

據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)2020年4月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，疫情影響和當(dāng)前的低油價(jià)環(huán)境已促使全球勘探和生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)商削減成本，取消最重要的投資計(jì)劃外的所有投資計(jì)劃。挪威能源研究公司雷斯塔能源的一份分析報(bào)告顯示，受影響最嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)行業(yè)是地震行業(yè)，如果布倫特原油價(jià)格跌至每桶30美元，今年全球地震行業(yè)的收入預(yù)計(jì)將下降51%，如果布倫特原油價(jià)格跌至每桶20美元，今年全球地震行業(yè)的收入預(yù)計(jì)將比2019年的水平下降77%。

這些預(yù)測(cè)在很大程度上是由勘探和生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)商大幅調(diào)整勘探支出以及全球許多國(guó)家為應(yīng)對(duì)低油價(jià)而推遲頒發(fā)許可證而推動(dòng)的。雷斯塔能源公司表示，根據(jù)新的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)，今年全球勘探支出預(yù)計(jì)將比去年的水平下降20%以上，僅海上勘探鉆井支出就至少下降12%。

在勘探活動(dòng)中，受打擊最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)將是在最近獲得的區(qū)塊中取得新的地質(zhì)和地球物理研究，以及迄今在尚未核準(zhǔn)勘探井中進(jìn)行的工作。至于正在進(jìn)行的海上項(xiàng)目，由于旅行限制和隔離規(guī)則造成的后勤物流阻滯正在影響海上作業(yè)船的人員變動(dòng)，并可能導(dǎo)致完工延遲，這可能嚴(yán)重影響中小型公司的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。

雷斯塔能源公司油田服務(wù)分析師賓尼·巴戈說：“所有的地震公司都已經(jīng)開始調(diào)整他們的商業(yè)計(jì)劃，以便更好地為這次衰退做準(zhǔn)備。大多數(shù)地震公司都采取了削減成本的措施，包括裁員、強(qiáng)制休假、地震船停止作業(yè)和降低總成本?！?/span>

雷斯塔能源公司表示，總體而言，它預(yù)計(jì)多客戶地震公司能夠比地震數(shù)據(jù)采集公司更有效地適應(yīng)當(dāng)前的低迷態(tài)勢(shì)。多客戶數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)可以進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮拯救作用，因?yàn)榕c根據(jù)合同獲取數(shù)據(jù)相比，多客戶研究的成本要低得多。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，許多大型多客戶地震公司近年來都實(shí)施了輕資產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)模式，預(yù)計(jì)這些公司能夠迅速適應(yīng)需求的變化。由于這些公司需要的地震船系租用，他們可以控制他們的地震活動(dòng)水平，保護(hù)他們的現(xiàn)金流。

另一方面，使用自有地震車隊(duì)的合同數(shù)據(jù)采集模式的公司可能會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重影響，一些合同已經(jīng)被取消，未來的活動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少。雷斯塔能源公司表示，這些公司可能很難維持自己的地震車隊(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)。

巴戈總結(jié)道：“對(duì)于大量投資于海外收購(gòu)的中小企業(yè)來說，未來將是動(dòng)蕩的時(shí)期，因?yàn)樗鼈兏锌赡艹蔀槠飘a(chǎn)和不良資產(chǎn)出售的受害者。由于服務(wù)公司將優(yōu)先考慮支付他們的運(yùn)營(yíng)成本，為了生存，市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)再次降低合同價(jià)格和租船費(fèi)率?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

Seismic industry revenues to nearly evaporate in 2020 – Rystad Energy

The COVID-19 pandemic and the current low-oil-price environment have pushed global exploration and production operators to cut costs, scrapping all but the most vital of their investment plans. The supply industry that will suffer the most as a result is seismic, as shown by a Rystad Energy analysis, with revenues estimated to fall this year by 51% in a $30 Brent scenario and by 77% if the Brent falls to $20, compared to levels seen in 2019.

The forecasts are driven largely by considerable revisions in exploration spending from the E&P operators and delayed licensing rounds by many governments across the world in response to low oil prices. Rystad Energy said under the new market dynamics, it expects exploration spending to drop by more than 20% from its 2019 levels, with at least a 12% decline seen by offshore exploration drilling alone.

Within exploration activities, the hardest-hit area will be the acquisition of new geological and geophysical studies in recently acquired blocks and work on yet-to-be-approved exploration wells. As for the ongoing offshore projects, logistical challenges caused by travel restrictions and quarantine rules are impacting crew changes for offshore vessels and could result in completion delays that could severely hit the balance sheets of small and medium-sized companies.

“Seismic companies across the board have started to adjust their business plans to better prepare themselves for this downturn. Most companies have implemented cost-cutting measures which include layoffs, furloughs, cold stacking of vessels and general cost reductions,” says Rystad Energy Oilfield Service Analyst Binny Bagga.

In general, Rystad Energy said it expects multi-client seismic companies to be able to adjust to the current downturn more efficiently than the seismic data acquisition companies. Multi-client data libraries could further act as a savior because of the substantially lower cost associated with the multi-client studies compared to when data is acquired under a contract.

Rystad Energy said many of the major multi-client seismic companies have in recent years implemented asset-light business models and it expects these companies to be able to quickly adapt to changes in demand. Since these companies charter the vessels they need, they can control their level of activity and protect their cash flows.