美國天然氣期貨價漲至九周高點

據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)4月22日路透社報道，美國天然氣期貨周三漲逾6%，至九周高點，因市場預計未來幾周天然氣產(chǎn)量將下降，因近期美國原油價格暴跌，頁巖盆地的鉆探商關(guān)閉油井。那些油井生產(chǎn)大量的天然氣。

紐約商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 5月份交付的近月天然氣期貨價格上漲11.8美分，漲幅6.5%，收于每百萬英熱單位1.939美元。

與此同時，由于為減緩疫情而進行的封鎖限制了全球?qū)κ偷男枨?，美國原油期貨有望連續(xù)第三周下跌。 這使得美國合同在此期間下跌了50％以上。

然而，展望未來，2020年和2021年的天然氣期貨價格遠高于最近一個月的價格，因為市場預計，一旦政府放松旅行和工作限制，隨著經(jīng)濟復蘇，需求將大幅上升。日歷2021年連續(xù)30天超過2022年，連續(xù)20天超過2025年。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)公司Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國本土48個州的天然氣產(chǎn)量周二跌至923億立方英尺/天(bcfd)的四周低點，周一為93.1億立方英尺/天。

從長遠來看，據(jù)EIA預計，疫情影響將使美國的天然氣日需求量（不包括出口）從2019年的創(chuàng)紀錄的849.7 億立方英尺降至2020年的日均837.9 億立方英尺和2021年的812.4 億立方英尺。若預測正確，這將是自2017年以來消費首次出現(xiàn)年度下降，也是自2006年以來需求首次連續(xù)兩年下降。

據(jù)EIA預計，隨著更多的美國液化天然氣(LNG)出口工廠和輸往墨西哥的管道投入使用，未來幾年美國的液化天然氣(LNG)和管道出口仍將創(chuàng)下新的紀錄。然而，出口增長的速度已經(jīng)低于該機構(gòu)在大流行之前的預期。

EIA預計LNG日出口量將從2019年的創(chuàng)紀錄的50億立方英尺增長到2020年的70億立方英尺和2021年的77億立方英尺，而管道日出口量將從2019年的創(chuàng)紀錄的78億立方英尺增長到2020年的84億立方英尺和2021年的86億立方英尺。

短期內(nèi)，隨著天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖，據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv預計，天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖，包括出口在內(nèi)的48個州的天然氣日需求將從本周的935億立方英尺降至下周的889億立方英尺。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)，由于今年迄今為止的溫和天氣和與冠狀病毒相關(guān)的需求破壞，美國輸往加拿大的管道出口已跌至30天平均24億立方英尺/天，輸往墨西哥的為49億立方英尺/天，而1月份輸往加拿大的管道出口約為35億立方英尺/天，輸往墨西哥的管道出口約為59億立方英尺/天。

與此同時，據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，流向美國LNG出口碼頭的天然氣量從周一的81億立方英尺/天降至周二的77億立方英尺/天的五周低點。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Gas Futures Jump to 9-Week High as Output Slides

U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 6% to a nine-week high on Wednesday on expectations gas production will decline in coming weeks as drillers shut oil wells in shale basins due to the recent collapse of U.S. crude prices.

Those oil wells produce a lot of gas.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.8 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $1.939 per million British thermal units.

U.S. crude futures, meanwhile, were on track to fall for a third week in a row as government lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus cut global demand for oil. That puts the U.S. contract down over 50% during that time.

Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021were trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump as the economy snaps back once governments loosen travel and work restrictions. Calendar 2021 has traded over 2022 for 30 days in a row and over 2025 for 20 days.

Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to a four-week low of 92.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from 93.1 bcfd on Monday, according to data firm Refinitiv.

In the long term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas demand - not including exports - to an average of 83.79 bcfd in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019. If correct, that would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006.

The EIA expects U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports will still hit fresh records in coming years as more LNG export plants and pipelines to Mexico enter service. The pace of that export growth, however, has slowed from what the agency expected before the pandemic.

The EIA projected LNG exports would rise from a record 5.0 bcfd in 2019 to 7.0 bcfd in 2020 and 7.7 bcfd in 2021, while pipeline exports will rise from a record 7.8 bcfd in 2019 to 8.4 bcfd in 2020 and 8.6 bcfd in 2021.

In the short term with the coming of milder weather, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 93.5 bcfd this week to 88.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder.

U.S. pipeline exports have dropped to a 30-day average of 2.4 bcfd to Canada and 4.9 bcfd to Mexico due to mild weather so far this year and coronavirus-related demand destruction, according to Refinitiv, down from around 3.5 bcfd to Canada and 5.9 bcfd to Mexico in January.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals, meanwhile, fell to a five-week low of 7.7 bcfd on Tuesday from 8.1 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv.