英國(guó)成為全球最便宜的天然氣市場(chǎng)

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)4月22日倫敦報(bào)道，英國(guó)已成為世界上最便宜的天然氣市場(chǎng)，由于疫情造成的能源需求下降，本周前一個(gè)月的合約價(jià)跌破美國(guó)的價(jià)格，這是很罕見(jiàn)的情況。

上一次發(fā)生這種情況是十年前在2007/08年度全球金融危機(jī)之后發(fā)生的。

通常認(rèn)為美國(guó)天然氣交易樞紐Henry hub的天然氣價(jià)格是歐洲天然氣價(jià)格的下限。英國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格跌至低于美國(guó)的價(jià)格使其不僅在歐洲是最便宜的，而且在全球也是最便宜的。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)顯示，英國(guó)國(guó)家平衡點(diǎn)(NBP) 5月合約周一收于每百萬(wàn)英熱單位1.72美元，較美國(guó)亨利樞紐5月期貨合約低0.20美元。

周二，英國(guó)合約價(jià)格下跌更多，下午交易價(jià)格約為每百萬(wàn)英熱單位1.63美元。

Refinitiv歐洲天然氣研究主管韋恩?布萊恩(Wayne Bryan)表示，如今人們又意識(shí)到，全球需求受到了影響，人們擔(dān)心第二波COVID-19和社會(huì)疏遠(yuǎn)措施可能會(huì)持續(xù)至少12個(gè)月。

在歐洲大陸，價(jià)格比NBP高。根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在歐洲流動(dòng)性最強(qiáng)的荷蘭市場(chǎng)，5月合約周一收于每百萬(wàn)英熱單位略高于2美元，周二跌至約1.90美元。

在亞洲，液化天然氣(LNG)價(jià)格每百萬(wàn)英熱單位略高于2美元。

咨詢公司雷斯塔能源的天然氣和電力市場(chǎng)主管卡洛斯?托里斯-迪亞茲表示，由于封鎖，英國(guó)4月份的天然氣需求一直非常低。

到目前為止，從3月到4月，電力部門的需求下降了34%，工業(yè)部門的需求下降了8%。由于天氣變暖，風(fēng)力變大，使得電力和住宅領(lǐng)域的天然氣需求更少，導(dǎo)致總需求的下降進(jìn)一步加劇。

英國(guó)價(jià)格疲軟的另一個(gè)原因是液化天然氣貨物不斷抵達(dá)英國(guó)。

一位天然氣貿(mào)易商表示，液化天然氣將在5月再次走強(qiáng)，貨物不可能取消，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在趕不上最后期限發(fā)貨。

據(jù)天然氣貿(mào)易商稱，來(lái)自卡塔爾的貨物數(shù)量強(qiáng)勁，在亞洲找不到立足之地的貨物被運(yùn)往歐洲，主要目的地是英國(guó)。

根據(jù)Refinitiv的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到本月底，預(yù)計(jì)將有12批來(lái)自卡塔爾的貨物在英國(guó)卸貨，比2019年4月多出兩批。

本月有四批來(lái)自美國(guó)的貨物抵達(dá)英國(guó)，而2019年4月只有一批，但自4月9日以來(lái)就沒(méi)有任何貨物抵達(dá)英國(guó)。

一位天然氣貿(mào)易商表示，如果您看一下絕對(duì)價(jià)格和生產(chǎn)成本，那么顯然會(huì)有更少的（美國(guó)）液化天然氣來(lái)。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

UK becomes world's cheapest natural gas market

Energy World

Britain has become the world's cheapest natural gas market as the front-month contract fell below its U.S. counterpart this week in a rare event caused by falling energy demand owing to the coronavirus outbreak.

The last time this happened was a decade ago in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007/08.

The U.S. Henry Hub gas price is usually considered the floor for European gas prices. The drop in UK gas below the U.S. price has made it not only the cheapest in Europe but globally.

The May contract on the UK's National Balancing Point (NBP) hub closed on Monday at $1.72 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), $0.20 below U.S. Henry Hub May futures , Refinitiv price data showed.

On Tuesday, the UK contract shed more value, trading around $1.63 per mmBtu in the afternoon.

"Today there was another realisation that demand has been affected globally and there is concern about a second wave of COVID-19 and social distancing measures could last for at least 12 months," said Wayne Bryan, director of European gas research at Refinitiv.

In continental Europe, prices are at premium to the NBP.

On the Dutch market, the most liquid in Europe, the May contract closed slightly above $2 per mmBtu on Monday and fell to about $1.90 per mmBtu on Tuesday, Refinitiv data showed.

In Asia, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices are slightly above $2 per mmBtu.

"UK natural gas demand in April has been very low due to lockdowns," said Carlos Torres-Diaz, head of gas and power markets at consultancy Rystad Energy.

"So far, demand from the power sector has dropped 34 per cent from March to April and 8 per cent in the industrial sector. The drop in total demand has now been exacerbated as the weather has turned warmer and windier resulting in even less gas demand for power and in the residential sector."

In the United States, industrial demand remained strong despite the coronavirus crisis and the market remained balanced, with strong injections into storage, Torres-Diaz added.

Another reason for the weak UK prices is the continued arrival of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Britain.

"LNG will be strong again (in May) with no possibility to cancel cargoes as it's too late to meet deadlines," one gas trader said.

Qatari arrivals have been strong, with cargoes that cannot find a home in Asia being delivered to Europe, mostly to Britain, gas traders said.

A total of 12 cargoes from Qatar are expected to be discharged in Britain by the end of the month, two more than in April 2019, Refinitiv data showed.

Four cargoes from the United States arrived in Britain this month, compared with one in April 2019, but there have been no cargoes since April 9.

"If you look at the absolute price and the production costs, then it is clear that less (U.S.) LNG will come," a gas trader said.