低油價(jià)是印度充實(shí)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備機(jī)會(huì)

據(jù)原油新聞2020年4月20日新德里報(bào)道，目前原油儲(chǔ)存是原油市場(chǎng)需求的唯一事情。疫情影響已使原油消費(fèi)消失，這迫使原油生產(chǎn)商和貿(mào)易商將更多的原油儲(chǔ)存在油輪上。雖然印度將用原油填滿其儲(chǔ)油庫(kù)，但儲(chǔ)油空間的缺乏意味著印度也失去了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。

世界第三大原油進(jìn)口國(guó)印度正計(jì)劃在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月里充實(shí)其戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備（SPR）。位于印度南部的3個(gè)具有儲(chǔ)存533萬(wàn)噸原油能力的基地——維沙卡帕特南、芒格洛爾和帕都爾——如今可以儲(chǔ)存原油的空間已不到一半。

時(shí)機(jī)近乎完美。分析師們一致認(rèn)為，油價(jià)將繼續(xù)承壓。能源資訊分析公司預(yù)計(jì)，布倫特原油未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的交易價(jià)格將低于每桶20美元，年底前將反彈至每桶40美元。即使按照最近的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)衡量，恢復(fù)的原油價(jià)格也會(huì)很低，這取決于人們從疫情中恢復(fù)規(guī)模和時(shí)間。

但就戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備而言，印度落后于主要消費(fèi)國(guó)及其亞洲鄰國(guó)，如日本和韓國(guó)：其中日本為5.28億桶，韓國(guó)為2.14億桶。相比之下，印度只有微不足道的3900萬(wàn)桶。對(duì)印度來(lái)說(shuō)，這相當(dāng)于在發(fā)生原油供應(yīng)中斷時(shí)只能提供9天的需求保障，而日本則是198天。

印度之所以不愿進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備是因?yàn)槠渌娉杀靖甙?，不僅要建造儲(chǔ)油罐和必要的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，還要維持和持有原油。

即便如此，考慮到印度對(duì)原油的依賴，印度內(nèi)閣日前批準(zhǔn)了再建650萬(wàn)噸的第二階段SPR。印度去年原油進(jìn)口量平均每天大約450萬(wàn)桶。

歐佩克+減產(chǎn)vs.庫(kù)存

全球原油庫(kù)存水平一直是原油市場(chǎng)供過(guò)于求的晴雨表，這也是為什么盡管歐佩克+達(dá)成了減產(chǎn)協(xié)議但評(píng)論員們?nèi)匀豢吹脑颉W佩克+協(xié)議要求歐佩克、俄羅斯和其他9個(gè)盟國(guó)在5月和6月每天削減970萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量，把今年下半年的原油日產(chǎn)量削減770萬(wàn)桶，然后把明年全年的原油日產(chǎn)量削減580萬(wàn)桶，直到2022年4月。

G20的能源部長(zhǎng)們?nèi)涨耙脖硎局С謿W佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議。國(guó)際能源署4月15日表示，中國(guó)、印度、美國(guó)和韓國(guó)將通過(guò)充實(shí)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備來(lái)支持這些全球行動(dòng)，從市場(chǎng)每天減少200多萬(wàn)桶原油，這將為商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存迅速增加的市場(chǎng)增加一些原油儲(chǔ)存空間。

IEA署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾表示：“這將為未來(lái)幾周供應(yīng)過(guò)剩的峰值提供更大原油儲(chǔ)存空間?！北攘_爾估計(jì)這些努力可能會(huì)從市場(chǎng)減少2億桶原油?！凹僭O(shè)未來(lái)3個(gè)月出現(xiàn)這種情況，這可能意味著每天從市場(chǎng)上將撤出多達(dá)200萬(wàn)桶的原油供應(yīng)?！?/span>

全球原油庫(kù)存水平將在5月份爆滿。陸上原油儲(chǔ)存空間正在迅速耗盡，現(xiàn)在參與者已經(jīng)把目光轉(zhuǎn)向估計(jì)有4億桶的浮式儲(chǔ)存，這將推高船只的運(yùn)費(fèi)率。全球迄今已有多達(dá)40艘超級(jí)油輪和20艘蘇伊士型油輪已簽訂長(zhǎng)期租賃合同。一些超大型油輪已被預(yù)訂儲(chǔ)存原油的時(shí)間超過(guò)了3年，這可能是有史以來(lái)最長(zhǎng)的海上原油儲(chǔ)存時(shí)間。

消耗陸上和海上的原油庫(kù)存可能需要數(shù)年時(shí)間，而歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議可能需要一段時(shí)間才能生效，屆時(shí)市場(chǎng)很有可能已經(jīng)收受到了損害。

高盛公司大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie日前告訴記者，隨著庫(kù)存耗盡，任何減產(chǎn)的時(shí)間生效以及減產(chǎn)數(shù)額與需求損失不匹配的事實(shí)，都意味著歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)可能“規(guī)模太小、來(lái)得太遲”。

李峻 編譯自 原油新聞

原文如下：

Low oil prices are an opportunity for India to stockpile: Fuel for Thought

Oil storage is about the only thing in demand in the crude market right

now. The coronavirus pandemic has obliterated consumption and forced producers and traders to store more oil on the water as land-based facilities near tank tops. While India will fill its caverns with crude, the lack of space means it’s also an opportunity lost.

The world’s third biggest oil importer is planning to fill up its strategic petroleum reserves in the coming months. India’s combined capacity of 5.33 million mt in three locations in southern Indian – Vishakhapatnam, Mangalore and Padur – is just over half full.

The timing is close to perfect. There is a consensus among analysts that oil prices will remain under pressure. Analytics sees Brent crude trading below $20/b over the next couple of months before rebounding to $40/b by the year-end. Even the recovery price is low by recent standards and depends on the shape and timing of the recovery from coronavirus as people return to their cars.

But as far as SPR is concerned, India is behind major consuming countries and its Asian neighbours such as Japan and South Korea：Japan’s SPR is 528 million barrels and South Korea has 214 million barrels. That compares to a paltry 39 million barrels for India. For India, this equates to just 9 days of cover in the event of a disruption compared with 198 days for Japan at the other end of the spectrum.

India’s reluctance stems from the high costs of involved, not only in building out the tanks and necessary infrastructure, but also in maintaining and holding the oil.

That said, the Indian Cabinet has approved another 6.5 million mt of SPR under the second phase given the country’s reliance on oil. India’s crude imports averaged around 4.5 million b/d in 2019.

OPEC+ cut vs. stocks

It is global storage levels that have been acting as a barometer of the oil market glut, and these are the reason commentators remain bearish despite the orchestrated production cut deal from OPEC+. The deal calls on OPEC, Russia and nine other allies to cut 9.7 million b/d of crude production in May and June, ramping down to 7.7 million b/d for the second half of 2020, and then 5.8 million b/d for all of 2021 through April 2022.

G20 energy ministers have also lent their support to the production cut pact. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that India, US and South Korea would take up to 2 million b/d out of the market by filling up their strategic reserves to support these global efforts, which would add some headroom to a market filling up quickly in commercial stocks.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “This will provide greater headroom for the surplus supply peak in the coming weeks,” estimating these efforts could take out 200 million barrels. “Assuming they happen in the next three months this could represent as much as 2 million b/d of supply withdrawn from the market.”

Analytics sees global storage levels bursting full in May. Space on land is running out fast and now participants have turned to the estimated 400 million barrels of floating storage pushing up freight rates for ships. It estimates up to 40 supertankers and 20 Suezmaxes are already placed on long-term charter. Some supertankers have been booked to store crude for up to three years, potentially the longest ever duration for floating storage.

Draining the stockpiles on land and sea may take years and with any production cut deal likely to take time to take effect, market forces are likely to have done the damage by then.

Goldman Sachs’head of commodities research Jeff Currie told Platts last week that with storage running out, the time it takes for any production cut to take effect and the fact that the reduction won’t match up to the loss in demand, means it could be “too little, too late” for the oil market. It’s a similar view shared by Analytics.

The same could be said for India’s plans to store crude despite its good intentions.