今年全球或取消一半以上許可證出售招標(biāo)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)奧斯陸報(bào)道，挪威能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）發(fā)表的影響分析報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，由于受到疫情和油價(jià)戰(zhàn)的綜合影響，今年全球超過(guò)一半回合的許可證出售招標(biāo)計(jì)劃可能被取消。與2019年的水平相比，今年全球獲得許可證的新的海上探區(qū)面積可能減少大約60%，陸上探區(qū)面積可能減少30%。

今年原本將會(huì)是油氣勘探的又一個(gè)豐收年，全球大約45個(gè)國(guó)家將至少啟動(dòng)52輪勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)，其中大約60%是海上地區(qū)。與去年的69輪相比，今年預(yù)期的許可證出售招標(biāo)輪數(shù)有所下降，但這并不意味著發(fā)放新許可證的國(guó)家數(shù)目減少了，而是由于巴西、烏克蘭、印度和美國(guó)等幾個(gè)國(guó)家在去年已進(jìn)行了多輪許可證出售招標(biāo)。

雷斯塔能源公司在其分析報(bào)告中評(píng)估了這些回合的許可證出售招標(biāo)，并把它們分為三類：可能回合招標(biāo)、暫定回合招標(biāo)和不可能回合招標(biāo)。

雷斯塔能源公司高級(jí)上游分析師阿蒂沙·馬哈詹說(shuō)：“不太可能回合招標(biāo)的次數(shù)占了總數(shù)的54%，這對(duì)全球勘探活動(dòng)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的跡象。很多因素加在一起讓這些回合招標(biāo)不可能繼續(xù)，包括油價(jià)下跌，全球近20%的投資削減，疫情造成的熟練技術(shù)人員的缺乏，在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下被證明缺乏吸引力的財(cái)政制度以及潛在參與企業(yè)缺乏興趣。

在歐洲，今年不可能回合招標(biāo)主要出現(xiàn)在英國(guó)、烏克蘭、羅馬尼亞和德國(guó)。在南美洲，哥倫比亞、巴西、厄瓜多爾和多米尼加共和國(guó)今年的新回合招標(biāo)可能不會(huì)繼續(xù)進(jìn)行，而在亞洲，泰國(guó)、烏茲別克斯坦、緬甸和阿聯(lián)酋的新回合招標(biāo)可能會(huì)暫停。新西蘭迄今還沒(méi)有確定，而在非洲，象牙海岸、阿爾及利亞、坦桑尼亞、塞內(nèi)加爾、索馬里、利比里亞、加納、赤道幾內(nèi)亞、安哥拉、南蘇丹的新回合許可證出售招標(biāo)也可能暫停。

美國(guó)、蘇里南、埃及、俄羅斯等國(guó)今年新回合許可證出售招標(biāo)至今懸而未決，它們被標(biāo)記為暫定回合招標(biāo)。美國(guó)最近完成了其在墨西哥灣的第254輪招標(biāo)，數(shù)字技術(shù)在招標(biāo)中發(fā)揮了重要作用，出售過(guò)程進(jìn)行了現(xiàn)場(chǎng)直播。

在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月里，位于南美洲北部的蘇里南有了兩個(gè)重大石油發(fā)現(xiàn)，正在成為全球油氣勘探的熱點(diǎn)。在這些成功的基礎(chǔ)上，這個(gè)南美國(guó)家也許能夠繼續(xù)前進(jìn)，并結(jié)束一次成功的回合招標(biāo)。然而，蘇里南的經(jīng)濟(jì)是否將發(fā)揮作用取決于如何為參與公司制定未來(lái)的油價(jià)。

埃及是一個(gè)非常有前景的國(guó)家，埃及擁有對(duì)外開(kāi)放的許可證出售招標(biāo)，在這種情況下，我們可以看到擁有大量自由現(xiàn)金流的國(guó)際公司愿意參與這個(gè)國(guó)家的新回合招標(biāo)。俄羅斯在許可證出售招標(biāo)中均擁有當(dāng)?shù)氐膮⑴c者，因此這個(gè)國(guó)家可能仍會(huì)繼續(xù)按計(jì)劃進(jìn)行新回合招標(biāo)。

今年可能繼續(xù)進(jìn)行許可證出售回合招標(biāo)的國(guó)家包括馬來(lái)西亞、特立尼達(dá)和多巴哥、挪威、印度、黎巴嫩和加拿大等國(guó)。盡管目前的行業(yè)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)造成輕微的延誤，但這些國(guó)家看起來(lái)很有可能按計(jì)劃繼續(xù)他們的新回合許可證出售招標(biāo)。印度正計(jì)劃合并OALP(開(kāi)放探區(qū)許可證出售政策)與第5和6輪許可證出售招標(biāo)，而這些區(qū)塊將在7月份對(duì)外公開(kāi)拍賣。

加拿大計(jì)劃繼續(xù)推進(jìn)其近海拉布拉多地區(qū)海上勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)。特立尼達(dá)和多巴哥憑借其在2019年發(fā)現(xiàn)大約4億桶油當(dāng)量的重大勘探成功，似乎更愿意與該地區(qū)活躍的參與者中的利益相關(guān)方合作。

挪威打算在對(duì)所有成熟的許可證未出售探區(qū)的預(yù)定義地區(qū)(APA)回合招標(biāo)中繼續(xù)其年度許可證授出，并提議在現(xiàn)有區(qū)域增加36個(gè)挪威海深水區(qū)塊。

最初預(yù)計(jì)的52輪許可證出售招標(biāo)中的8輪已經(jīng)完成，分別是在巴巴多斯、加拿大(C-NLOPB 2020)、美國(guó)(第254輪租賃銷售)、加蓬、巴基斯坦、阿曼、澳大利亞和剛果共和國(guó)。

馬哈詹說(shuō)：“我們預(yù)計(jì)，與2019年相比，今年授出的探區(qū)面積將大幅減少。從百分比來(lái)看，今年授出的海上探區(qū)面積的減少可能與2014年至2015年近60%的減少幅度相當(dāng)，而與上次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后16%的減少幅度相比，今年授出的陸上探區(qū)面積可能減少近三分之一。”

馬哈詹說(shuō)：“我們的分析表明，今年全球授出的探區(qū)面積可能會(huì)低于2015年的水平，但仍高于2016年的水平。這一切都將取決于全球油氣公司的預(yù)算以及他們?cè)诋?dāng)前市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下承擔(dān)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和勘探承諾的意愿?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

More than half of 2020 licensing rounds set to be wiped out – Rystad Energy

More than half of the world’s planned licensing rounds are likely to be cancelled this year due to the combined effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, a Rystad Energy impact analysis forecasts. New licensed offshore acreage is likely to fall by about 60% and onshore acreage by 30% compared with 2019 levels.

This year was slated to be another remarkable year for exploration with about 45 countries launching at least 52 lease rounds, about 60% of them in offshore areas. The decline in the expected number of lease rounds compared to last year’s 69 was not a sign of fewer countries offering new licenses, but a result of several countries offering multiple rounds in 2019, including Brazil, Ukraine, India and the United States.

In its analysis, Rystad Energy has evaluated the rounds and distributed them in three categories: likely, tentative and unlikely to take place.

“The unlikely upcoming lease rounds represent around 54% – a worrisome sign for global exploration. A number of factors together make these rounds unlikely to go ahead, including the oil-price drop, a global cut in investments by almost 20%, a lack of skilled manpower due to the Covid-19 pandemic, fiscal regimes that are proving unattractive in the current environment, and a lack of interest among potential participating companies,“ says Rystad Energy’s senior upstream analyst Aatisha Mahajan.

In Europe, unlikely rounds are those of the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Romania and Germany. In South America, rounds in Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and the Dominican Republic may not go ahead, while in Asia rounds in Thailand, Uzbekistan, Myanmar and the UAE may be put on ice. New Zealand is also in doubt, and in Africa, licensing rounds in Ivory Coast, Algeria, Tanzania, Senegal, Somalia, Liberia, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, South Sudan and Nigeria may also be put on hold.

The United States, Suriname, Egypt, Russia and China make up the list of countries where licensing rounds hang in the balance and are marked as tentative. The United States recently concluded its lease round 254 in the Gulf of Mexico with digital technology playing a big role and the sale process was streamed live.

Suriname is developing into a hotspot for global exploration with two major discoveries in recent months. Riding on these successes, the South American nation might be able to go ahead and conclude a successful round. However, economics will play a role depending on how the future oil price is formulated for the participating companies.

Egypt is a very prospective region and has open-door licensing, under which we might witness the willingness to participate from companies with significant free cash flow. Russia have local players as the common bidders in licensing rounds and might therefore still go ahead with their scheduled rounds.

Licensing rounds that are likely to go ahead include countries such as Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago, Norway, India, Lebanon, and Canada. These countries look well on track to continue their lease rounds as scheduled, although the current industry volatility could cause slight delays. India is planning to combine the OALP (Open Acreage Licensing Policy) with Round 5&6, and these blocks will be up for grabs in July.

Canada plans to go ahead with its offshore Labrador region. Trinidad and Tobago is riding on its significant exploration success having discovered around 400 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2019 and seems to be better placed with interested parties among the active players in the region.

Norway intends to proceed with its annual awards in pre-defined areas (APA) round of all mature, unlicensed acreage, and has proposed adding 36 deepwater Norwegian Sea blocks to the available area.

Eight of the initially expected 52 licensing rounds have already been completed, in Barbados, Canada (C-NLOPB 2020), the US (Lease Sale 254), Gabon, Pakistan, Oman, Australia and Republic of the Congo.

“We expect to see a large drop in awarded acreage this year compared with 2019. In percentage terms, the drop in offshore acreage could match the nearly 60% decline seen from 2014 to 2015, while awarded onshore acreage could shrink by almost one-third compared with a 16% drop after the previous downturn,” adds Mahajan.

Our analysis indicates that global awarded acreage is likely to fall below 2015 levels this year, while staying above the level seen in 2016. All will depend on global oil and gas companies’ budgets and their appetite to take on new risk and exploration commitments in the current market environment.