全球海上鉆井市場(chǎng)面臨艱難考驗(yàn)

據(jù)4月20日今日油價(jià)報(bào)道，IHS Markit周一在其最新的《海上海事月刊》分析報(bào)告中稱，隨著各公司重新評(píng)估鉆井計(jì)劃，取消或終止海上合同，海上鉆井市場(chǎng)將成為受油價(jià)暴跌和需求崩打擊最嚴(yán)重的市場(chǎng)之一。

IHS Markit高級(jí)海事分析師Richard Sanchez周一表示，大大小小的勘探和生產(chǎn)（E&P）公司紛紛削減資本支出，近海供應(yīng)船(OSV)市場(chǎng)過剩產(chǎn)能將會(huì)增加，對(duì)日費(fèi)用率構(gòu)成下行壓力，預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個(gè)月對(duì)近海供應(yīng)船(OSV)的需求將產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

據(jù)IHS Markit稱，由于全球石油供應(yīng)過剩，未來幾個(gè)月將有更多的海上鉆探項(xiàng)目被推遲、停止，甚至取消。

韋斯特伍德全球能源集團(tuán)（Westwood Global Energy Group）表示，未來海上鉆井市場(chǎng)將面臨艱難時(shí)期。一個(gè)月前，韋斯特伍德RigLogix海上鉆井平臺(tái)信息服務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人Terry Childs表示：“假設(shè)油價(jià)和需求在未來幾個(gè)月持續(xù)走低，閑置鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量將是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。未行使期權(quán)的合同、當(dāng)前計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目的延遲、不可抗力聲明和其他合同終止都將導(dǎo)致鉆機(jī)閑置，未來閑置鉆井平臺(tái)的數(shù)量將在短期內(nèi)大幅增加。?！?/span>

Rystad Energy此前表示，油價(jià)暴跌可能導(dǎo)致企業(yè)推遲價(jià)值高達(dá)1310億美元的石油和天然氣項(xiàng)目，這些項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃在2020年獲得批準(zhǔn)。本月早些時(shí)候，Rystad Energy在一份影響分析報(bào)告中表示，今明兩年，海上鉆探商最多將有10%的合同被取消，這意味著他們的總收入將減少約30億美元。因此，即使是大型海上鉆探公司也可能面臨財(cái)務(wù)挑戰(zhàn)，可能需要重組。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Offshore Sector Reeling After Historic 300% Oil Price Crash

The offshore drilling market is set to be one of the worst-hit in the oil price crash and demand collapse, as companies are reassessing drilling programs and canceling or halting offshore contracts, IHS Markit said in its latest Offshore Marine Monthly analysis on Monday.

Demand for offshore supply vessels (OSV) is expected to take a hit in the coming months, as exploration and production (E&P) companies, big and small, rushed to cut capital expenditures (capex) following the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Richard Sanchez, Senior Marine Analyst at IHS Markit, said on Monday.

“E&P companies operating in the US Gulf have been historically quick to respond to falling oil prices. As offshore drilling rigs are idled and contracts are terminated early, excess capacity in the OSV spot market will grow, which puts downward pressure on day rates,” Sanchez added.

According to IHS Markit, more offshore drilling programs will be deferred, halted, or even outright canceled in the coming months amid the unprecedented global oil glut.

Westwood Global Energy Group also believes that the offshore drilling market faces tough times ahead. A month ago, Terry Childs, Head of Westwood’s RigLogix offshore rig intelligence service, said that “the number of idle rigs will increase substantially in short order.”

“Assuming low oil prices and COVID-19 continue in the coming months, the number of rigs going idle will be a key metric. Contracts where options are not exercised, delays to currently planned programs, and Force Majeure declarations and other contract termination options will all result in idle rigs.”

The price crash could lead to companies deferring as much as $131 billion worth of oil and gas projects slated for approval in 2020, Rystad Energy said in March.

Earlier this month, Rystad Energy said in an impact analysis that offshore drillers would see up to 10 percent of their contract volumes canceled this year and next, representing a combined loss of revenue of about $3 billion. According to the independent energy research firm, even the big offshore drillers could face financial challenges and may need restructuring.