減產(chǎn)對(duì)石油運(yùn)輸業(yè)產(chǎn)生巨大沖擊

據(jù)4月21日Neftegaz.RU.哥本哈根報(bào)道，歐佩克成員國(guó)及其盟友達(dá)成的每日減產(chǎn)970萬(wàn)桶的協(xié)議，可能不足以抵消需求大幅下降帶來(lái)的缺口，而且肯定會(huì)對(duì)油輪航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的影響。

波羅的海國(guó)際航運(yùn)公會(huì)（BIMCO）首席航運(yùn)分析師彼得桑德（Peter Sand）表示：“2020年第一季度是過(guò)去10年里原油油輪利潤(rùn)最高的季度之一，這有望為未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的挑戰(zhàn)提供流動(dòng)性緩沖。一旦減產(chǎn)開(kāi)始，盈利可能會(huì)慢慢陷入停滯?！?/span>

大型石油生產(chǎn)商監(jiān)督市場(chǎng)并協(xié)調(diào)減產(chǎn)，在一定程度上有序地推進(jìn)減產(chǎn)或者由個(gè)別公司推動(dòng)的突然減產(chǎn)，這是無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的，但個(gè)別公司的突然性減產(chǎn)更有可能導(dǎo)致全球范圍內(nèi)的混亂和大范圍的破產(chǎn)，這既不利于石油市場(chǎng)，也不利于油輪運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)。

英國(guó)咨詢公司Drewry認(rèn)為，如果歐佩克+以外的石油產(chǎn)量沒(méi)有顯著下降，5月和6月的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩規(guī)模將分別超過(guò)2000萬(wàn)桶/天和900萬(wàn)桶/天。在這種情況下，預(yù)計(jì)2020年第二季度初大約會(huì)有10- 13億桶的閑置陸上儲(chǔ)油能力將在5月底之前耗盡。進(jìn)而將在本季度末推高對(duì)浮式存儲(chǔ)的需求，6月份的過(guò)剩原油將每天耗費(fèi)4至5艘超大型油輪的儲(chǔ)能。

如果歐佩克+以外國(guó)家的石油產(chǎn)量下降約350萬(wàn)桶/天，而韓國(guó)、印度、中國(guó)和美國(guó)等國(guó)的SPR增加約2億桶，可用的閑置陸上儲(chǔ)油能力將可能吸收市場(chǎng)上部分過(guò)剩供應(yīng)。預(yù)計(jì)今年5月至6月，油輪市場(chǎng)的原油運(yùn)費(fèi)將較目前水平大幅下降。

此外，由于供應(yīng)過(guò)剩將限制油價(jià)在第二季度的上漲，目前用于浮式存儲(chǔ)的55艘超大型油輪和24艘蘇伊士型油輪中的大部分郵輪，都不太可能在第三季度的石油需求和價(jià)格出現(xiàn)可能復(fù)蘇的跡象之前，恢復(fù)活躍的貿(mào)易。在這種情況下，原油油輪市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)價(jià)將會(huì)飆升，因?yàn)楦∈絻?chǔ)存的增加將進(jìn)一步擠壓運(yùn)力。

雖然浮式儲(chǔ)能的增加能夠?qū)⒋罅慨a(chǎn)能從市場(chǎng)中抽走，但這不足以抵消需求下滑和產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的影響。BIMCO預(yù)計(jì)，2020年下半年市場(chǎng)或?qū)l(fā)生翻天覆地的變化。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Neftegaz.RU.

原文如下：

OPEC+ production cuts have dire implications for oil tankers

The agreement of the members of OPEC and its allies to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels of crude per day is not believed to be enough to offset the massive demand drop and will certainly have dire implications for the oil tanker shipping market.

“The 1st quarter of 2020 has been one of the most profitable quarters in the past decade for crude oil tankers, which will hopefully provide a liquidity buffer for the challenging months that lie ahead. Once the production cuts set in, the profitable journey is likely to grind to a halt,” says BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand.

“The real choice is between a somewhat orderly process of production cuts where the large oil producers monitor the markets and coordinate output reductions or – alternatively – an unpredictable process of abrupt cuts driven by individual companies that can no longer afford to produce at prevailing prices. The latter process will more likely lead to chaos and widespread bankruptcies across the globe that will benefit neither the oil nor the tanker markets,” Poten said.

UK-based consultancy Drewry believes that if oil production outside OPEC+ fails to observe a significant decline in production, the market will be in surplus by more than 20 mbpd in May and 9 mbpd in June, despite the production cut by OPEC+.

In such a scenario estimated spare onshore storage capacity of about 1-1.3 billion barrels at the beginning of 2Q20 will be exhausted by the end of May. This, in turn, will inflate the demand for floating storage towards the end of the quarter and surplus oil will absorb about 4-5 VLCCs per day in June.

If oil production in countries outside OPEC+ declines by about 3.5 mbpd and countries such as South Korea, India, China and the US increase SPR by around 200 million barrels, the available spare onshore storage capacity will probably manage to absorb excess supply from the market. If this proves to be the case. Drewry expects freight rates in the crude tanker market to drop significantly in May-June from current levels.

Additionally, as oversupply will cap any surge in oil prices in 2Q20, most of the 55 VLCCs and 24 Suezmaxes currently locked in floating storage are unlikely to return to active trade before any possible recovery in oil demand and prices in 3Q20. In such circumstances freight rates in the crude tanker market will hit the roof, as a rise in floating storage will squeeze tonnage supply even further.

While the uptick of floating storage takes a substantial chunk of capacity out of the market, providing some silver living, it will not be enough to offset the sliding demand and overcapacity. according to BIMCO. Therefore, it is expected that the 2nd half of 2020 will face a radically different reality than the 1st half of the year.?